Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Odds & Prediction – Wimbledon Final
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Updated: July 17, 2023 at 10:21 am EDTPublished:
- The top two seeds meet in the Wimbledon men’s singles final as Carlos Alcaraz faces Novak Djokovic
- It’s a rematch of their French Open semifinal a month ago, won by Djokovic
- Can Djokovic win Slam No. 24? Or will Alcaraz stop him? We break it down
The highly anticipated French Open semifinal between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic didn’t really deliver. But that could change Sunday in the Wimbledon men’s singles final. Read on for an Alcaraz vs Djokovic analysis.
Alcaraz vs Djokovic Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) | +3.5 (-120) | +160 | O 40.5 (-120) |
| [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -3.5 (+100) | -195 | U 40.5 (+100) |
At -195 odds, Djokovic is a slight favorite in the Alcaraz vs Djokovic odds for Sunday’s Wimbledon final (9 a.m. ET). Alcaraz is the underdog at +160 odds. The total games are set at 40.5 in their final.
Odds as of July 15 at DraftKings. Take a look at our DraftKings promo code page before making your Alcaraz vs Djokovic Wimbledon Men’s final picks.
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Clutch Tennis From Djokovic
Djokovic, the betting favorite from the get-go, had a relatively smooth path to the final.
He dropped a set to the big-serving Hubert Hurkacz in the fourth round. And he lost the first set to No. 7 seed Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals.
But his straight-sets win over No. 8 seed Jannik Sinner in the semis Friday was a master class in using his vastly more extensive experience in the big moments.
When things got tight, Djokovic raised his level. When Sinner had opportunities, he made some loose errors.
Djokovic saved all six breakpoints he faced. And he won 60 percent of his second-serve points.
His biggest issue was a (rare) hindrance call after he let out a. yell as Sinner was about to return the ball.
Alcaraz Rolls over Medvedev
The 20-year-old Spaniard’s early draw was friendly. But it allowed him to gain momentum and confidence on a still-unfamiliar surface.
https://twitter.com/Wimbledon/status/1679952154193215489
And by the time he ran into No. 6 seed Holger Rune in the quarterfinals and No. 3 Daniil Medvedev in the semis, he had a head of steam. He dispatched both with alacrity, in straight sets, and reinforced the message that beyond Djokovic he was the biggest threat in the draw to win the title.
Alcaraz vs Djokovic Head-to-Head
| 20 (May 5, 2003) | Age | 36 (May 22, 1987) |
| El Palmar, Spain | Birthplace | Belgrade, Serbia |
| 6-0 | Height | 6-2 |
| 11 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 94 |
| 1 | Career Grand Slam Titles | 23 |
| No. 1 (Sept. 12, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 1 (July 4, 2011) |
| No. 1 | Current Ranking | No. 2 |
| $16,660,732 | Career Prize Money | $169,762,762 |
| 46-4 | 2023 Won/Loss Record | 33-4 |
| 1 | Head-to-Head Wins | 1 |
Alcaraz’s only problem is that the last man standing in the way of winning his first Wimbledon title is … Djokovic.
Alcaraz vs Djokovic Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | French Open (SF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 | Djokovic |
| 2022 | Madrid Masters (SF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-7 (5), 7-5, 7-6 (5) | Alcaraz |
The two previous meetings between the two came on clay, arguably Alcaraz’s best surface at the moment (although his first Grand Slam title came on hard courts at the US Open, without Djokovic in the draw).
Much might be made about Alcaraz winning their first meeting in Madrid. But Djokovic had played just one tournament in the first 3 1/2 months of the season; he was far from being in top form. And if there’s a place to get the Serb these days, it’s in a best-of-three set format.
In best-of-five, it’s a tough ask.
https://youtu.be/rQagJ45Dc3g
Their highly-anticipated meeting in the French Open semifinals was a bit of a dud. Mostly because Alcaraz cramped up – not necessarily because of the physical, although Djokovic can do that to an opponent, but because the pressure and nerves and stress hit him in that big occasion.
He’s only had a month to digest and process that and take steps to try to ensure it doesn’t happen again.
Alcaraz vs Djokovic Prediction
Until – if – Djokovic shows signs of slowing down, he’ll remain the best bet in a major. And as a man who’s already won seven Wimbledons (including the last four) and hasn’t lost at the All-England Club since 2017, it would take an otherworldly effort from Alcaraz and a sub-par day from Djokovic to cause the upset.
There is some value in the moneyline and the game spread. But given how Djokovic has out-aced most of his opponents, and Alcaraz has averaged fewer than half a dozen per match (and wasn’t facing the best returner in the world), there is value in including that prop as well.
Alcaraz vs Djokovic Picks: Djokovic Wins, Serves the Most Aces, over 40.5 Games (+310)
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Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
