It’s all on the line for Team USA on Tuesday afternoon in France. After losing to France 3-0 to start the Paris Olympics, the United States bounced back with a convincing 4-1 win over New Zealand in their second game. Now they must take down Guinea on Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET to advance to the Round of 16. Coverage of the game can be found on the USA Network, Telemundo and Peacock.

USA vs Guinea Picks

• USA -0.5 1st half (+100)
• USA over 2.5 goals (+155)

I’m going all-in on this version of Team USA. After watching the Copa America debacle earlier this summer, the new coaching staff will be eager to make a statement in Paris. Losing 3-0 to host France wasn’t a good start to the tournament, but this team showed how good it can be against lesser foes with a 4-1 thumping of New Zealand.

Team USA got off to a red-hot start against New Zealand, scoring 3 times in the opening 30 minutes of the match. That’s something the senior team has lacked in recent years, so it was a good sign for the Americans. Look for them to try to replicate that success. Maybe they won’t score 3 goals in 30 minutes, but I expect them to have at least a 1-0 lead at halftime. To get even +100 odds on that via BetMGM is great value.

I think this team is capable of holding Guinea scoreless, but I’m not confident they can avoid a stupid mistake that allows a goal. What I am confident of is that Team USA will keep its foot on the gas pedal in the attacking third, scoring 3+ goals in this super-important game. Take USA to have 3+ goals at +155 odds and don’t look back!

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USA vs Guinea Odds

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As expected, Team USA is a heavy favorite, sporting -210 odds to win. But if you think the U23 Olympic team will falter against a lesser foe like the senior national team, you can get good odds. BetMGM currently has a tie after 90 minutes at +333 and an outright Guinea win at +475. The US really needs this game to advance, so we’ll see if they can handle the pressure of if Guinea pulls off a stunning upset.

USA vs Guinea Longshot Props

• USA over 3.5 goals (+400)
• Correct score USA 4, Guinea 1 (+1750)

These are longshot bets, so I won’t be placing a full unit on either of these picks. But there’s value in these props if you, like me, think Team USA will dominate its counterpart on Tuesday afternoon in France.

The US attack hit its stride against New Zealand, and I think there’s a chance that continues. Team USA scored 4 goals against New Zealand, and beat Guinea 2-1 head-to-head. Team USA should have plenty of great opportunities to put the ball in the back of the net.

Even with 2 of the 3 allowed players over 23 on the roster playing in defense, this team still has a knack for making at least 1 silly mistake a game. I expect that trend to continue, which is why I think Guinea will score exactly 1 goal in this match. But with odds for a 4-1 final score, a repeat of the New Zealand final, at +1750 on BetMGM, I think there’s value in placing a small bet on that exact score.

The post USA vs Guinea Predictions & Picks for Olympic Men’s Soccer appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Defending Copa America and World Cup-champion Argentina (4-1-0) clash with the hottest team on the globe, Colombia, in the final of the 2024 Copa America on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET and the Argentines are favored to win their third straight  major-tournament trophy.

Argentina vs Colombia Odds

Argentina are +109 to win in regular time with Colombia at a long +375 and a full-time draw at just +200. The over/under on 1.5 goals favors the over at -175 with under 1.5 at +137. Only one of each team’s first five matches in the tournament stayed under 1.5 goals. Neither has played a goal-less draw. Colombia’s first five games have averaged 2.8 GPG while Argentina’s have averaged 2.0 GPG.

The 2024 Copa America championship odds currently list Argentina at -200 to lift the trophy and Colombia at +162.

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Colombia Blank Uruguay, But Lose Daniel Munoz

Colombia put on a defensive masterclass in the semifinals against Uruguay. Despite playing the final 45 minutes with ten men – after right back Daniel Munoz received two first-half yellows – they held Uruguay to just 0.65 xGF over 90 minutes and three shots on target.

While the teams were playing 11 aside in the first half, Colombia was the more dangerous team and were good value for Jefferson Lerma’s 39th-minute goal, headed in off a James Rodriguez corner.

The win over Uruguay stretched Colombia’s unbeaten streak to a world-best 28 games, which includes every game under coach Nestor Lorenzo, who took over in July 2022 after Colombia disappointingly missed out on the 2022 World Cup. Lorenzo has a 19-6-0 record in all competitions as the Colombia boss.

