The 2024 NFL regular season is down to its final quarter and odds are out for Week 15. I have narrowed down the lines and found my three favorite NFL Week 15 ATS picks to target early on. The week starts with the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers meeting on TNF as both try to track down Seattle at the top of the NFC West. Coincidentally, that’s also where my NFL Week 15 ATS picks commence.

Early NFL Week 15 ATS Picks

In Week 15, I am taking three home teams to cover, starting with the undervalued Niners on Thursday Night Football and continuing with two squads playing out the string in the early window on Sunday.

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NFL Week 15 ATS Pick #1: 49ers -2.5 (-110) Over Rams

The Niners (6-7, 4-3 home, 5-8 ATS) have had a hard-luck season, battling significant injuries at every turn and suffering multiple late-game collapses. But against the odds, they still have a an outside chance to make the postseason. Brock Purdy and company ended a three-game losing streak in style last Sunday, stomping the Bears 38-13, and certainly didn’t look like a fatigued bunch playing out the string.

The Rams are also coming off an impressive performance, edging out the Bills 44-42 at home and overcoming a record-setting day from Josh Allen in the process. But we’re still talking about a team with a -34 point differential going on the road to face a 49ers group that’s getting a bit healthier and was picked by 99% of pundits to repeat as NFC West champs. I expect the Week 15 NFL odds to move in San Francisco’s direction as the week goes on and will very gladly take the Niners laying less than a field goal.

NFL Week 15 ATS Pick #2: Browns +7.5 (-155) Over Chiefs

The Chiefs (12-1, 5-1 away, 5-8 ATS) are 6-1 straight-up in their last seven games but haven’t covered a single one of those games. They are scraping by on last-second field goals and stingy defense.

That’s not to say Patrick Mahomes won’t put up a 40-burger sooner or later, but I seriously doubt this is going to be the week. First, it’s on the road against a supremely talented Cleveland defense. Second, temperatures are going to be near-freezing with rain in the forecast. It won’t be the whiteout that the Steelers and Browns played in a couple weeks ago, but the conditions certainly won’t be conducive to prolific air yardage, which is the easiest way to cover a big spread.

The Browns (3-10, 2-4 home, 4-9 ATS) have an ugly win/loss record but have played reasonably well at home in the second half of the season. In their last four home games, they’re 2-2 straight-up with wins over Pittsburgh (24-19) and Baltimore (29-24), a close loss to Cincinnati (21-14), and a stinker against the Chargers (27-10).

I’m betting this line up a 1.5 points to get over a TD and taking the Browns at a reasonable -155.

NFL Week 15 ATS Pick #3: Panthers -3.0 (+120) vs Cowboys

The Carolina Panthers (3-10, 2-5 home, 6-7 ATS) are arguably the most-improved team since the start of the season. They are only 2-3 straight-up over the last five weeks – including three straight losses – but 5-0 against the number. All three of those setbacks were one-score games against division-leading opponents: 30-27 vs Kansas City, 26-23 OT vs Tampa Bay, and 22-16 at Philadelphia. Think of Carolina as the anti-Chiefs. No matter the opponent, they’re putting up a decent fight.

Dallas (5-7, 4-2 away, 4-8 ATS), meanwhile, has shown a surprising amount of fight over the last two weeks, stunning the Commanders in Washington (34-26) on Nov. 24 thanks largely to special-teams play, and then taking care of the lowly Giants (27-20) on Thanksgiving. But the Cowboys will be making a long road trip on a short week after hosting the Bengals on MNF in Week 14. Only three teams in the league has a worse ATS record than the disappointing Cowboys. I expect Dallas to lose on MNF tonight, which will de facto eliminate them from the NFL playoff bracket (if not mathematically), which will in turn lead to an ugly effort in Carolina six days later.

The post NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Neither the Cincinnati Bengals (4-8, 3-3 away, 6-6 ATS) nor Dallas Cowboys (5-7, 1-5 home, 4-8 ATS) is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but it would take a miracle for either to crack the field and their Monday Night Football meeting on Dec. 9 (8:20 pm ET) will likely feature two rosters that have resigned themselves to a long offseason. That doesn’t mean we won’t see fireworks, though. Cincinnati is a neutral observer’s wet dream: all offense, no defense, and my Bengals vs Cowboys same-game parlay banks on Joe Burrow and company continuing to light-up the scoreboard.

Bengals vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay

All three legs of today’s Bengals/Cowboys SGP are -184 or shorter on their own, but all three together add-up to a +105 price tag.

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Bengals vs Cowboys SGP Pick #1: Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TDs

The first leg is going to be the most difficult to achieve, at least based on the odds. But Joe Burrow has thrown multiple TD passes in nine of 12 games so far this season and leads the NFL with 30 through 12 games (2.5 TDs per game).

Dallas’ secondary isn’t the weakest point of the Cowboy defense, but it isn’t one of the elite pass defenses in the NFL either. Playing on the fast track at AT&T Stadium, I love the chances of Burrow connecting with his star-studded receiving corps for multiple majors. I’m not in love with -184 odds, which carry an implied probability of 64.79, but that’s still a reasonable number based on Burrows numbers this year.

CIN vs DAL Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Over 41.5 Points

Chris Amberley’s Bengals vs Cowboys prediction listed over 49.5 points as his best bet for the game. I’ve lowered that number to a miniscule 41.5 before including it as the second leg in tonight’s SGP. Each of Cincinnati’s last fives games has sailed over that number. Each of Cincinnati’s last four games has featured at least 61 points and have averaged 64.3 PPG.

Dallas games have been considerably lower scoring than Cincinnati games this year, but even the low-scoring cowboys have had three straight games go over 44 points, and Cincinnati tends to dictate pace of play, for lack of a better term. The Bengal offense is as lethal as ever with Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown all healthy. They score fast and often, forcing opponents to keep up.

And that’s where the uber-compliant Cincinnati defense comes into play. Only the Carolina Panthers (29.8 PPG) are giving up more points than the Bengals (28.3 PPG) this year. John Hyslop is confident enough in the porousness of the Cincinnati defense that he included Cooper Rush over 1.5 passing touchdowns in his best Bengals vs Cowboys player props.

Bengals vs Cowboys SGP Pick #3: Ja’Marr Chase Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

LSU alums Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson have separated themselves from the field as the top-two receivers in the NFL, and Chase has a chance to feast on a mediocre Dallas secondary tonight. I’ve kept his receiving-yards target at an extremely manageable 50 yards, a number he’s hit in 10 of 12 games this season, and which is barely half of his average receiving yards per game (95.2).

The post Bengals vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay for Monday Night Football appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

We’ve got one more shot at greatness in Week 14 and dammit, I’m taking it. Especially since we’re talking about the Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys. Good/decent offenses taking on bad defenses. It’s the gold standard in player prop betting. All we have to do is find the matchup we like and bam, we’re all getting Juan Soto money. Lucky for us, I’ve already done the mental simulations on this thing. What I found was shocking. We’re looking at two bets with a combined chance of losing hovering around 0.0%. We’re on the verge of greatness here people. Feels good.

Bengals vs Cowboys Player Prop Picks

Both of today’s props focus on Cowboys going over their totals at plus-money, starting with tight end Jake Ferguson, who’s returning from injury, and ending with QB Cooper Rush.

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Jake Ferguson Is Back

It’s been a tough couple weeks for Jake Ferguson. Our guy suffered a concussion against the Houston Texans on November 18th and hasn’t played since. Lucky for us, he has been cleared by doctors to give it a go against the Cincinnati Bengals tonight.

I’m sure Jake is also happy to have this thing behind him. Concussions are not a joke.

Jake Ferguson said the concussion he suffered had him so chemically imbalanced that he woke up one night and burst into tears because he couldn’t find his phone.

“I hadn’t cried like that since my dog died in middle school. I stopped like, ‘wth is wrong with me’?’”

The…

— Patrik [No C] Walker (@VoiceOfTheStar) December 6, 2024

People don’t realize how good Jake Ferguson has been this season. Dude has really only played eight games yet he has caught 43 passes. It’s obviously a lost season for the Dallas Cowboys given their record and injury situation but Jake has been a bright spot. He’s like a discount Rob Gronkowski.

Tonight the Cowboys will see Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals which should be fun. For us, not the Cowboys. My guess is Dallas will have no shot of stopping the Bengals’ offense so they’ll be put in spots where they have to throw the ball more than they’d like to keep up. That’s where Jake comes in.

On the season, only six teams in the entire NFL have given up more receiving yards to the tight end position. Every single one of those teams has played more games than the Bengals. By the end of tonight, after Jake baptizes these guys, the Bengals will be a bottom-three team at defending the tight end position. Feels right.

• The Pick: Jake Ferguson 40+ Receiving Yards (+105) at DraftKings

Cooper Rush Might Not Stink

Everyone is saying “Cooper Rush stinks” and I’m here to tell you, I don’t he think he does. He’s the kid who went down 49-14 in the 2014 Bahamas Bowl to Western Kentucky. Instead of just giving up, he brought his team all the way back and was a two-point conversion away from winning that game. The guy is a winner.

I mean, just look at the balls he throwing these days. Kid has moxie. Can’t teach moxie.

Cooper Rush during the Cowboys two-game win streak:

442 yards
3 TD
0 INT

Cowboys vs. Bengals tonight on NFL Game Pass on DAZNpic.twitter.com/7Z5mwgRFrh

— NFL on DAZN (@NFLonDAZN) December 9, 2024

Cooper has only been starting for three games and has had mixed results. I know the haters are going to say that his yardage total has gone down every game since taking over for Dak Prescott but as usual, the haters have no idea what they’re talking about. Silly haters.

For starters, he went 350+ against the Houston Texans. That’s impressive. Guys who stink don’t do that. They just don’t. Then the next week he threw two touchdown passes against the Washington Commanders. After that, he had a dud against the New York Giants on Thanksgiving Day but in his defense, it looked like the Cowboys thought they could just run the ball all day against New York. It worked.

Tonight, the Cowboys will likely have to keep pace with one of the NFL’s best offenses in the Cincinnati Bengals. Lucky for us, teams have been able to do that so far this season and it’s mostly been through the air. In fact, each of the last three quarterbacks that have matched up with the Bengals have thrown at least two touchdowns. I think Cooper Rush makes it four straight tonight. Feels right.

