NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 14

• I went 7-5 in my NFL Week 13 ATS picks and 2-1 in my best bets last week
• In NFL Week 14, I am looking at two underdogs and one favorite for my best bets
• Keep reading for all of SBD’s Week 14 expert ATS picks

There are just five weeks left in the regular season. NFL Week 14 is also the last week of the season with byes then every team will be in action from here on out. After a couple of weeks of struggling against the spread, underdogs bounced back a little bit last week and went 9-7 ATS overall. In my best bets for Week 14, there are two underdogs and one favorite that I am targeting to cover the spread.

See below for all my NFL ATS picks for Week 14.

NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread

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Week 14 ATS Pick #1: Browns +6.5 vs Steelers

If you have been keeping up with this article every week, you know how much I love underdogs in AFC North matchups. Three weeks ago, I bet on the Steelers vs. the Ravens and won, and two weeks ago, I bet on the Browns on Thursday Night Football vs. the Steelers. Last week, Steelers +3 was one of my best bets against the Bengals, and they won outright. I also bet on the Browns vs the Ravens earlier in the year to cover as big favorites. Since 2018, underdogs in AFC North matchups are 50-31 (61.73%) against the spread, so if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Underdogs in AFC North matchups are now 50-31 (61.73%) against the spread since 2018 ‼️

Steelers +3 ✅ pic.twitter.com/L1sZIKWJVU

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) December 1, 2024

Now the Browns have not won in Pittsburgh since 2003, but we do not need them to win, we just need them to keep this game close. Kevin Stefanski has also been good on short rest. Cleveland lost and failed to cover the spread last week in miserable fashion on Monday Night Football, but they still played well and had a real shot of winning that game. Under Stefanski, the Browns are 9-2 straight up and 8-3 against the spread when playing on short rest.

These two teams know each other very well, so I am going to bet on the Browns to keep this game closer than the spread suggests. If  Jameis Winston can limit the pick sixes and Cleveland’s defense can make a few plays, this will be yet another close AFC North battle. I will take the Browns plus the points on Sunday.

• Pick: Browns +6.5 (-110)

Week 14 ATS Pick #2: Dolphins -5.5 vs Jets

The Jets have been atrocious down the stretch. After beating the Texans on Halloween, they have lost (and failed to cover) in three straight games. New York is just 3-9 against the spread this season and 1-8 ATS over their last nine games.

Since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury, the Dolphins have looked good. They are 4-2 against the spread in those six games, and the offense has averaged 27 points per game. I am not taking their Thanksgiving game into much consideration as it is well-known that the Dolphins do not play well in the cold. For this game, they are back in sunny Miami to play a division opponent that they know well. Miami has dominated this series of late winning seven of the last eight matchups.

We have also seen the Dolphins beat up on bad teams. In his career, Tua is 22-8 straight up and 19-11 against the spread when playing teams below .500. He is also 14-7 ATS against these teams at home. The once-great Jets defense has given up at least 26 points to offenses not as good as Miami’s. I will take the Dolphins to cover the spread at home on extended rest.

• Pick: Dolphins -5.5 (-112)

Week 14 ATS Pick #3: Rams +3.5 vs Bills

I am taking a deep breath and trusting the situation for this bet. The Bills have won seven in a row and just beat the Chiefs and 49ers in their last two games. They are playing great football right now and are admittingly terrifying to bet against, but the Rams offer some value in this spot.

The NFL odds have the Rams as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Bills on Sunday. Buffalo will be a popular bet on Sunday, and the NFL betting splits show 80% of the betting handle is on the Bills to cover the spread at the time of publishing.

NFL teams receiving the most bets at @DKSportsbook 🎟️

1. Bills -3.5
2. Chargers +4
3. Bears +3.5
4. Dolphins -5.5
5. Eagles -13 pic.twitter.com/rq0NjZPLX4

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) December 6, 2024

As mentioned earlier, the Bills just played the Chiefs and 49ers to clinch their division. Next week, Buffalo plays the Lions in what could potentially be the game of the year. This is a combination of a letdown and a look-ahead spot for the Bills. The Rams on the other hand are 6-6 and battling for a playoff spot in a tight NFC West race. I like getting over a field goal at home with a talented Rams team that has something to play for.

• Pick: Rams +3.5 (-112)