NFL Picks for Week 14: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions

Published: December 7, 2024 at 6:45 pm EST

Caleb Williams being helped up by his offensive linemen — Nov 28, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) gets helped off the turf by offensive tackle Larry Borom (75) and guard Teven Jenkins (76) in the fourth quarter against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Want some help in betting the rest of the Week 14 slate of games in the 2024-25 NFL season?
My SBD formula and I are offering the teams we believe can pull off an upset in Week 14
See our Week 14 NFL picks below

Week 14 has already treated us to one of the best games of the year, but it still has 12 more to come across Sunday and Monday. If you’re looking for some help in betting the rest of Week 14, or just want your biases/leans confirmed, I have gathered my NFL picks as well as my SBD formula’s computer picks for each of the remaining games.

I went 1-0 on my upset picks from last week, winning 1.43 units. My SBD formula went 3-1 on its picks, winning 2.93 units. (The extra pick was the result of the Seahawks turning into underdogs. I tweeted it out Sunday AM.) Here’s how we, or at least I, plan to keep the money coming in for Week 14!

Week 14 NFL Picks

Expert NFL Moneyline Picks	Computer NFL Moneyline Picks
Browns over Steelers (+260 at FanDuel)	—
Bears over 49ers (+170 at ESPN Bet)	—
Chargers over Chiefs (+180 at DraftKings)	—

I have two upset picks for Week 14, but my formula is predicting zero upsets this week. It does, however, have a couple very close margins of victory. Before I go any further, though, I want to urge the importance of line shopping before you lock in any of the picks above. The moneyline odds I have included were the best at the time of writing this. You can find the best odds available at any time using our NFL odds page.

Though my SBD formula has all favorites winning in Week 14, here are some games where it’s predicting a close game (and you could potentially take a swing):

Titans to beat the Jaguars by 3.1 points
Dolphins to beat the Jets by 1.6 points
Cardinals to beat the Seahawks by 1.2 points
49ers to beat the Bears by 1.7 points
Chiefs to beat the Chargers by 0.3 points

You’ll notice two of the above are upsets I am betting, which makes me feel even better about the pick!

If you wanted more than moneyline picks, SBD has Week 14 covered from many angles. You can check out Zach Reger’s Week 14 NFL picks against the spread, and the Week 14 NFL props John Hyslop likes the best. But you can also keep reading here if you’d like my analysis on each of my three picks above.

Browns Over Steelers

This is the only one of my three NFL picks this week where I don’t feel the team I am betting has a better than 50% chance to win the game. However, I think they have a much better chance to win this game than the moneyline odds suggest. The +260 odds FanDuel is offering on the Browns to win implies a 27.8% probability. I think Cleveland’s probability of winning this game is around 45%.

There are three main reasons I think this game is close to a coin-flip:

The Browns just beat the Steelers two weeks ago
Cleveland’s offense is a capable unit without Deshaun Watson under center
Pittsburgh lacks the ability to pull away from teams who aren’t horrible

Furthering the first point above, Cleveland just picked up a win when hosting Pittsburgh in Week 12. The Browns won 24-19 while committing three turnovers.

On the second point, the Jameis Winston experience has had its ups and downs, as is to be expected with Winston, but even the downs have been better than what we saw Deshaun Watson do with this offense. Cleveland has now scored 24+ points in three of the five games Winston has started, which is a milestone they never achieved in their first seven games with Watson – their game-high for points was 18. What’s even more impressive about that stat is the defenses he has done it against. He scored 29 points against the Ravens (sort of impressive), 24 against the Steelers, and 32 against the Broncos.

On the final point, Pittsburgh has yet to show me they can put a decent team away. They just win close games. We saw them beat up on the Raiders and Jets, two of the worst teams in the league, who both suffer from awful QB play, while six of their other seven wins have been by one score, two of them being by less than three points. I think we’ll see Pittsburgh struggle to put the Browns away, as long as Jameis doesn’t throw too many pick-sixes, giving Winston an opportunity to win this game late.

The uncertainty around George Pickens’ status (at the time of writing this article anyways) could also be a major factor. Pickens is the Steelers’ best offensive weapon, and I don’t think they would be able to move the ball as well without him.

Pick: Browns moneyline (+260 at FanDuel)

Bears Over 49ers

I truly thought this game would be a pick’em after what we have seen from the 49ers over the past three weeks. I appreciate that Brock Purdy did not play in their 28-point loss to the Packers, but he did play in their home loss to the Seahawks as well as the 25-point loss to the Bills.

One player the 49ers will be without is Christian McCaffrey, whose season is now over after injuring his knee in the snow last week. The 49ers offense, which has largely relied upon a good running game, will now have to turn to rookie Isaac Guerendo, as Jordan Mason will also not be available. Guerendo has great size and speed, but we aren’t really sure how comfortable he is in Kyle Shanahan’s offense yet – at least not on an every-down basis. So, this offense might still be out of sorts as their rookie running back gets comfortable.

It’s also sounding like both Trent Williams and Nick Bosa are doubtful, which are big blows to both sides of the ball for San Francisco.

On the other side of this game, we have a Bears team that has now lost six games in a row, but have at least shown a lot of fight over the last three weeks since their offensive coordinator was fired. Their past three games have all been against divisional opponents, which you could argue make up three of the top four teams in the NFC right now, and each loss was by three points or less.

Now they head into Week 14 with their head coach just having been fired after their inexcusable clock mismanagement that cost them a chance to send their Thanksgiving game with the Lions to overtime. I think we’re going to see more effort out of this Bears team than we have since their demoralizing last-second loss to the Commanders in Week 8.

Chicago’s offense will still be a bit of a rollercoaster as Caleb Williams continues to learn how to play QB in the pros, not to mention their offensive line needs some work, but their defense has a lot of talent and I think will return to being a feared unit. I like them to give Brock Purdy hell all afternoon.

Pick: Bears moneyline (+170 at ESPN Bet)

Chargers Over Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs played arguably two of the four worst teams in the league over the past two weeks, and failed to beat either of them by more than three points. They should have lost their Black Friday game with the Raiders, but got incredibly lucky that the Raiders suffered some sort of miscommunication that led to an unexpected snap that bounced off their QB’s shoulders for a fumble.

Prior to those two games, the Chiefs lost to the Bills by nine points, beat the Broncos by two points thanks to a blocked field goal as time expired, and needed overtime to beat the Buccaneers. It’s not irrational to say the Chiefs are only a few really lucky breaks away from being 7-5. If you want to go back further, you could say they were also on the verge of losing Weeks 1 and 2 to the Ravens and Bengals, respectively.

This has been, in my opinion, the least impressive Chiefs team we have seen with Patrick Mahomes under center. However, they continue to just get wins. They have just simply gotten it done. But I’m not sure they can in Week 14 against the Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh’s squad has given up the fewest points in the NFL, and they are constantly winning the turnover battle. The Chargers have only turned the ball over six times, which is fewest in the league, and they have forced 17 turnovers. In what I suspect will be a pretty slow-paced, defensive battle, I give the nod to LA’s defense over Kansas City’s.

After a bit of a quiet game last week from Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense last week, in what was their first game without JK Dobbins, I think they’ll have a better answer Sunday night.

Pick: Chargers moneyline (+180 at DraftKings)

Matt McEwan

Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert

With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.

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