• The Pick: Cooper Rush Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+136) at FanDuel
• 2024 SBD MNF Results – 12-13 (+3.03 Units)

Also see: Bengals vs Cowboys Prediction

The post Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys Player Props – Best Prop Bets for MNF Week 14 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Before the season, most experts would have predicted a Week 14 Bengals (4-8) vs Cowboys (5-7) Monday Night Football showdown would be ripe with playoff implications. Instead, this is just a matchup between two teams already looking ahead to next year. Cincinnati and Dallas have been two of the most disappointing teams in the league so far. Online sportsbooks expect the Cowboys misery to continue, as they’ve pegged the Bengals as sizeable chalk in the latest football betting lines.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys Odds

Cincinnati is currently favored by 5.5-points, after opening at -6. Bettors are all-in on the Bengals in this spot, as Joe Burrow and Co. are drawing 72% of the spread wagers and 87% of the handle. 

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Total-wise, the action is just as lopsided according to the NFL public betting percentages: 59% of the over/under tickets are backing over 49.5, which is accounting for 83% of the total money.

Kickoff for this primetime clash is set for 8:15 pm ET from AT&T Stadium, in Dallas, TX with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Expect Little Defense

Both of these teams have been cash cows for over bettors this season. Only Baltimore’s games have flown over the total more often than Cincy’s contests (75%), while 67% of the Cowboys games have also gone over.

We’ll get to how bad the Bengals defense is momentarily, but first let’s start with the matchup advantages their offense can exploit. Burrow enters Week 14 as the NFL’s leader in passing yards and touchdowns, while ranking fourth in passer rating. He’s thrown at least three touchdowns in four straight starts, leading the Bengals to an average 35 points per game during that stretch.

"Joe Burrow should be MVP."@RSherman_25 speaking his mind pic.twitter.com/a091QijzPo

— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 6, 2024

Ja’Marr Chase meanwhile, is having an incredible season that not enough people are talking about. Chase leads the league in receiving yards and touchdowns, scoring four more times than any other wideout. He’s hauled in six touchdowns in his last three contests, to go along with 24 catches.

Dallas rates out better versus the pass than the run, but Burrow has excelled no matter how difficult the matchup has been this season. On the off chance the Cowboys can slow down Burrow and Chase, running back Chase Brown might go nuclear.

Brown has at least 86 rushing yards or a touchdown in five straight starts. Dallas’ run D allows the fifth most yards per carry, and the sixth most overall production to enemy backs.

As good as Cincy’s offense is, it hasn’t been good enough to overcome a porous defense. The Bengals have allowed at least 35 points in four of five games. They’ve lost four times in 2024 when scoring at least 33 points, and are fresh off being humiliated by Russell Wilson and the Steelers.

Russ cooked them for 414 passing yards, including over 250 yards after the catch. Cincinnati grades out bottom-10 in tackling for the season, and bottom-5 in both pass rush and coverage per Pro Football Focus.

Bengals vs Cowboys Prediction

That’s music to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys offense ears. After weeks of dismal offensive performances, with both Dak Prescott and Rush under center, the latter has righted the ship. Dallas is averaging over 30 points per game in their last two outings, and Rush is a big reason for it.

He’s completed 66% of his throws for 442 yards and 3 TD. Most importantly however, he hasn’t committed a turnover. A competent passing game has paved the way for some rushing success as well, which has sorely been lacking. Rico Dowdle has ripped off nearly 200 yards over the past two outings, finding the end zone last week versus Giants.

The #Bengals defense has given up 34+ points in a game SIX times this season pic.twitter.com/EJv3n1A9qP

— Jacob Matthew (@JakeMatthewList) December 4, 2024

You could argue that big outputs versus the Commanders and Giants, Dallas’ last two opponents, is nothing to brag about, but both grade out significantly better than this Bengals defense. You have to go all the way back to Week 7 to find an opponent that hasn’t scored at least 24 points against them, and we shouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys fly over that number on Monday.

Bengals vs Cowboys Pick: Over 49.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The post Bengals vs Cowboys Odds, Picks and Prediction for Monday Night Football (Week 14) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Just four weeks remain in the 2024 NFL regular season and all the byes are over. With another Sunday almost in the books, oddsmakers have posted the NFL Week 15 odds for all 16 games on the schedule, which includes a Monday Night Football two-pack featuring the Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings, and Atlanta Falcons vs Las Vegas Raiders. The table below lists the opening Week 15 NFL odds, including spread, total, and moneyline, for all 16 games.

Opening NFL Week 15 Odds

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Biggest NFL Week 15 Point Spread: Ravens (-13.5) vs Giants

The biggest Week 15 spread comes from the Ravens vs Giants clash at MetLife Stadium, where Baltimore is a 13.5-point road favorite. No other Week 15 spread is over a touchdown.

The Giants have turned into the laughing stock of the league this year, tied with the Raiders for the worst record in the NFL at 2-11. Losers of eight straight, New York has scored just 38 points in its last three games combined, most-recently falling 14-11 at home to New Orleans in Week 14. Lest you think the G-Men should get a few points for home-field advantage, they are now 0-7 straight-up at home and 2-5 against the spread.

The 8-5 Ravens are coming off a Week 14 bye.

Highest NFL Week 15 Game Total: Bills vs Lions (52.5)

As with the ATS odds, the game totals show one matchup way higher than the others. The Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions heavyweight clash in Motown has opened with a game total of 52.5, which is five points higher than any other Week 15.

To some extent, the Lions’ inflated totals were still a product off their all-offense-no-defense approach from last season. Their D, despite significant injuries, has played much better this season. But it showed signs of cracking in Week 14’s 34-31 shootout victory over the Packers, and the Bills have one of the best scoring offenses in the league, averaging 29.5 PPG prior to their Week 14 meeting with the Rams.

Lowest NFL Week 15 Game Total: Falcons vs Raiders (41.5)

The lowest total on the board is 41.5 in Falcons vs Raiders, which wraps up Week 15 as the second kickoff of the MNF twin bill. It’s somewhat surprising to see this as the lowest total. As bad as the Las Vegas offense is (18.2 PPG), it’s defense is worse, surrendering 27.8 PPG, second-most in the league.

Atlanta is also below average in scoring on offense (21.4 PPG, 19th) but, like the Falcons, are even worse on defense (24.3 PPG, 22nd).

The post Opening NFL Week 15 Odds – Spread, Total, Moneyline for All 16 Games appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Through 13 weeks of the NFL campaign, Jim Harbaugh has his Chargers at 8-and-4 in his debut season with the team, having won five of six. Andy Reid and company are 11-and-1, good for top spot in the AFC as they battle for a first round bye in the postseason. As the Chargers meet the Chiefs on Sunday, December 8th from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO, it’s the home squad that’s a 4-point favorite in the Week 14 NFL odds. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET.

Chargers vs Chiefs Player Props

Patrick Mahomes’ passing yardage line is set at 246.5, while Justin Herbert’s is 230.5. Ladd McConkey has the highest receiving-yardage total in the NFL player props for SNF at 60.5 for Los Angeles and Travis Kelce 57.5 for KC. As for the running backs, the Chiefs’ Isiah Pacheco is set at 48.5 yards and the Chargers’ Gus Edwards is at 35.5.

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Chargers vs Chiefs Prop #1: Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns

In his career against the Chargers, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 26 TD’s, while throwing just seven interceptions. His TD pass line is set at 1.5, something that he’s gone over in six of his last seven outings against the Bolts.

Patrick Mahomes’ last five games have been ______. #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/ZRxU6uzkBc

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 7, 2024

In four of his last six games on the campaign, the Chiefs pivot has tossed for two or more touchdowns. Before shutting down Kirk Cousins and the Falcons in their previous tilt, the Chargers D had allowed Will Levis, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson to each find the end zone with their arm at least two times.

• Chargers vs Chiefs Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-105); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Chargers vs Chiefs Prop #2: Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards

This will be Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco’s second game back following an ankle injury. He was solid as they eased him in against Las Vegas, with seven carries for 44 yards. Dating back to last season, he’s gone over his listed line of 48.5 in ten of thirteen instances.

Isiah Pacheco is back and putting in work.

Full 32 Facts: https://t.co/es8EmrIwtC pic.twitter.com/08NUov7S6I

— Rotoworld by NBC Sports (@rotoworld) December 5, 2024

He’s going up against a Chargers run D that has recently leaked some oil, allowing 146 rush yards per game in the last three affairs, seventh worst in the NFL during that span. Running backs Chase Brown, Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson have gone off for 86, 140 and 102 yards respectively. If you’re also looking for a standard bet, make sure to check out Brady Trettenero’s Chargers vs Chiefs predictions.

• Chargers vs Chiefs Prop Pick: Isiah Pacheco over 48.5 rushing yards (-120); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Chargers vs Chiefs Touchdown Scorer Props

The Chiefs’ Isiah Pacheco has the shortest odds to find the end zone first at +550 and he garners the shortest odds to record a touchdown at anytime at +100.

Chargers vs Chiefs Prop #3: Will Dissly Anytime Touchdown

Scouring the board for some solid value leads me to Chargers tight end Will Dissly. He’s been targeted at least four times in six of eight games, and he’s against a Chiefs D that’s allowed the most yards per game to tight ends (78.5).

It takes a lot of fortitude to stick Will Dissly back in your lineup after a Zero last week but…

– Ladd McConkey is banged up & may not play
– Chiefs allow the 2nd-most fantasy points to TEs
– Dissly’s route% didn’t change last week

I’m sticking with him another week. pic.twitter.com/2Zwtz94xJT

— Drew Davenport (@DrewDavenportFF) December 4, 2024

He could potentially become even more of a focal point of the offense, if rookie wideout Ladd McConkey (knee/shoulder) isn’t able to suit up.

John Hyslop’s Chargers vs Chiefs same-game parlay also has Dissly having a big game against the Chiefs.

• Chargers vs Chiefs Prop Pick: Will Dissly anytime touchdown (+320); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

The post Best Chargers vs Chiefs Player Props to Bet for SNF in Week 14 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Just a game back of Kansas City for the #1 seed in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills (10-2, 4-2 away, ATS) bring a seven-game win streak into SoFi Stadium on Sunday afternoon as they visit the Los Angeles Rams (6-6, 3-3 home, ATS), who are only a game back of Seattle for the NFC West lead. The Bills vs Rams odds favor the visitors by 3.5 points as they close in on their sixth straight playoff berth. Kickoff is set for 1:25 pm PT/4:25 pm ET.

