NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 11

• NFL Week 11 features some premier matchups on Sunday, November 17
• In this week’s NFL picks, I am targeting Ravens vs Steelers, Browns vs Saints, and Chiefs vs Bills
• Keep reading for our NFL Week 11 expert picks against the spread

Week 11 in the NFL is shaping up to be a great one. Thursday Night Football featured a divisional matchup between the Commanders and Eagles, and there are three more divisional games on Sunday. The Ravens travel to Pittsburgh for an AFC North battle, the Bears host the Packers, and the Seahawks face the 49ers.

Only one Week 11 matchup (Jaguars vs Lions) has a double-digit spread. On top of all that, we get another Chiefs vs Bills showdown, which has given us some instant classics over the past few seasons. That is certainly the game of the week and has major implications for the NFL playoff bracket.

I am looking at three underdogs on Sunday in my NFL Week 11 best bets. See below for all my NFL picks this weekend.

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Odds as of Friday, November 15 at bet365. Be sure to claim the best bet365 bonus code before placing your NFL Week 11 bets.

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Week 11 ATS Pick #1: Steelers +3 vs Ravens

Underdogs in AFC North matchups always get a look for me, especially when it is between the Ravens and Steelers. The underdog in this series is 28-10-3 (74%) against the spread over the last 20 years, and Mike Tomlin as an underdog is 62-35-4 (63.9%) against the spread as a head coach. The latest NFL odds have the Steelers as three-point home underdogs, and these games are always close and hard-fought, so I like getting a field goal here for Pittsburgh at home.

Tomlin made the tough decision of benching Justin Fields with a 4-2 record to go with Russell Wilson. That decision has paid off as the Steelers have gone 3-0 since making the switch, and the offense has moved the ball much better. The Steelers are averaging over 30 points per game over their last three.

The Ravens are better than those three teams the Steelers have faced, but their secondary is banged up and has struggled all season. This will be a close game, but Russell Wilson gives Pittsburgh’s offense a great chance to keep up with Lamar Jackson and Baltimore’s high-powered offense. I’ll take the Steelers to cover the spread.

• Pick: Steelers +3 (+100)

Week 11 ATS Pick #2: Browns +1 vs Saints

The Saints got a huge win over the Falcons last week under their interim head coach, Darren Rizzi. Even though they are still at home, this is a letdown spot for New Orleans. They got the interim head coach bump in Week 10, but they should come back down to earth against Cleveland and their defense.

New Orleans’s receiving corps is still depleted, and the Browns are off a bye week. The Saints have given up the second most rushing yards per carry this season with 5.2, and Nick Chubb has been getting healthier and healthier each week. Chubb has not been efficient since his return, but he went up against tough run defenses in the Bengals, Ravens, and Chargers.

Cleveland will be able to control this game, and even though their defense has been inconsistent, I trust them a lot more than I do the Saints in this spot. The Browns go into New Orleans and get the win.

• Pick: Browns +1 (-115)

Week 11 ATS Pick #3: Chiefs +2.5 vs Bills

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Similar to my Steelers pick, seeing Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is as close to an auto-bet as you can get. Mahomes is 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career. His only ATS loss did come against the Bills in the 2022 regular season, so Buffalo could do it again, this time at home.

Patrick Mahomes against the spread as an underdog

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Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS ✅@Chiefs +2.5 at Bills pic.twitter.com/qbP5bdvSHg

— John Ewing (@johnewing) November 13, 2024

Even before Mahomes, the Chiefs have done well as dogs. Since 2016, Kansas City has gone 18-5-1 against the spread as underdogs. This season, the Chiefs just keep finding ways to win. Last week was the perfect example of that as they beat the Broncos by blocking a last-second field goal.

Josh Allen and the Bills have looked unstoppable at times this season and are riding a five-game winning streak. They are back at home this game, so they will have Bills Mafia on their side, but the Chiefs went into Orchard Park last year in the playoffs and won. The Chiefs can certainly do it again on Sunday, and the public agrees with me as 81% of the bets are currently on Chiefs +2.5 in the latest NFL betting splits.

While the Bills offense has been great, their defense has struggled. They allow 4.9 yards per carry, and Kareem Hunt has looked good since returning to Kansas City. I trust the Chiefs defense much more than Buffalo’s, so pairing that with Mahomes as an underdog makes me believe that Kansas City will cover the spread in what should be a very entertaining game to watch.

• Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-110)