Munoz, a Crystal Palace defender who has the third-highest estimated transfer value among the Colombia team, is suspended for the final.  Santiago Arias is the most-likely player to slot in at right back. The 32-year-old former Atletico Madrid player has spend the past two seasons in MLS and Brazil’s Serie A.

Argentina Outclass Canada … Again

Argentina have advanced to their second straight Copa America final, and did so without having to face a team ranked higher than  30th in the world (Ecuador). During the group stage, they went 3-0-0 with three clean sheets against Canada (2-0), Chile (1-0), and Peru (2-0).

Argentina drew Ecuador in the quarters and were on pace for a regular-time victory before a goal in the final minutes stoppage time allowed Ecuador to level the match at 1-1 after 90 minutes. Despite Lionel Messi missing the first penalty of the ensuing shootout, Emiliano Martinez backstopped Argentina to another penalty victory.

In the semifinals, upstart Canada was outclassed in another 2-0 decision with Argentina winning both halves 1-0 and conceding just two shots on target over the 90. Messi finally scored his first goal of the tournament, an insurance marker just six minutes into the second half.

Lautaro Martinez still leads the Golden Boot race with four goals, all of which came in the group stage. Luis Diaz, Jhon Cordoba, and Munoz lead Colombia with two each.

Argentina didn’t suffer any injuries or suspensions in the semifinal and should have their full complement of players available for the final against Colombia.

Argentina vs Colombia Picks, Predictions & Props to Target

Finding fault with Argentina’s run through the tournament is not an easy task, but compared to Colombia’s indomitable five-match stretch, Argentina looked like the second-best side heading into Sunday’s final.

Lorenzo has Colombia humming in all phases of the game, and James Rodriguez appears to have accessed a time machine. The 33-year-old, who won the Golden Boot at the 2014 World Cup a decade ago, has scored or assisted on seven of Colombia’s 12 goals (one goal, six assists).

Colombia have faced stiffer competition – including a 1-1 draw with Brazil in the group stage – and were the better team on the field in every match they’ve played. I’m not betting Colombia to win in regular time, but I have no interest in betting them to lose.

• Double-chance: Colombia or draw (-138 at bet365)
• First half under 0.5 goals (+145 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 32-19-1 (+14.72 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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The 2024 UEFA European Championship comes to a close on Sunday as three-time champion Spain meet zero-time champion England, who are looking to one-up their second-place finish in the 2020 edition. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 pm ET at Olympiastadion Berlin.

The Spanish head into Sunday’s Euro 2024 final as slight favorites, priced at +145 to win in regular time and -248 to lift the trophy at FanDuel with England at +250 to win in 90 minutes and +126 to finally capture their first European Championship.

Spain vs England Predictions & Picks

• First half under 0.5 (+144 at FanDuel)
• Spain to lift the trophy (-148 at FanDuel)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 33-20-1 (+15.17 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

England’s 2-1 win over the Netherlands in the semifinals witnessed an uncharacteristically open first half for the Three Lions. They allowed the Dutch forwards to break forward with pace early on and found themselves in another 1-0 deficit. (England had to come from behind in each of their three knockout-stage victories.) As Gareth Southgate will have seen, after Spain took a 2-1 lead on France in the other semifinal, the French hardly sniffed a goalscoring opportunity over the final 65 minutes.

That’s slight hyperbole, as Kylian Mbappe did have a quality chance to equalize in the second half, but overall, the Spanish put on a true masterclass in defending-through-possession. Spain had 60% of the ball in the second half while defending the lead, and completed 89.5% of their passes. France mustered just three shots on target over the 90 minutes.

In sum, Southgate’s England side will know that falling behind for a fourth straight game is apt to be a death sentence.

After conceding to Xavi Simons in the seventh minute in the semis, England’s defense straightened up. The Dutch had just one shot on target thereafter and generated just 0.15 xGF in the second half as England controlled 61% of possession. That’s the England side I expect to see from the jump in Sunday’s final. The one that leans on its rock-solid backline and doesn’t push for opportunities that aren’t there.

Spain was forced to press the issue against France after conceding early, but I don’t expect an early tally from England, which should lead to the championship game resembling Spain’s quarterfinal with Germany, which featured just 0.50 xGF in the first half.