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams Predictions

• Bills moneyline (-180) at bet365
  

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While this is a tough cross-country road trip for the Bills, Buffalo is the demonstrably better team in basically every measurable metric. The Bills’ +131 point differential dwarfs the Rams -36 number. Buffalo currently sits third in the NFL in DVOA at +26.1 while the Rams are 16th at +0.1%.

The Bills are a bit more banged-up with WR Keon Coleman and TE Dalton Kincaid both questionable, but they’re also in great shape injury-wise this deep into the season. The return of middle linebacker Matt Milano, who had five tackles in last week’s 35-10 win over the 49ers, was a huge boon to a defense that’s looked susceptible at times this year.

Matthew Stafford is having a decent season for the Rams (248.6 YPG, 17 TD, 7 INT, 94.2 passer rating) but it’s nothing in comparison to what Josh Allen is doing on the Buffalo side. Allen is averaging 224.3 passing yards and 52.5 rushing yards per game and has found the end zone 20 times through the air and another eight times with his legs, while throwing just five picks. His passer rating of 100.3 is the second-highest of his career, and he’s on pace to finish with a double-digit improvement in his interception total compared to last season, when threw 18.

All of Allen’s exploits have made him the -243 favorite, on average, in the NFL MVP odds.

BUF vs LAR Player Props

The Bills vs Rams player props list both starting QBs with very similar passing numbers. Matthew Stafford has a slightly higher passing yards O/U (255.5) than counterpart Josh Allen (244.5). Both are slight favorites to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns.

Rams bellcow running back Kyren Williams leads the rushing props at 67.5 yards O/U, while Buffalo RB1 James Cook is close behind him at 61.5 O/U.

Best Bills vs Rams Odds

The Bills vs Rams point spread is 3.5 across the board but there are minor variations in the odds. Bills bettors can get Buffalo -3.5 at -105 odds at BetMGM while Rams bettors can get LA +3.5 at -105 at DraftKings.

The longest Rams moneyline is +160, which is available at multiple books, including ESPN Bet, FanDuel, and DraftKings. The best Buffalo moneyline is -180 at bet365. All other sportsbooks have the Bills at -190 or shorter.

There is only a half-point range in the game total in the latest NFL odds. The best option for over bettors at the moment is 49.5 (-110) at BetMGM. The best option for under bettors is 50.0 (-115) at Caesars.

The NFL public betting percentages strongly favor the Bills both against the spread and on the moneyline. The Bills are getting 94% of moneyline handle and 71% of ATS handle as of 1:15 pm ET.

The post Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams Predictions, Player Props & Odds (Week 14) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The first thing I thought when I woke up today was Caesars Sportsbook. If we’re being honest, I’m not playing there enough these days. In my defense, it’s not always easy to spread the love as there are so many great books out there. We’ve all seen them. Still, it’s no excuse and I’m making good with Caesar himself as we speak. The funny part is, they’ve got great lines for the Los Angeles Chargers/Kansas City Chiefs matchup tonight. We’re talking the kind of lines you can’t get anywhere else. I was able to build a Guaranteed Parlay at plus-money that I wasn’t able to do anywhere else. We’re living the dream right now. Feels good.

Chargers vs Chiefs Same-Game Parlay Picks

All three legs of this Chargers/Chiefs SGP come add up to +107 odds.

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Time to Buy Low on Will Dissly

Some bettors like to make “banned” lists. What that means is, if they bet on a guy and he has a bad night, then that player is banned. I’m not saying it’s right, I’m just saying I don’t do it because at some point, we’ll run out of guys to bet on.

One thing we do know is, the fantasy community did NOT give up on Will Dissly after one bad game.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em: Jameis Winston, Gus Edwards, Will Dissly (2024) https://t.co/CU0ThRC24R

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) December 7, 2024

Last week, I was all over Will “The Thrill” Dissly. The guy had a decent matchup in a game that I thought would see some passing volume. The passing volume did not materialize and our boy Will embarrassed himself, his friends, his family and the entire city of Los Angeles. It was bad. He didn’t even catch one pass.

Fast forward one week and I’m ready to give Will another shot. It takes a special man to do something like that but at the end of the day, it’s the right thing to do. Especially since the Kansas City Chiefs should score some points on the Chargers. We should be looking at a negative game script for Los Angeles.

When that happens, Will takes over. Why? Because the Kansas City Chiefs can’t stop the tight end position. On the season, no team has given up more receptions or receiving yards to the position. It’s become a thing. My guess is the Chargers force-feed Will and he goes for at least four receptions and 30 yards. Feels right.

Justin Herbert Can Sling It

Here’s the thing with Justin Herbert. Given the way the Los Angeles Chargers operate on offense, we really don’t know how good he is. It looks like Los Angeles wants to run the ball all the time so there are games where Herbert barely throws the ball. Last wee he only threw the rock 23 times.

One thing we know about Herbert is, he doesn’t throw picks.

Justin Herbert’s interception percentage of 0.29% is currently the best in NFL history.
Passing Aaron Rodgers in 2018 with an interception percentage of 0.33%. pic.twitter.com/cdQdcSqFdL

— ChargersMuse (@ChargersMuse) December 7, 2024

Our guy Justin is going to keep the Chargers in this game tonight. He doesn’t make a ton of mistakes and as we already know, he has Will Dissly working with him. When push comes to shove, Justin is going to get his.

I think push is going to come to shove tonight because the Chiefs are very good against the run. In fact, no team in the entire NFL has allowed fewer rushing yards to the running back position. That’s pretty good. So when the Chargers run into a brick wall, they’ll be forced to adjust and start throwing the ball.

We already know the tight ends eat versus the Chiefs but wide receivers can too. Kansas City is not the worst at allowing receptions to wideouts but they are far from the best. I’m thinking we throw Herbert’s 200+ passing yards into this parlay as well. It’s correlated so we get dinged on price but whatever. It’s fine.

• The SGP (+107): Justin Herbert 200+ Passing Yards (-320) + Will Dissly 4+ Receptions (-185) + Will Dissly 30+ Receiving Yards (-185)
• Wager: 1 Unit to win 1.07 Units
• 2024 SBD SNF SGP Results – 6-6 (+9.15 Units)

The post Chargers vs Chiefs Same-Game Parlay for Sunday Night Football (Week 14) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

With six teams on bye, there are fewer games left on the NFL Week 14 schedule to pick through in order to find legs for NFL parlays. But I have spent a lot of time this week diving deep into the 12 games remaining across Sunday and Monday to find the best NFL parlay picks for Week 14. What I have come up with is two NFL parlays: (1) a longshot parlay with 73-1 odds, and (2) a higher-probability parlay with +124 odds.

I hit three of the five legs in my longshot parlay last week, which would have made a decent profit betting them as singles, but the parlay itself did lose, unfortunately. I was also finally letdown by Cooper Kupp in my higher-probability parlay, as he was the one leg that failed to cash. But I feel confident these two Week 14 parlays are putting money in our pockets.

Longshot NFL Parlay for Week 14

My Week 14 longshot NFL parlay has five legs and is best played at FanDuel for +7349 odds. Both of DraftKings and ESPN Bet were close with their odds, but bet365 was missing Jonnu Smith props, Caesars wouldn’t let me bet any alternate lines with Aidan O’Connell, and BetMGM doesn’t have the proper milestones. A $5 bet on this parlay would potentially win $367.49 and return $372.49.

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The first leg of my longshot NFL parlay is Aidan O’Connell for 250+ passing yards. The last time I bet on O’Connell, he left the game with an injury after 14 snaps. So, here’s to hoping he at least plays this whole game. If he does, I like him to surpass 250 yards through the air. O’Connell is fresh off a 340-yard performance against a tough Chiefs defense, and now sees a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards in the NFL. I also like Tampa Bay’s offense to score some points and put Las Vegas in a negative game script early in this one.

Next up is Jonnu Smith for 70+ receiving yards. The Dolphins tight end has been posting big numbers over the last three weeks, and appears to be one of the centerpieces of their offense now. Smith has led the team in targets in each of the last two games (11 in each), and was tied for the team-high the week prior. In those last three games, he has recorded 113, 87, and 101 receiving yards, respectively. I appreciate that the Jets have allowed the second-fewest passing yards in the NFL, but they’re playing Week 14 without their star corner Sauce Gardner. The result will be having to give their corners some help with the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, leaving the middle of the field for Jonnu to go to work.

The third leg of this parlay is the Bears moneyline. I went into detail on why I liked Chicago to win this game in my Week 14 NFL picks.

The next leg is from the same game as above, as I’m going with Jauan Jennings for 70+ receiving yards. I’m actually happy that Jennings has had two off games, especially when you consider the circumstances, because it has resulted in great odds for this bet. Those circumstances were catching passes from Brandon Allen one game, and the other was a game where Brock Purdy only attempted 18 passes because he couldn’t handle the ball in the snow. It won’t be snowing in San Francisco Sunday afternoon, and Jennings will return to his usual form when Brandon Aiyuk is out of the lineup – Purdy’s favorite target. Jennings saw 11 targets in both games following Aiyuk’s injury, and turned them into 93 and 91-yard performances, respectively. With no CMC to lean on, and a Bears secondary that’s 22nd in net yards allowed per pass attempt, I like Jennings to have another good game in Week 14.

The final leg of this parlay is a James Cook anytime touchdown. You can read my analysis on Cook in my Week 14 NFL TD picks.

Higher-Probability Week 14 NFL Parlay

My Week 14 higher-probability NFL parlay contains three legs and comes in at +124 odds at FanDuel as well. Be sure to check back with bet365, though, as they had better odds on two of the legs and were just missing Brock Bowers props at the time of writing this.

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The first leg of this parlay is Will Levis for 175+ passing yards. If you tailed my parlays last week, you know Levis let me down. But as I have said before, I am a man who believes in second chances, and I am willing to extend one to the Titans young QB. It helps that he has reached this milestone in each of his last four games since returning from injury, and sees a Jaguars defense that allows the most passing yards in the NFL, as well as the most net yards per pass attempt, in Week 14.

Next is an alternate spread with the Eagles -6.5. If you wanted a slightly better payout on this parlay, I would say this is the leg you can play with. I don’t think there’s a team playing better football right now than the Eagles. They have won eight straight games and have some very impressive wins in this streak. I think the most impressive was last week’s win in Baltimore, when they ran for 166 yards against the league’s best run defense. The Panthers are a bad football team, and I don’t put too much stock into their back-to-back three-point losses to the Chiefs and Buccaneers.

