Updated Alabama vs LSU Odds & Expert Prediction (Nov. 9)

• Alabama meets LSU in a classic “First Saturday in November” matchup
• The LSU Tigers are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games at home
• Check out our updated Alabama vs LSU predictions and odds, below

The premier “First Saturday in November” CFB matchup kicks off this Saturday, November 9 as #11 Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC) goes to war with #14 LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC). This SEC battle is a must-win game for each squad, as the loser will effectively be eliminated from the College Football Playoff bracket. Keep in mind, the winner of this contest made the CFP in nine out of ten years in the four-team playoff era.

Catch this one over on ABC and ESPN + as all the action gets underway at 7:30 ET from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Look for the updated Alabama vs LSU odds and our expert predictions, below.

Alabama vs LSU Odds

Alabama are 2.5-point favorites in the college football Week 11 odds. The total for Alabama vs LSU is set at 58.5 points. Bettors love the Crimson Tide in this one, as 67% of spread bets are on Alabama to cover in the latest  college football public betting splits.

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Odds as of November 9 at FanDuel. Check out the best football betting apps for Alabama vs LSU.

Alabama Betting News & Notes

Alabama enters this crucial SEC clash riding high after blowing out Missouri 34-0 last week. Despite a tough schedule, Kalen DeBoer’s squad sit in the top-15 in the nation defensively in opponent points per game (18.6), yards per play (4.5), and third-down conversion percentage (31.2).

Crucially, the Crimson Tide allow just 3.7 yards per carry and rank 17th in the FBS in EPA allowed per rush. Plus, Kane Wommack’s defense are sixth in passing success rate surrendered.

On offense, the Crimson Tide are extremely run-heavy. Which bodes well against a vulnerable LSU front seven. They rank a stellar 35th in success rate, and are 22nd in EPA per rush this season. Additionally, the Crimson Tide are a big play waiting to happen. A wild 10.2% of their plays gain 20+ yards, the third-highest number in the FBS.

Anyways, Jalen Milroe highlights vs LSU 🔥

pic.twitter.com/awAcbNUWjU https://t.co/8joqsl1qFk

— 18x National Champions 🐘 (@_Tide18Tymes) June 2, 2024

Quarterback Jalen Milroe will have to be at his playmaking best to unlock this offense. The junior pivot has looked pedestrian in losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. However, he stepped up to the plate and destroyed Georgia earlier this season, with 501 total yards and four touchdowns. If the LSU defense can’t keep him under wraps in the pocket, Milroe will make them pay.

LSU Betting News & Notes

LSU’s offense is solely reliant on the right arm of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. The joyful junior has tossed for 2,627 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the season.

His unbelievable anticipation skills and deep ball accuracy led the Tigers to a thrilling comeback victory over Ole Miss earlier this season. However, even Nussmeier’s magic tricks weren’t enough to overcome a Texas A&M onslaught in LSU’s last contest.

hop on the bus, Nuss.

you don’t need to discuss muuuccchhhhh.

I’m a big fan of how Garrett Nussmeier has been playing so far this year. Accurate, willing and able to attack all 3 levels and plays with a great feel for the position (pressure to sack rate of just 2.8% so far!) pic.twitter.com/ellCUBYql9

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 1, 2024

Concerningly, the Tigers have struggled to run the football and sit dead last in the SEC in rushing offense while totaling just 122 yards per game. LSU sits 83rd in PFF run-blocking grade and rank 112th nationally in EPA per rush (-0.07). Making matters worse, starting left guard Garrett Dellinger will miss this contest with an ankle injury.

On defense, Blake Baker’s unit has been carved up by mobile quarterbacks lately. Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed promptly led the Aggies to a second-half comeback while rushing for three scores in Week 9. If Milroe shakes loose early, it could be game over for the Tigers.

Updated Expert Alabama vs LSU Prediction

Alabama has lost two straight games in Death Valley. However, LSU’s defense looked helpless once Texas A&M switched to a running quarterback. The Aggies dominated in the trenches in the second half and bullied the Tigers beaten up front seven. The Crimson Tide will look to follow that script on Saturday night.

Ultimately, this Alabama vs LSU contest will come down to who can produce more offense in the fourth quarter. With both Jalen Milroe and Garrett Nussmeier capable of creating explosive plays out of nowhere, expect to see a plethora of points scored.

These teams are desperate for a victory and will push to score late. The over has hit in nine of Alabama’s last 12 games as the favorite. Bet on that trend to continue vs LSU.

• Updated Alabama vs LSU pick: Over 58.5 points (-110)