I love the value on a scoreless first half at +144 at FanDuel, which equates to just a 40.98% implied probability.

Over 90 minutes and potential extra time, however, I am backing Spain to win their record-setting fourth Euro title. They will have their full complement of players available (right back Daniel Carvajal and center back Robin Le Normand were both suspended against France) and have been the best, most-complete team throughout the past month.

Best Spain vs England Odds for Euro 2024 Final

The best three-way moneyline prices are currently at bet365, which is offering an “enhanced moneyline” with just a 2.1% vig. At beg365, Spain are priced at +150 to win in regular time while England are +262 and a full-time draw is sitting at +190.

The best odds to lift the trophy, however, are at FanDuel, where the Spanish are -148 and England is +126. FanDuel also has the best odds on over 2.5 goals (+158) while bet365 has the best odds on under 2.5 (-188).

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Canada (1-3-2) and Uruguay (3-1-1) are set to meet in the third-place game at the 2024 Copa America on Saturday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina (8:00 pm ET).

Battling for a consolation prize, one would expect the teams to enter Saturday with starkly different attitudes.

For Canada, qualifying for the knockout stage rendered the entire tournament a success, and reaching the semifinals was one of the biggest results in team history. Uruguay entered the tournament with legitimate title aspirations, and looked the part of a potential champion before losing to Colombia (1-0) in a semifinal that saw them playing a man up for the entire second half.

Though the Canadians may have more motivation to win, the Canada vs Uruguay odds heavily favor the South American side capturing third-place.

Canada vs Uruguay Odds: Copa America Third-Place Game

The Canada vs Uruguay three-way moneyline lists La Celeste at -185 to win in regular time and -550 to finish third. A Canadian regular-time victory is priced at a long +500 and Canada is +320 to win the bronze medal, so to speak. A 90-minute draw is currently sitting at +320 odds.

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Uruguay entered the tournament as a +550 third-favorite to win in the Copa America odds, trailing only Argentina and Brazil. (With Argentina facing Colombia in Sunday’s title game, the reigning World Cup and Copa-champions are now -169 chalk to repeat.)

Canada’s star player, Bayern Munich full back Alphonso Davies, had to leave the team’s semifinal loss to Argentina in the second half due to an ankle injury. While x-rays came back negative, Davies is still very much in doubt to start on Saturday.

Uruguay will be without Nicolas de la Cruz, who is suspended after receiving a yellow card in the loss to Colombia. Midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur is in doubt for the third-place game after leaving the semifinal with a leg injury in the 32nd minute.

Canada Recent Results

Canada’s 2-0 loss to Argentina on Tuesday was the fifth time in the last seven games that Jesse Marsch’s team failed to score a goal. They advanced out of Group A with just one tally to their name and added a second in a 1-1 draw with Venezuela in the round of 16, which they eventually won on penalties.

That said, Canada’s attack has looked more and more vigorous as the tournament has gone on. After averaging just 6.33 shot attempts per game in the group stage (2.66 on target), they fired 16 attempts at goal (seven on target) in the Venezuela match alone.

Uruguay Recent Results

Uruguay couldn’t parlay its high-scoring group-stage sweep into knockout-stage success. La Celeste failed to score a single goal during a 0-0 draw with Brazil, which they won 4-2 on penalties, or a 1-0 loss to Colombia, which they played 11-vs-10 for the entire second half.

Uruguay generated just 0.65 xGF against the Colombians, with star striker Darwin Nunez looking particularly uninspired in front of goal.

Nunez had been the key to Uruguay’s recent run of success. He had scored in seven straight matches, including Uruguay’s tournament-opening wins over Panama and Bolivia. But the Liverpool man has now been kept off the scoresheet in three straight.

Nunez, Betancur, and several other Uruguay players were involved in a post-game melee in the stands with Colombian fans on Wednesday. But it doesn’t appear as if suspensions or injuries resulted that will impact the third-place game.

Canada vs Uruguay Predictions

If this game meant more, I would have a hard time backing a so-far lethargic Canadian attack against a defense as resolute as Uruguay’s. But the Copa America has a long history of wide-open third-placed games in which defensive resolve noticeably wanes.  Seven of the last nine have gone over 2.5 goals, including each of the last two. The most-recent third-place game was a 3-2 thriller in which Colombia edged Peru.