The final leg of this NFL parlay is Brock Bowers for 50+ receiving yards. The rookie tight end has cleared this milestone in eight of his 12 games, but has achieved the feat in all three of Aidan O’Connell’s starts. In those three games, Bowers has recorded 71, 93, and 140 yards, respectively. He also has double-digit targets in each of those games, and saw 14 in two of them. As I mentioned above, I like the Raiders to face a negative game script against the Bucs in Week 14. But even if they don’t, Bowers is the focal point of this offense.

The post Free Week 14 NFL Parlay Picks: Get 73-1 Odds with This 5-Leg Parlay appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) visit the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) on Sunday Night Football in a Week 14 AFC West clash between two playoff contenders.

The Chiefs are still being the Chiefs, with their only loss this season occurring when they faced the Buffalo Bills on the road. KC is coming off a narrow 19-17 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, their second straight close call against inferior competition.

Meanwhile, the Chargers have won five of six, but needed their defense to score their only touchdown in an ugly 17-13 win at Atlanta last week.

Here’s our Chargers vs Chiefs prediction and the latest odds for Sunday Night Football.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

The Chargers vs Chiefs odds show Kansas City as 4-point home favorites, translating to a 66% implied probability. The Chiefs need to win by at least 5 points to cover the spread.

This line opened with the Chiefs as 4.5-point favorites before ticking down to 4 at most sportsbooks. The total opened at 43.5 points and has steadily fallen to 42.5, perhaps due to injuries impacting the Chargers offense and inclement weather in the forecast.

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Odds as of December 7, 2024 at ESPN Sportsbook. Browse the latest NFL betting odds here.

Chargers Betting Outlook

Injuries have hindered the Chargers’ 2024 season, but Jim Harbaugh’s squad has remained competitive in the AFC playoff race. Despite ranking 24th in total offense, Los Angeles still boasts the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense, allowing just 15.7 PPG.

Star running back JK Dobbins was placed on IR with an MCL sprain, a major blow to an already limited offense. Backup Gus Edwards managed just 32 yards on 11 carries in Atlanta.

JK Dobbins to IR is unfortunate, as he was the best of the low-cost risk vs reward signings GM Joe Hortiz made on offense.

Those acquisitions have been a mixed bag of good, average, and unplayable. pic.twitter.com/FdX9UhPW2X

— Tyler Schoon (@tylerjschoon) November 30, 2024

Rookie receiver Ladd McConkey, who leads the team with 815 yards, is also questionable with nagging knee and shoulder injuries after posting nine catches for 117 yards vs the Falcons.

Quarterback Justin Herbert has managed the Chargers to wins despite the depleted supporting cast. The former #1 overall pick has been efficient, completing 63.4% of his passes for 2,551 yards with 13 TDs and just 1 INT. He’ll need to avoid mistakes against an opportunistic Chiefs defense.

Chiefs Betting Outlook

The Chiefs have been the NFL’s hottest team for most of 2024, starting 11-1, with their only loss coming in Buffalo. Superstar QB Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been his usual dominant self lately, tossing 5 INTs over his last three games, but he still has KC poised for another #1 seed.

Kansas City’s defense has been the story, ranking 8th in points allowed (19.6 PPG) and 3rd against the run (87.8 YPG). They contained a hobbled Raiders offense last week, but did allow 434 total yards. The secondary has been shaky at times, yielding 224 passing YPG (23rd).

The Raiders fumble it, the Chiefs recover it to seal the game #LVvsKC on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/WvNvUONRM5

— NFL (@NFL) November 29, 2024

Offensively, the Chiefs remain potent, averaging 24.1 PPG (11th) despite some uncharacteristic Mahomes INTs. Rookie RB Isaiah Pacheco returned from injury last week to provide a spark (7 carries, 44 yards) alongside veteran Kareem Hunt. TE Travis Kelce (75 rec, 637 yds) remains Mahomes’ top target, with WRs Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice on IR.

Kansas City signed K Matthew Wright off the practice squad with Harrison Butker and Spencer Shrader both injured. In his KC debut, Wright went 4/5 on FGs in the win over Las Vegas.

Chargers vs Chiefs Prediction

While the Chargers have exceeded expectations at 8-4, I’m very hesitant to bet on them with major injury concerns. Assuming their two top options are limited this week, LA simply does not have much else to work with.

Furthermore, Andy Reid’s Chiefs have owned this rivalry of late, winning six straight over their AFC West foes. In the earlier meeting this season, Kansas City went into LA as 6.5-point road favorites and emerged with a 17-10 victory. Now they’re only laying 4 points at home in Arrowhead with extra time to prepare? Sign me up.

Coach Matt Patricia is "never gonna question" the Chiefs as long as they have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. pic.twitter.com/nUG6KK3rlY

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) December 5, 2024

The Chargers deserve credit for hiding their deficiencies on offense behind a stout defense and mistake-free play from Herbert. But eventually, the attrition catches up to you, especially against elite opposition like the Chiefs. I don’t see Gus Edwards and the ailing pass catchers doing enough to keep pace with Mahomes and co.

While I lean Under due to the weather and LA’s offensive woes, the Chiefs are my strongest play laying less than a TD. Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in their last six, but oddsmakers have asked them to cover some massive numbers.

This short spread is a gift. I’ll lay the points confidently with Reid having extra time to prepare against an underequipped division rival. Let’s back the Chiefs to smother Herbert and win comfortably in a low-scoring battle of attrition.

SNF Pick & Prediction:

• Chiefs -4 (-110)
• UNDER 42.5 (-110)

The post Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Pick & Odds for Sunday Night Football appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Week 14 has already treated us to one of the best games of the year, but it still has 12 more to come across Sunday and Monday. If you’re looking for some help in betting the rest of Week 14, or just want your biases/leans confirmed, I have gathered my NFL picks as well as my SBD formula’s computer picks for each of the remaining games.

I went 1-0 on my upset picks from last week, winning 1.43 units. My SBD formula went 3-1 on its picks, winning 2.93 units. (The extra pick was the result of the Seahawks turning into underdogs. I tweeted it out Sunday AM.) Here’s how we, or at least I, plan to keep the money coming in for Week 14!

Week 14 NFL Picks

I have two upset picks for Week 14, but my formula is predicting zero upsets this week. It does, however, have a couple very close margins of victory. Before I go any further, though, I want to urge the importance of line shopping before you lock in any of the picks above. The moneyline odds I have included were the best at the time of writing this. You can find the best odds available at any time using our NFL odds page.

Though my SBD formula has all favorites winning in Week 14, here are some games where it’s predicting a close game (and you could potentially take a swing):

1. Titans to beat the Jaguars by 3.1 points
2. Dolphins to beat the Jets by 1.6 points
3. Cardinals to beat the Seahawks by 1.2 points
4. 49ers to beat the Bears by 1.7 points
5. Chiefs to beat the Chargers by 0.3 points

You’ll notice two of the above are upsets I am betting, which makes me feel even better about the pick!

If you wanted more than moneyline picks, SBD has Week 14 covered from many angles. You can check out Zach Reger’s Week 14 NFL picks against the spread, and the Week 14 NFL props John Hyslop likes the best. But you can also keep reading here if you’d like my analysis on each of my three picks above.

Browns Over Steelers

This is the only one of my three NFL picks this week where I don’t feel the team I am betting has a better than 50% chance to win the game. However, I think they have a much better chance to win this game than the moneyline odds suggest. The +260 odds FanDuel is offering on the Browns to win implies a 27.8% probability. I think Cleveland’s probability of winning this game is around 45%.

There are three main reasons I think this game is close to a coin-flip:

1. The Browns just beat the Steelers two weeks ago
2. Cleveland’s offense is a capable unit without Deshaun Watson under center
3. Pittsburgh lacks the ability to pull away from teams who aren’t horrible

Furthering the first point above, Cleveland just picked up a win when hosting Pittsburgh in Week 12. The Browns won 24-19 while committing three turnovers.

On the second point, the Jameis Winston experience has had its ups and downs, as is to be expected with Winston, but even the downs have been better than what we saw Deshaun Watson do with this offense. Cleveland has now scored 24+ points in three of the five games Winston has started, which is a milestone they never achieved in their first seven games with Watson – their game-high for points was 18. What’s even more impressive about that stat is the defenses he has done it against. He scored 29 points against the Ravens (sort of impressive), 24 against the Steelers, and 32 against the Broncos.

On the final point, Pittsburgh has yet to show me they can put a decent team away. They just win close games. We saw them beat up on the Raiders and Jets, two of the worst teams in the league, who both suffer from awful QB play, while six of their other seven wins have been by one score, two of them being by less than three points. I think we’ll see Pittsburgh struggle to put the Browns away, as long as Jameis doesn’t throw too many pick-sixes, giving Winston an opportunity to win this game late.

The uncertainty around George Pickens’ status (at the time of writing this article anyways) could also be a major factor. Pickens is the Steelers’ best offensive weapon, and I don’t think they would be able to move the ball as well without him.

• Pick: Browns moneyline (+260 at FanDuel)

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Bears Over 49ers

I truly thought this game would be a pick’em after what we have seen from the 49ers over the past three weeks. I appreciate that Brock Purdy did not play in their 28-point loss to the Packers, but he did play in their home loss to the Seahawks as well as the 25-point loss to the Bills.

One player the 49ers will be without is Christian McCaffrey, whose season is now over after injuring his knee in the snow last week. The 49ers offense, which has largely relied upon a good running game, will now have to turn to rookie Isaac Guerendo, as Jordan Mason will also not be available. Guerendo has great size and speed, but we aren’t really sure how comfortable he is in Kyle Shanahan’s offense yet – at least not on an every-down basis. So, this offense might still be out of sorts as their rookie running back gets comfortable.

It’s also sounding like both Trent Williams and Nick Bosa are doubtful, which are big blows to both sides of the ball for San Francisco.

On the other side of this game, we have a Bears team that has now lost six games in a row, but have at least shown a lot of fight over the last three weeks since their offensive coordinator was fired. Their past three games have all been against divisional opponents, which you could argue make up three of the top four teams in the NFC right now, and each loss was by three points or less.

Now they head into Week 14 with their head coach just having been fired after their inexcusable clock mismanagement that cost them a chance to send their Thanksgiving game with the Lions to overtime. I think we’re going to see more effort out of this Bears team than we have since their demoralizing last-second loss to the Commanders in Week 8.

Chicago’s offense will still be a bit of a rollercoaster as Caleb Williams continues to learn how to play QB in the pros, not to mention their offensive line needs some work, but their defense has a lot of talent and I think will return to being a feared unit. I like them to give Brock Purdy hell all afternoon.

• Pick: Bears moneyline (+170 at ESPN Bet)

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Chargers Over Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs played arguably two of the four worst teams in the league over the past two weeks, and failed to beat either of them by more than three points. They should have lost their Black Friday game with the Raiders, but got incredibly lucky that the Raiders suffered some sort of miscommunication that led to an unexpected snap that bounced off their QB’s shoulders for a fumble.

Prior to those two games, the Chiefs lost to the Bills by nine points, beat the Broncos by two points thanks to a blocked field goal as time expired, and needed overtime to beat the Buccaneers. It’s not irrational to say the Chiefs are only a few really lucky breaks away from being 7-5. If you want to go back further, you could say they were also on the verge of losing Weeks 1 and 2 to the Ravens and Bengals, respectively.

This has been, in my opinion, the least impressive Chiefs team we have seen with Patrick Mahomes under center. However, they continue to just get wins. They have just simply gotten it done. But I’m not sure they can in Week 14 against the Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh’s squad has given up the fewest points in the NFL, and they are constantly winning the turnover battle. The Chargers have only turned the ball over six times, which is fewest in the league, and they have forced 17 turnovers. In what I suspect will be a pretty slow-paced, defensive battle, I give the nod to LA’s defense over Kansas City’s.

After a bit of a quiet game last week from Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense last week, in what was their first game without JK Dobbins, I think they’ll have a better answer Sunday night.

• Pick: Chargers moneyline (+180 at DraftKings)

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The post NFL Picks for Week 14: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The Seattle Seahawks travel to meet the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14 of the NFL season. The winner of this crucial NFC West showdown will sit atop the division standings with just four weeks to go. These teams just met in a rainy Week 12 slugfest, with the Seahawks coming out on top 16-6.

This Seahawks vs Cardinals matchup gets underway on Sunday, December 8 at 4:05 pm ET from State Farm Stadium. Catch all the action over on Fox. Until then, find all the Seahawks vs Cardinals odds and our best bets, below.

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals Odds

The latest NFL odds have the Cardinals as 2.5-point favorites on the spread, with the Seahawks as +120 moneyline underdogs. The Seahawks vs Cardinals total is set at 44.5.

Odds as of December 7 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Discover the best NFL betting apps for Seahawks vs Cardinals. 

Seattle Seahawks Betting News & Notes

The Seahawks come into this game riding a wave of momentum after winning three straight contests. Quarterback Geno Smith is fourth in passing yards with 3241 and continues to make tough plays under pressure. Encouragingly, sophomore sensation Jaxon Smith-Njigba has stepped up with star DK Metcalf ailing. The former Ohio State Buckeye has put on a show with 27 receptions for 441 yards and three touchdowns in his past four games.

Seattle’s defense has been the hero of their recent run of play. Over the past five weeks, Mike Macdonald’s stop-unit ranks 10th in EPA per play allowed and ninth in dropback EPA. A huge part of that production is the recent run of play of defensive tackle Leonard Williams. Williams has been a quarterback’s worst nightmare this season. The former Jets first-round draft pick has racked up 4.5 sacks and a memorable pick-six over the past two weeks.

LEONARD WILLIAMS 91-YARD PICK-6

: #SEAvsNYJ on FOX
: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/8CECV6s1AL

— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2024

Keep in mind, the Seahawks have won six straight games against the Cardinals, going 5-1 ATS. They’ve also won nine of the last 10 Seahawks vs Cardinals matchups in Arizona, with the Cardinals’ last win at home being way back in 2020.

Arizona Cardinals Betting News & Notes

Arizona threw away the game last week against Minnesota. After leading 19-6 late in the third quarter, they allowed the Vikings to storm back. Jonathan Gannon turned to conservative play-calling, Kyler Murray threw two interceptions, and Sam Darnold threw a last-minute touchdown to give Minnesota the win.

While their offense is a work in progress, the Cardinals defense is beginning to round into form. Arizona sits fourth in both EPA per play and dropback EPA since Week 8. Their front seven is beginning to get after quarterbacks, as evidenced by their nearly five sacks per game across the past four weeks.

The Cardinals are allowing opponents to convert third-downs on just 34% of opportunities in that time frame and rank seventh in the NFL in redzone scoring percentage this season.

Since Week 7 the Arizona Cardinals Defense is:

2nd in PPG
2nd in yds per play
1st in YPG
1st in sacks

ELITE pic.twitter.com/tfcDZZIGOZ

— K1SinceDay1 (@KSzn2021) December 5, 2024

Be mindful of the fact the Cardinals have been brutal in NFC West contests of late, winning just three of their past 18 divisional games.

Seahawks vs Cardinals Prediction

These teams are on vastly different trajectories since they last met. Arizona has lost two straight, while the Seahawks have won three in a row. Take the points with the better football team.

Pick: Seahawks +2.5 

The post Seahawks vs Cardinals Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 14) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The NFL player props for Week 14 are slowly being released which means it’s time to pounce. My favorite part about betting these on Fridays is, I’ll forget about them by Sunday. Then I’ll see them under my “open” wagers tab and it’ll feel like Christmas. There’s nothing like a banger that has been forgotten about. What’s even better is, the number and price we get on Friday is almost always so much better than what’s available on Sunday. On the streets, that’s called “closing line value” and it’s gold.

This Sunday we’re going to attack two matchup,s and they’re both on the early slate. The first one is the Atlanta Falcons/Minnesota Vikings game. Then at the same time, we’ll be sweating out the Las Vegas Raiders/Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup. My guess is, both of these moves cash before halftime, giving us plenty of time to get our profits down on the late slate. That’s the plan, at least.

This could easily be the greatest Sunday of our entire lives.

Week 14 NFL Player Props and Odds

Odds as of December 6 at FanDuel & DraftKings. Check out the best NFL betting apps for player prop wagering. 

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Ray-Ray McCloud Will Get His

There are a lot of mouths to feed in Atlanta which makes it hard to bet any of their receiving options. That’s just the fact of the matter. We’re talking Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson, for christ’s sake. These guys are nasty.

The thing is, all that depth makes it easy for an absolute beast like Ray-Ray McCloud to fly under the radar.

Ray Ray McCloud dances down the sideline for 60 yards!

: #LACvsATL on CBS/Paramount+
: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/LAPgHaDMtY

— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2024

I know what the haters are going to say, “Slop, Ray-Ray is like the fifth receiving option on a team that doesn’t throw much.” Just like always, the haters are only part right, and their lack of vision is what’s making them look bad here. Typical haters.

For starters, the Falcons should get forced into throwing the ball on Sunday. They’re in Minnesota taking on a team in the Vikings that stops the run better than almost anyone. We’re talking third-best in the NFL here, people. That fact alone makes them a pass funnel, which is a big reason they’ve allowed the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. Translation, Atlanta should be forced to throw the rock more than they want to on Sunday.

On top of all that, McCloud has seen the third most targets on the team this season. When Captain Kirk drops back to throw, he’ll look for McCloud. I wish his ADOT was a little higher than 6.9, but he’s 25th best in yards after the catch. He doesn’t just catch the ball and go down. Ray-Ray will fight for us.

For that reason, I think it’s safe for us to go with 40+ receiving yards for +165 at FanDuel. Feels right.

• The Pick: Ray-Ray McCloud 40+ Receiving Yards (+165) – FanDuel

AOC Might Not Be That Bad

When we hear the letters “AOC”, we don’t think of football. Hell, we don’t even think of a dude. All that is behind us now because after last week, every time I hear the letters “AOC”, I think of Aidan O’Connell.

And after watching him over the last few games, I’m ready to say he might not be that bad.

Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell is back at it after one of his best career games in a loss to the Chiefs.

Solid zip on these passes from AOC.

: By @Sean_Zittel, Vegas Sports Today#RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/2eaqx9Zoz4

— Vegas Sports Today (@VegasSportsTD) December 4, 2024

Here’s the thing: we targeted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ pass defense last week with Bryce Young, and it worked out. The guy threw for almost 300 yards. If Bryce can do that, then anything is possible. We’ve all seen Bryce Young play football before.

This week, the Buccaneers will welcome the Las Vegas Raiders to town, which is perfect for us. We’ve got another “who the hell is that guy” playing quarterback against the Buccaneers, which means we’ve got a favorable line. We have to think about the over here. We owe it to ourselves and our families.

The thing with this “who the hell is that guy” is we know who he is. It’s Aidan O’Connell. We just watched him go for 340 yards on Black Friday. Sure, he blew the game at the end, but that just means he’ll be extra focused this week. I think 250+ yards at +158 is a steal.

For those who think I’m being a little soft with this move, feel free to go all the way up to 275+ at +320. Or even 300+ at +520. It’s all deadly.

• The Pick: Aidan O’Connell 250+ Passing Yards (+158) – FanDuel
• 2024 SBD Friday Release Results – 10-14 (+0.98 Units)

The post NFL Player Props Week 14 – Sunday’s Best NFL Prop Bets (Dec. 8) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

There are just five weeks left in the regular season. NFL Week 14 is also the last week of the season with byes then every team will be in action from here on out. After a couple of weeks of struggling against the spread, underdogs bounced back a little bit last week and went 9-7 ATS overall. In my best bets for Week 14, there are two underdogs and one favorite that I am targeting to cover the spread.

See below for all my NFL ATS picks for Week 14.

NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread

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Odds as of Friday, December 6 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Make sure you claim the best DraftKings promo code before locking in your NFL Week 14 bets.