Even without the speed of Davies and Tajon Buchanan, who suffered a broken leg in practice before the Venezuela match, Canada still has plenty of quality attacking players, including the fleet-footed Jacob Shaffelburg, who’s looked like a perfect addition next to Mallorca’s Cyle Larin and Lille’s Jonathan David up front.

I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Canada game out pressing the action and nicked the first goal of the game en route to a full-time draw.

Canada vs Uruguay picks:

• Canada to score first goal (+210 at FanDuel)
• Double-chance Canada or Draw (+145 at DraftKings)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 32-19-1 (+14.72 units). All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

The post Canada vs Uruguay Odds, Predictions & Best Picks for Copa America Third-Place Game appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A true heavyweight matchup is cued up for the 2024 Euro final as Spain get set to lock horns with England this Sunday (July 14) in Berlin at 3:00 pm ET. La Roja, who have won four of their first five matches in regular time,  are positioned as slight favorites in the opening Spain vs England odds.

Spain vs England Odds for Euro 2024 Final

The opening Euro 2024 final odds list Spain as +135 favorites to win in regular time. England are +225 underdogs, with a full-time draw sitting at +187.

The Euro 2024 odds to lift the trophy see Spain favored at -150 and the English at +120 to win their first major-tournament title since the 1966 World cup.

As with most major tournament finals, the over/under projects a low-scoring game. Under 2.5 goals is favored at -188 with the over priced at +150.

Odds as of July 10 at bet365. See the best online sports betting offers for the Euro 2024 final. 

Spain’s Path to the Euro Final

Spain have been the most-impressive team of the tournament, blitzing through a difficult Group B with wins over Croatia (3-0), Italy (1-0) and Albania (1-0). In the knockout stage, they obliterated Georgia (5-1) before surviving extra time against host Germany (2-1 a.e.t.) and then coming from behind in spectacular fashion to oust France (2-1).

Soon-to-be 17-year-old Lamine Yamal scored the goal of the tournament (so far) to level the match with France just 12 minutes after Randal Kolo Muani gave the French an early lead.

Dani Olmo would score what proved to be the winner just four minutes later as Spain put on a defensive masterclass over the final 65 minutes.

England’s Path to the Euro Final

A lackluster group-stage performance (1-2-0, +1 goal differential) led to a trio of razor-thin victories in the knockout stage for England. The Three Lions had to come from behind in all three, and had to go beyond 90 minutes in both the round of 16 and quarterfinals, first squeaking past Slovakia (2-1 a.e.t.), then edging Switzerland on penalties after a 1-1 full-time draw.

On Wednesday, they conceded just eight minutes into their semifinal with the Netherlands, but a Harry Kane penalty later in the first half equalized before a stunning stoppage-time winner from Ollie Watkins sent England through to the final.

Recent Spain vs England H2H History

The post Spain vs England Odds – Spain Favored Over Three Lions in Euro 2024 Final appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The second semifinal of the 2024 Copa America features arguably the two most-impressive teams of the tournament so far: Uruguay (3-1-0) and Colombia (3-1-0). Wednesday’s game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, is a rematch of the quarterfinals from the 2021 Copa America, when Colombia progressed on penalties, 0-0 (4-2). The teams have played two World Cup qualifiers since, both ending in draws as well.

It’s no surprise, then, that the Uruguay vs Colombia odds for July 10 list a full-time draw at just +189, shorter than either a Uruguay or a Colombia victory.

Uruguay vs Colombia Odds

The “enhanced moneyline” at bet365 lists Uruguay at +190 to win in 90 minutes and Colombia at +200. Both teams are priced at -110 to advance, however.

The over/under heavily favors under 2.5 goal (-200), with the over at +162.

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With Argentina already advancing to the final after a decisive victory over Canada in the first semifinal on Tuesday, Colombia and Uruguay both enter their own semifinal as relative longshots to win the tournament in the latest 2024 Copa America odds: Uruguay is +275 to lift the trophy with Colombia at +333. Argentina is -138 to win their second straight Copa title.

The recent head-to-head history between Uruguay and Colombia is, as mentioned, very even.

Recent H2H History: Uruguay vs Colombia

Uruguay and Colombia have played three straight full-time draws since 2021, two which ended scoreless after 90 minutes, including their quarterfinal matchup in the 2021 Copa America. 