Week 14 ATS Pick #1: Browns +6.5 vs Steelers

If you have been keeping up with this article every week, you know how much I love underdogs in AFC North matchups. Three weeks ago, I bet on the Steelers vs. the Ravens and won, and two weeks ago, I bet on the Browns on Thursday Night Football vs. the Steelers. Last week, Steelers +3 was one of my best bets against the Bengals, and they won outright. I also bet on the Browns vs the Ravens earlier in the year to cover as big favorites. Since 2018, underdogs in AFC North matchups are 50-31 (61.73%) against the spread, so if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Underdogs in AFC North matchups are now 50-31 (61.73%) against the spread since 2018

Steelers +3 pic.twitter.com/L1sZIKWJVU

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) December 1, 2024

Now the Browns have not won in Pittsburgh since 2003, but we do not need them to win, we just need them to keep this game close. Kevin Stefanski has also been good on short rest. Cleveland lost and failed to cover the spread last week in miserable fashion on Monday Night Football, but they still played well and had a real shot of winning that game. Under Stefanski, the Browns are 9-2 straight up and 8-3 against the spread when playing on short rest.

These two teams know each other very well, so I am going to bet on the Browns to keep this game closer than the spread suggests. If  Jameis Winston can limit the pick sixes and Cleveland’s defense can make a few plays, this will be yet another close AFC North battle. I will take the Browns plus the points on Sunday.

• Pick: Browns +6.5 (-110)

Week 14 ATS Pick #2: Dolphins -5.5 vs Jets

The Jets have been atrocious down the stretch. After beating the Texans on Halloween, they have lost (and failed to cover) in three straight games. New York is just 3-9 against the spread this season and 1-8 ATS over their last nine games.

Since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury, the Dolphins have looked good. They are 4-2 against the spread in those six games, and the offense has averaged 27 points per game. I am not taking their Thanksgiving game into much consideration as it is well-known that the Dolphins do not play well in the cold. For this game, they are back in sunny Miami to play a division opponent that they know well. Miami has dominated this series of late winning seven of the last eight matchups.

We have also seen the Dolphins beat up on bad teams. In his career, Tua is 22-8 straight up and 19-11 against the spread when playing teams below .500. He is also 14-7 ATS against these teams at home. The once-great Jets defense has given up at least 26 points to offenses not as good as Miami’s. I will take the Dolphins to cover the spread at home on extended rest.

• Pick: Dolphins -5.5 (-112)

Week 14 ATS Pick #3: Rams +3.5 vs Bills

I am taking a deep breath and trusting the situation for this bet. The Bills have won seven in a row and just beat the Chiefs and 49ers in their last two games. They are playing great football right now and are admittingly terrifying to bet against, but the Rams offer some value in this spot.

The NFL odds have the Rams as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Bills on Sunday. Buffalo will be a popular bet on Sunday, and the NFL betting splits show 80% of the betting handle is on the Bills to cover the spread at the time of publishing.

NFL teams receiving the most bets at @DKSportsbook

1. Bills -3.5
2. Chargers +4
3. Bears +3.5
4. Dolphins -5.5
5. Eagles -13 pic.twitter.com/rq0NjZPLX4

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) December 6, 2024

As mentioned earlier, the Bills just played the Chiefs and 49ers to clinch their division. Next week, Buffalo plays the Lions in what could potentially be the game of the year. This is a combination of a letdown and a look-ahead spot for the Bills. The Rams on the other hand are 6-6 and battling for a playoff spot in a tight NFC West race. I like getting over a field goal at home with a talented Rams team that has something to play for.

• Pick: Rams +3.5 (-112)

The post NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 14 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A heavyweight NFC North battle starts Week 14 in the NFL as the Green Bay Packers (9-3, 4-1 away, 6-6 ATS) visit the NFC-leading Detroit Lions (11-1, 5-1 home, 9-3 ATS) on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET. After opening as 4.5-point home favorites, Detroit is now as low as 3.0-point chalk on TNF.

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Predictions

• Lions moneyline (-170) at ESPN Bet
  

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The Packers vs Lions odds have been steadily moving in Green Bay’s direction all week. Detroit was a -225 moneyline favorite when the Week 14 NFL odds opened on Sunday night, and that number has come down as far -170 at ESPN Bet. That’s the difference between a 69.23% implied win probability and a 62.96% implied win probability, which is a massive shift for a Week 14 NFL game.

In my opinion, the line has moved too far towards the Packers. The movement isn’t without some justification. As Ian Jones pointed out in his Packers vs Lions same-game parlay, the Detroit defense is severely depleted. A handful of players, including Aidan Hutchinson, the erstwhile favorite in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds, were already on IR before last week, and now DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike are all out in Week 14.

But this type of adversity is nothing new for the Lions, especially on defense. Detroit has been playing at far less than 100% for the last two months, and the results have still be borderline immaculate. The Lions have only allowed more than 20 points once in the last six game (26-23 win over Houston) and have averaged just 13.8 PPG in that span. That includes a 24-14 win over Green Bay at Lambeau in Week 9, a game the Lions led 24-6 entering the fourth quarter.

Yes, the Packers wound up drastically out-gaining Detroit in that Week 9 tilt (411 to 261) but a lot of that was garbage-time yardage. Detroit was full-value for the lopsided victory, largely because of their defense, which had a second-quarter pick-six courtesy of Kerby Joseph.

KERBY JOSEPH PICK-6! His 6th INT of the season

: #DETvsGB on FOX
: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/sJrkdGgLqA

— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024

It’s certainly harder to defend the fast track at Ford Field than it is the tundra at Lambeau, but even at home, Detroit is only surrendering 18.2 PPG, which would be the fourth-best scoring defense in the league as a whole.

And the Detroit offense isn’t nearly as banged up. The loss of left tackle Taylor Decker (knee) certainly hurts but he also missed the Thanksgiving game against the Bears, so this isn’t novel territory for Detroit. The Lions surrendered just one sack without Decker, and Chicago’s pass rush grades out significantly better than Green Bay’s (13th vs 23rd at PFF).

Eric Rosales expects at least one major from Detroit RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs, including a Gibbs anytime touchdown (-150) among his favorite Packers vs Lions player props tonight.

Best Packers vs Lions Odds for TNF

With so much line movement over the course of the week, there is still a pretty decent range in the Packers vs Lions odds roughly four hours before kickoff. The spread is still as high as 3.5 and as low as 3.0. Green Bay ATS bettors can find their best option – Green Bay +3.5 (-115) – at BetMGM right now. Lions backers should head to DraftKings to get Detroit -3.0 at -118 odds.

On the moneyline, ESPN Bet has the best price on a Lions straight-up victory at -170, while bet365 has the longest Green Bay moneyline at +155.

One area where sportsbooks are basically in complete agreement is the game total. Every book has the over/under at 51.5 and all but DraftKings has the odds at -110 both ways. DK represents the best option for the under, shifting the line slightly to U 51.5 (-108).

The post Packers vs Lions Predictions & Best Odds for Thursday Night Football (Dec. 5) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Sportsbooks have released NFL touchdown odds for all 13 games of Week 14 in the 2024-25 NFL season. Every sportsbook will tell you NFL TD props are by far the most popular among their bettors, but sustaining profitability in this betting market takes a lot of time and effort towards research – plus, some luck. I have taken the time to go through all of the NFL touchdown odds for Week 14, along with the pertinent player and team stats, to come up with my favorite NFL TD picks for Week 14.

Last week’s TD picks were ugly, as I went 4-8 to lose 1.32 units. The losses were frustrating, as I watched Jahmyr Gibbs fumble near the goal line, Jonnu Smith have a pass go through his hands near the goal line and into Tyreek Hill’s for a touchdown, and DeAndre Hopkins see a few targets in the endzone, but unable to come down with any of them. If any of those three go the other way, it would have been a winning week.

But that’s in the past now and my focus is on making some money in Week 14 with these nine NFL TD props.

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 14

I am betting nine players to score a touchdown in Week 14. Each of the above are a half-unit bet, except for David Montgomery, James Cook, and Bucky Irving, who are each full-unit bets.

Though you are only seeing NFL anytime TD scorer picks in this article, SBD does offer a lot more player prop coverage. You can find all the passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders for each player in Week 14 on our NFL props page.

I have provided some brief analysis below on why I like each of the nine players listed above to score a TD in Week 14.

David Montgomery

Week 13 marked the first time this season that neither David Montgomery nor Jahmyr Gibbs found the endzone. I don’t think we see that happen again the rest of the season.

Montgomery has scored a touchdown in nine of 12 games this season, and 20 of his 26 games as a Detroit Lion. That’s a touchdown in 77% of his games with the Lions. He has also been held out of the endzone in back-to-back games just once over the past two seasons. So, I like him to respond well after not scoring a touchdown last week.

He will also be looking to make up for not scoring a TD in the first game between the Lions and Packers (his opponent in Week 14), which came back in early November. Montgomery did, however, out-touch and out-gain his backfield mate both on the ground and through the air in that contest.

In a crucial game for NFC North standings, I like the Lions to lean on their strengths, which is their running game. We have also seen that when it’s time for Detroit to close out a game, Montgomery is the RB they lean on. I suspect that’s what we’ll be seeing on Thursday.

• Pick: David Montgomery Anytime TD (-145 at FanDuel)

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Bucky Irving

One of the most electric players in the NFL over the last few weeks has been Bucky Irving. The rookie RB has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, as well as five of the last seven. But last week was a massive step forward for Irving, as he was given 25 of the 36 running back rushing attempts. He touched the ball 28 times and recorded 185 yards from scrimmage. Both of these were season-highs. His previous high for touches came in Week 12, when he saw 18 touches, which he turned into 152 yards from scrimmage – his previous high in that category as well.

The Buccaneers are clearly starting to favor Irving over Rachaad White in their backfield, and it sounds like 28 touches may not be the ceiling for Irving. After last week’s big performance, Head Coach Todd Bowles said, “the more comfortable he gets, the more you can give him, the more he can do.”

Irving’s next opportunity will come against the Raiders, who have allowed the fifth-most points in the NFL. Las Vegas has been decent against the run, only allowing 4.3 yards per carry, but they have also given up 11 touchdowns on the ground. I like them to give up at least one more this Sunday!

• Pick: Bucky Irving Anytime TD (+100 at bet365)

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Kenneth Gainwell

This is by far the biggest longshot anytime TD bet I have placed this season. I might be getting a little too cute with this one, but I don’t see any value in betting either Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts at their very short odds to score a TD against the lowly Panthers.

This is basically a bet that the Eagles will be up big in this game. They’re favored by 12 points at the time of writing this, and I suspect that spread will continue to grow to 14+ before kickoff.

Carolina allows the most points in the NFL and the second-most yards. They rank 27th in yards allowed per rushing attempt and have surrendered 18 touchdowns on the ground this season. Barring injury, Saquon Barkley is going to score a touchdown in this game. There’s a good chance Hurts get in on the action as well, but that’s a little more dependent on the Panthers defense being able to drag Barkley down near the goal line.