Prior to that, Uruguay had won two of three by identical 3-0 scores. Overall, they are undefeated against Colombia in regular time since the 2014 World Cup, when Colombia earned a 2-0 victory to advance to the quarterfinals.

Uruguay vs Colombia Picks & Predictions

All due respect to Argentina, no teams have looked better than Uruguay and Colombia in the 2024 Copa America. Uruguay absolutely blitzed Group C, finishing 3-0-0 with a +8 goal differential before a dreadfully boring 0-0 (4-2 penalties) win over Brazil in the quarters.

It’s clear that Colombia aren’t here to play nil-nil draws. Los Cafeteros scored ten goals in their first four games, including an uncompromising 5-0 win over Panama in the quarterfinals. In the group stage, they beat Costa Rica (5-0) and Paraguay (2-1) before  a much more entertaining 1-1 draw with Brazil.

But the unstoppable force that is Colombia’s attack is coming up against the immovable object of Uruguay’s defense. Uruguay has surrendered just one goal in the tournament so far, and it came in the final minute of extra time against Panama when they were already ahead 3-0.

They also kept clean sheets against Mexico and Costa Rica in their final two pre-tournament friendlies, meaning the late tally by Panama is the only goal Uruguay have conceded in the last 540 minutes.

On the whole, I expect Uruguay’s defensive style to win out, literally and figuratively. Uruguay won’t be coerced into a wide-open style of play, and Colombia will be hard-pressed to break through Uruguay’s well-drilled backline.

URU vs COL picks:

• Under 0.5 goals (+590 at FanDuel)
• Uruguay to advance to final (-110 at bet365)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 36-20-1 (+18.84 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

The post Uruguay vs Colombia Predictions, Picks, Best Bets & Odds – Copa America Semifinals (July 10) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The semifinal that many neutrals were hoping for when the bracket was set has come to fruition as England (1-4-0) get set to face the Netherlands (3-1-1) at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund on Wednesday, July 10 (3:00 pm ET), with a berth in the Euro 2024 final on the line.

Though England haven’t looked their best at any point during their first five games of the tournament, they are slight favorites in the England vs Netherlands odds due to their pedigree.

England vs Netherlands Odds

An England victory in 90 minutes is listed at +165 with a Netherlands win at +220 and a full-time draw at just +175. England’s odds to advance to the final are sitting at -134. Netherlands is priced at +110 to reach the final

The over/under heavily favors under 2.5 goals (-194). Over 2.5 is currently +158.

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The winner of England vs Netherlands will advance to face the winner of Spain vs France in the 2024 Euro final on Sunday, July 14, at Olympiastadion Berlin. England are seeking their second straight appearance in the Euro final after falling to Italy on penalties in 2020. The Netherlands haven’t reached the final since 1988, when they beat the Soviet Union (2-0) for their one and only European triumph.

The Euro 2024 odds entering the semifinals list Spain as +191 favorites, on average, followed by England (+246) and France (+274), with the Netherlands the longest shot on the board at +450.

England Escapes Switzerland in Quarters

For 75  minutes on Saturday, England played a dreadfully boring nil-nil game with Switzerland before Breel Embolo poked home a cross to give the Swiss a 1-0 lead. Bukayo Saka, who was the most-dangerous England player throughout the game, pulled his team level just five minutes later on a seeing-eye shot from the top of the box that went post-and-in.

England blasted five near-perfect penalties past Yann Sommer after a scoreless extra time while Jordan Pickford’s save off Manuel Akanji on Switzerland’s first attempt proved the difference. Overall, there’s a strong case to be made that the Swiss were the better team and were more deserving of advancing.

Dutch Comeback to Beat Turkey

The Netherlands played one of their most-anemic halves of football in the first 45 against Turkey in the quarters. They didn’t generate a single shot on target or even a corner kick as Turkey took a 1-0 lead into the break. But their second-half performance was a complete 180. They controlled 58% of possession and put four shots on target, two of which beat Turkish keeper Mert Gunok en route to a 2-1 comeback victory.

Concerningly, Dutch goalie Bart Verbruggen was forced into a couple of victory-saving stops in the final ten minutes. Paired with the Netherlands’ 3-2 loss to Austria on the final matchday of the group stage, questions abound over the Dutch backline, which is supposed to be the strength of the team.