After all the starters have had their fun, and the Eagles have a three-score (or more) lead, I think Philadelphia will do the smart thing and preserve Barkley. The next man up in their backfield is Kenneth Gainwell. We saw the 25-year-old get five carries in Philadelphia’s blowout of the Rams, and he took one of them for a score, which is his only TD this season.

I like Gainwell to see a good amount of work in the second half of this game, and think the Eagles will continue to steamroll the Panthers even with their backups in the game.

• Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD (+850 at DraftKings)

Bijan Robinson

Let me start this pick off by clarifying that I am well aware how good the Vikings have been against the run this season. Minnesota only allows 3.7 yards per rushing attempt (3rd) and have only given up five touchdowns on the ground. The reason I am betting Bijan Robinson to score a touchdown in Week 14 is because he is used in a variety of ways, not just as an old school RB who takes handoffs up the middle.

Only three running backs have seen more targets than Robinson this season, and only two have caught more passes. The second-year pro has seen at least six targets in three of his last five games, and he has caught all but one pass in that timeframe.

Following a horrendous four-interception outing from Kirk Cousins last week, where he was trying to push the ball downfield while under pressure, I expect the Falcons to try and make things easier on their aging QB against an arguably better defense in Week 14. With the pressure the Vikings defense is going to bring, I think we’ll see plenty of opportunities for Robinson in the pass game, and I like the explosive back to make good with the ball in his hands.

Robinson has scored a touchdown in five of his last seven games, and I like him to add another TD in Week 14.

• Pick: Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-105 at bet365)

De’Von Achane

While I was very tempted to come back to Jonnu Smith for a second straight week, I couldn’t say no to the -138 odds for De’Von Achane to score a TD against the Jets in Week 14.

With Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup, Achane has been a touchdown monster. Achane has scored at least one touchdown in seven of eight games with Tagovailoa in the lineup, and has a total of nine TDs in those eight games. The Dolphins’ low-risk, quick passing game since Tua’s return from his latest concussion has greatly benefitted Achane. Six of his nine TDs this season have been receiving touchdowns, and he is coming off a season-high nine targets last week.

Achane faces a beatdown Jets team on Sunday, who have given up 17 rushing touchdowns but only nine through the air. The way Miami utilizes Achane in the passing game is similar to a handoff, though. The Jets defense could be without star corner Sauce Gardner, and I would like this bet even more if they were. If Gardner can’t go, I think the Jets would need to give their corners a little extra help against the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, leaving more space for Achane around the line of scrimmage.

• Pick: De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-138 at bet365)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

At the time of writing this, there was a 52% chance of rain showers during the Jaguars vs Titans game, but it didn’t sound to be concerning rain that could have a dramatic effect on the passing game. If the weather report gets worse, you may want to consider laying off this pick.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight games, and he had two against the Commanders last week. While Calvin Ridley has been Will Levis’ favorite target, NWI has been the big-play threat. Three of his last four TDs have been at least 27 yards, with the longest being 98 yards.

Westbrook-Ikhine will see the Jaguars in Week 14, who are giving up more net yards per pass attempt than any other team. They have also allowed 24 touchdowns through the air, which is second-most in the NFL. Jacksonville’s defense has been crushed by big plays this season, as they have given up seven plays of 50+ yards (second-most), and ten plays of 40+ yards (fourth-most).

I’ll take the big-play threat to score another touchdown against a defense that can’t stop giving up big plays.

• Pick: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Anytime TD (+200 at BetMGM)

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James Cook

James Cook leads the Bills with 12 touchdowns this season, which is also tied for fourth-most in the NFL. He has at least one TD in eight of 11 games, which includes a touchdown in each of his last three.

Cook is preparing to face a pretty lousy Rams defense in Week 14, who ranks 21st in points allowed and 25th in total yards allowed. LA is surrendering 4.6 yards per carry and the sixth-most net yards per pass attempt. Buffalo should have no problem moving the ball against this Rams defense, and Cook has been the Bills’ go-to threat in the red zone. Cook has received 35 of Buffalo’s 119 red zone looks this season.

With all that in mind, I can’t believe we’re getting -115 odds on Cook to score a touchdown in this one. I figured it would be closer to -150.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (-115 at Caesars)

Xavier Worthy

If you told me at the beginning of the season that Xavier Worthy would be leading the Chiefs in touchdowns entering Week 14, I would have assumed he’d be the NFL OROY favorite. But that’s not the case, because Worthy hasn’t been that good, just as the Chiefs offense hasn’t been that good this season.

Worthy’s six touchdowns is one more than Kareem Hunt for the team-high, but the Chiefs have also seen 13 different players score touchdowns for them this season. Kansas City has needed to rely on contributions from so many different players this year partially due to injuries, but I also think it has to do with them being older and slower than we have seen before.

DeAndre Hopkins is 32 years old and Travis Kelce is 35. They have also been forced to lean on a 29-year-old Hunt in the backfield, who is averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Getting Isiah Pacheco back definitely helps, but I think the long week will have Andy Reid looking to try and inject a little more explosion into this offense ahead of a tough matchup with a good Chargers defense, especially after a sluggish performance against the Raiders, where they only managed 19 points and failed to close out the game with their offense.

Their most explosive player is without a doubt Worthy. The rookie has been getting more looks lately, as he has seen at least five touches in each of his last three games. It’s worth noting that he scored one of Kansas City’s two touchdowns in their first matchup with the Chargers back in Week 4. I think Reid knows they’ll need some creativity and explosion to put up points against an LA defense that has allowed the fewest in the league.

• Pick: Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+340 at FanDuel)

Tee Higgins

As I wrote last week, Tee Higgins has been a touchdown-scorer when he’s been on the field for the Bengals this season. Higgins has scored a TD in each of his last three games, and four of his last five.

What I find even more encouraging is that Higgins is seeing more targets per game this season than Ja’Marr Chase – the former averages 9.7 targets per game, while the latter averages 9.1. Higgins also averages more red zone looks per game with 1.71, compared to Chase’s 1.67.

In Week 14, Cincinnati will face a Cowboys defense that allows the fourth-most points and seventh-most yards in the NFL. Dallas has given up 26+ points in six of their last seven, with the Giants being the outlier who only scored 20.

I think we’ll be seeing a good amount of points from the Bengals offense on MNF, and I like Higgins to score at least one of those touchdowns.

• Pick: Tee Higgins Anytime TD (+135 at DraftKings)

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The post NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 14: Predictions for TD Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

We’re still a month away from the NFL postseason, but tonight’s NFC North showdown will have all the feelings of a playoff matchup when the Green Bay Packers head to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions. Kickoff for Thursday Night Football is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET.

Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Picks

This week’s Packers vs Lions SGP adds up to +750 , where a $100 bet will net a profit of $750 , but only if all four legs hit.

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Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Lions Alt Spread (-2.5)

First, I’m avoiding the current game line of -3 because no one wants a push! Who wants to see their parlay voided just because a team won by exactly a field goal? Instead, I’m moving the goalposts (pun intended) and taking a -2.5 alt spread.

The Lions are 9-3 ATS in 2024 and are 6-1 when laying five points or fewer as a favorite. In the games where they’ve covered the spread, Detroit has done so by 3.5 points or more eight out of nine times.

Compare this all against the Packers’ ATS record of 6-6 for the season – 2-3 away from home and 1-1 as road dogs – and taking Detroit to cover starts to make sense.

Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: First Half Over 24.5 Points

My reasoning for a high-scoring first half is three-fold: the Lions like to score early, the Packers also like to score early, and the Lions defense is beat up.

Detroit currently leads the league in first-half PPG at 18.5. That includes last week’s 16 points against Chicago, who you’d think Detroit should have pummeled but instead feel like a bogey team for the the Dan Campbell-era Lions. For that reason, I’d call last week’s result the exception and not the rule, particularly when it brings their three-game average down to 19.3.

The @Lions have scored 6+ TDs in three-straight home games for the first time in franchise history.

The @Lions have also scored 42+ points in three-straight home games, tying the franchise record-long streak, which was done in 1952.#OnePride pic.twitter.com/BzoX6wKV3T

— Detroit Lions PR (@LionsPR) November 17, 2024

Any results will look modest when compared to the highest scoring team in the league, but the Packers are no slouches when it comes to scoring early. Green Bay is currently averaging 14.0 1st Half PPG, averaging 16.0 in their last three games. I’m expect fireworks right from kickoff.

And if you’re in need of icing for your proverbial cake, check out the current depth chart for the Lions:

This screenshot, taken last night, isn’t my way of saying the Lions are going to roll over and die on defense. They’ve already made due without all those IR players (which I elaborate on below) and I don’t doubt they’ll have a game plan for the Packers. Having a full week off between two Thursday night games certainly helps.

But adding Malcolm Rodriguez and Mekhi Wingo to the IR before designating DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike as Out for TNF will undoubtedly embolden the Packers to make moves. That’s why I’m banking on both teams to be aggressive early.

Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Josh Jacobs 60+ Rushing Yards

I know I just finished talking about how the Packers “will be aggressive early,” but hear me out on why I’m going conservative on my Josh Jacobs leg of the parlay. Even when considering the Lions’ defensive injuries, there are reasons to be hesitant, particularly if you’re thinking of betting Jacobs’ O/U line tonight.

To his credit, Jacobs has hit 60+ yards in 9 of 12 games this season, while hitting 70+ in 8 of 12.  When his team is an away underdog, Jacobs career average is 75.4 YPG. This is exactly why his TNF O/U line of 69.5 looks so enticing.

However, Jacobs is considerably better when playing outdoors (76.2 YPG) than indoors (58.8 YPG), while his 2024 away underdog YPG is only 63.5.

Maybe Jacobs will light up the Lions for 90+ yards, like he did a month ago at Lambeau Field, but in the four games since the Lions have held opposing offenses to less than 100 rushing yards. That includes the likes of Joe Mixon (46 yds),  Jonathan Taylor (35 yds), and D’Andre Swift (39 yards), all of whom will likely hit 1,000 yards this season.

Again, that’s with a beat up Lions defense. It’s also worth noting that if Detroit takes an early lead, the Packers will likely take to the air to keep up.

Jacobs may be rounding into form right now, but the Lions’ rush defense continues to shine. I’m willing to hedge with a lower milestone total rather than the O/U wager.

Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Pick #4: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD Scorer

After scouring social media, I feel like I’m bucking trends by not taking a running back for Thursday’s Anytime TD scorer, but in doing so we can bring in a quality plus-money pick pick for the fourth leg of the parlay.

Yes, the Lions score a lot of rushing touchdowns. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combining for 21 TDs (not to mention almost 1,700 yards) in 12 games is borderline insanity. As for the Packers, a lot of bettors are honing in on Jacobs & the depleted Lions defense.

Any of those three players are quality TD options, but I believe there’s money in taking Amon-Ra St. Brown in this spot for a few reasons.

St. Brown is currently fourth in receptions, first in receiving first downs, and, most importantly, tied for second in receiving TDs. He’s just one away from a career high for TDs in a season (10) and has five games to get there. Three of his career thirty receiving touchdowns have come against the Packers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Mesh Throwback

Ben Johnson cooking
St. Brown runs to perfection pic.twitter.com/x5SLLMgF4x

— Mike Vannucci (@WRCoachVannucci) December 2, 2024

To be fair, the Packers don’t give up a lot of touchdowns, particularly this season as they currently sit tied for 10th and 12th in rushing and passing TDs allowed, respectively. Since 2019, Matt LaFleur’s defenses have given up 1.39 passing TDs per game, compared to just 0.92 rushing TD/G.

However, those passing TD averages go up when the Packers are playing as underdogs (1.52 TD/G) or when playing in a dome (1.76 TD/G).

These aren’t huge numbers when compared to league averages, but are still significant enough when it comes to the potential plan of attack for the Lions. It’s enough of an edge for me to look to St. Brown to score Thursday night.

The post Best Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Picks for TNF Week 14 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The Green Bay Packers are in Motown where they’re trying to snap the Detroit Lions’ 10-game win streak and cut into their NFC North lead. The NFC’s current top seed, Detroit is a 3-point home favorite in the Packers vs Lions odds.  In a game featuring the Lions’ top scoring offense and Green Bay, which ranks eighth in scoring, we’ve got plenty of prop bets to sort out. Catch the full list of Packers vs Lions player props below.

Packers vs Lions Player Props

Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs has the highest rushing yards total at 68.5, with Packers’ workhorse back Josh Jacobs right behind him at 66.5. Receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has the highest lines in both receptions (6.5) and yards (69.5). 

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As for the quarterbacks, both Jordan Love and Jared Goff have a completion line of 21.5, with Love given the highest passing yards prop at 248.5, just four yards higher than Goff in Thursday’s NFL player props.

Packers vs Lions Player Prop #1: Goff Passing Yards

Maybe it’s because divisional games are inherently tougher, or it’s a strong Green Bay defense, but Jared Goff looks downright ordinary against Green Bay.

The Lions’ pivot has thrown Under the passing yards line of 244.5 set for Thursday in four of the last five matchups with the Pack.

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Two of those times, he’s been held under 150, including this year, when he went 18-for-22 for 145 yards in their 24-14 win in Week 9.

Goff’s passing numbers have been stale of late, throwing Under the total in two of his last three.

Fortunately, the Lions have a stellar ground game that alleviates pressure off of him to do much heavy lifting. Good for Detroit, but bad if you’re taking the Over.

• Packers vs Lions Prop Pick: Goff Under 244.5 pass yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

GB vs DET Player Prop #2: St Brown Longest Reception

Amon-Ra St Brown has a knack for ripping off big gains against the Packers.

He has picked up a reception of 24 yards or more in four straight games, and five times in his seven career games against Green Bay.

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Since a 26-yard reception against them in Week 9, St Brown has topped his receiving-yard prop of 22.5 just once over the last seven games, and has failed to go Over in five straight.

The juice of a divisional rival game with first place in the NFC North and the top seed in the conference should bring St Brown an explosive play or two Thursday.

• Packers vs Lions Prop Picks: St Brown longest reception OVER 22.5 yards (-110); risk 2 units at DraftKings

Packers vs Lions Touchdown Scorer Props

The top running backs in this matchup love getting into the endzone. Detroit running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montogomery each have 11 TD runs between them, while Packers’ running back Josh Jacobs has eight majors. No surprise all have minus odds to cross the goal line on TNF.

Packers vs Lions Player Prop #3: Gibbs Gets In

• Packers vs Lions Prop Picks: Gibbs anytime TD (-150); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

Last week: 2-1

This season: 11-21, -9.39 units

The post Packers vs Lions Player Props – Best Bets for TNF (Week 14) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Call in a win for the schedule-makers in Week 14 as the NFC-leading Detroit Lions (11-1, 5-1 home, 9-3 ATS) get set to host the division-rival Green Bay Packers (9-3, 4-1 away, 6-6 ATS) at Ford Field on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is slated for 8:15 pm ET and the Lions, who opened as 4.5-point home chalk, are laying only 3.5 points as of Tuesday morning.

Packers vs Lions Odds

After opening as -225 chalk on Sunday night, Detroit is now just -185 on the moneyline, while the Packers have improved from +188 to +155 road underdogs.

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Early Packers vs Lions Public Betting Splits

While the early money was coming in on the Packers, which moved the line down a point, the public is now hammering the Lions with the spread at just 3.5. As of last Tuesday, Detroit was getting 76% of moneyline handle and 56% of ATS handle in the NFL public betting splits. Only the Denver Broncos (10-3 ATS) have a better record against the spread than the Lions this season, and Detroit will move into a tie with the Broncos if they cover on TNF.

The public is also siding with the under of 51.5, which is the highest total on the board in the Week 14 NFL odds. Currently, 65% of early money is on the under, but that hasn’t shifted the total at all. The line opened at 51.5 last Sunday and remains there. Detroit is just 5-7 O/U this year after going 13-7 last year (including playoffs). Green Bay is 5-6-1 O/U.

Green Bay vs Detroit H2H History

While the Packers still own a commanding 106-77-7 all-time head-to-head record against the Lions, Detroit has dominated this NFC North rivalry recently. The Lions have won five of the last six against the Packers, including a convincing 24-14 win at Lambeau earlier this season. The Lions dominated that game almost from the opening kick, taking a 17-3 lead into halftime and stretching it to 24-3 in the third quarter.

Green Bay did win in Detroit last season though (29-22), getting an outstanding performance from Jordan Love, who tied his career high with three touchdown passes on the day while also posting a 125.5 passer rating.

Packers vs Lions Picks

• Lions -3.5 (-105)
• Over 51.5 (-110) 

No offense to the Packers, they’re a solid team that deserves the playoff berth coming their way, but the Lions are an absolute truck. Detroit rates first in overall DVOA (43.2%) and grades out as the top team at PFF (93.4). And both metrics give the Lions a sizable gap on the field. Green Bay sits fifth overall in DVOA at 21.3%, but the gap between Detroit and Green Bay (21.9%) is roughly the same as the gap between Green Bay and 18th-ranked Seattle.

The Lions, despite being 11-1, will feel like this is a must-win game if they’re going to achieve their ultimate goal of bringing the franchise its first Super Bowl. The Vikings and Eagles are both 10-2 and breathing down Detroit’s neck for the one and only bye in the NFC.

The atmosphere at Ford Field is going to be electric, and I expect Dan Campbell’s Lions to come up big in a playoff-type environment.

The post Packers vs Lions Odds, Lines & Pick for TNF (Week 14) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The last week of the season with byes, NFL Week 14 includes 13 games, starting the the Green Bay Packers (8-3) vs Detroit Lions (10-1) on Thursday Night Football and culminating with an ugly MNF tilt between the underperforming Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) and borderline-unwatchable Dallas Cowboys (5-7). Luckly, Bengals/Cowboys is included in my three favorite NFL Week 14 ATS picks, which will add to the watchability.

Early NFL Week 14 ATS Picks

I’m taking three underdogs again this week and moving the line in all three.  Odds as of Dec. 3. Claim the best sportsbook promotions for NFL Week 14. 

Week 14 ATS Pick #1: Panthers +14.5 (-155) at Eagles

Here’s something I didn’t think I’d say this season: the Carolina Panthers are not that bad. Carolina is 2-2 straight-up in its last four and 4-0 against the spread. Their two setbacks in that span were a last-second 30-27 loss to Kansas City (as 10.5-point underdogs) and a 26-23 OT loss to Tampa Bay (as 6.5-point underdogs).

Now the Panthers are catching 12.5 points at the Eagles, and you can move the line up to +14.5 at -155 odds at BetMGM.

I have nothing negative to say about the Eagles, but they don’t play in the highest-scoring games (44.8 PPG on average) and their tendency to run the ball (NFL-best 188.9 rushing yards per game) churns clock and shortens games.

Week 14 ATS Pick #2: Chargers +3.5 (-100) vs Chiefs

The Chiefs are not playing like a two-time defending Super Bowl champion. While their 11-1 record is tied with Detroit for the best record in the league, their +54 point differential isn’t even in the top ten, and its 18 points worse than the 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers (+72).

Kansas City enters on a two-game win streak but those wins were by three points and two points against the Panthers (30-27) and Raiders (19-17), who are a combined 5-19. The Chiefs are an ugly 5-7 ATS and have lost six in a row against the number.

The Chargers, on the other hand, have the fourth-best ATS record in the league (8-4) and have covered five or their last six. LAC has also played reasonably well away from home, going 4-2 away so far.

Week 14 ATS Pick #3: Bengals vs Cowboys +3.5 (+130)

The Bengals are broken, at least on defense. Cincinnati’s 44-38 loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday was the fourth time in five games the defense conceded 34 or more points. Only Carolina (30.5 PPG) is allowing more points per game than the Bengals (28.3).

Facing a Cooper Rush-led Dallas offense might be just the remedy, and Joe Burrow might absolutely tee-off on a bad Cowboy defense that is tied with Cincinnati for second-worse in the league (28.3 PPG). But there is just no way I can lay points with the Bengals right now given how brutally their defense is playing.

Another reason I’m fading Cincinnati is that their playoff hopes are dead. Not mathematically, but realistically. Even before last week’s loss to Pittsburgh, their playoff chances were on life support. Now it will take a miracle of epic proportions for 4-8 Cincinnati to catch 7-5 Denver and leapfrog 5-7 Miami and 6-7 Indianapolis in the process. This might be the week the majority of the disappointed Bengals roster quits on the season.

The post NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.