ENG vs NED: Recent Head-to-Head Results

There isn’t much recent head-to-head history between England and the Netherlands, especially in competitive fixtures. The sides have met just once in the last five years, playing to a 1-1 full-time draw in Portugal in the semifinals of the 2019 UEFA Nations League before the Dutch advance 3-1 after extra time.

The previous eight matches were all friendlies, and six of the last eight overall have finished level after 90 minutes.

England vs Netherlands Expert Picks & Predictions

Two of the last three England games have gone to the half scoreless (vs Switzerland and Slovenia) and England hasn’t scored a first-half goal since their 1-1 draw with Denmark in the second group-stage game. In fact, England’s quarterfinal win over Switzerland didn’t see a shot on target in the first 45 minutes (and just 0.50 xGF combined between the two teams).

The Netherlands were playing a similarly low-event first half against Turkey last time out until Samet Akaydin headed home a sublime, inch-perfect cross in the 35th minute. Akaydin’s goal was the only shot on target in the first 45 minutes.

With even more on the line in the semis, and both teams facing a more dangerous attack, bettors should expect a cagey first half in which both teams play scared to concede.

Given the form that we’ve seen from both sides in the tournament, I think the wrong team is favored. The Dutch have had more lows than England, but their highs have been considerably higher. They have more speed in attack and have been getting higher-quality midfield play from Xavi Simons, Tijjani Reijnders, and Jerdy Schouten than England has from Declan Rice, Kobbie Mainoo, Conor Gallagher, and Trent Alexander-Arnold.

ENG vs NED picks:

• First half under 0.5 (+142 at FanDuel)
• Netherlands to advance (+110 at bet365)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 32-15-1 (+18.72 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

The post England vs Netherlands Expert Picks, Predictions & Best Odds for Euro 2024 Semifinal appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Copa America-favorites Argentina (3-1-0) get a favorable draw in the semifinals, facing a Canada team (1-2-1) they already breezed past in the group stage, 2-0.

The Argentina vs Canada rematch is scheduled for Tuesday, July 9, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey (8:00 pm ET). The winner will face either Colombia or Uruguay in the final.

As with the first match, La Albiceleste are short favorites to win. I’ll discuss the range of odds in more detail below, but the longest odds on an Argentina full-time victory are -285, and Lio Messi and company are -550or shorter to advance to the final on Sunday, July 14.

Argentina vs Canada Predictions & Expert Picks

• First half under 0.5 (+205 at FanDuel)
• Under 2.5 goals (-110 at bet365)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 35-17-1 (+20.93 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

I am not so bold as to predict a Canada victory, but I actually haven’t loved the way Argentina have played for the majority of this tournament, at least not in the attacking half of the field. Argentina’s second-half performance against Canada was by far their best 45 minutes in the Copa. During their 1-1 draw with Ecuador, they scored on a brilliant set piece during the first half but then allowed Ecuador to control the pace of play in the second half, giving up both a penalty (which Enner Valencia put onto the post) and a last-minute equalizer, which Ecuador were full-value for.

Canada’s group stage performance was very sound defensively. New coach Jesse Marsch has clearly drilled a new defensive discipline into this group and, while that meant less attacking verve, it also meant his team didn’t concede in five of the six halves they played in the group stage, including a scoreless first half against Argentina in the tournament opener.

The loss of Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan (broken tibia) is indeed a big loss, but Buchanan was already battling injuries and was only able to come off the bench in Canada’s 1-0 win over Peru and 0-0 draw with Chile.

With speedy Jacob Shaffelburg inserted into the starting lineup for the quarterfinal clash with Venezuela, Canada started the match looking a lot more like the high-scoring group that topped CONCACAF in 2022 World Cup qualifying. They were rewarded for their efforts when Lille’s Jonathan David set up Shaffelburg for the opening goal in the 13th minute. That lead held up until a brutal defensive lapse by center back Moise Bombito and keeper Maxime Crépeau allowed Salomon Rondon to score from about 40 yards out but on the whole it was another solid defensive effort from a Canada team that was simultaneously putting a lot more effort into attack.

I don’t expect Marsch to have his team pressing in the first half as much as they did against Venezuela. The longer Tuesday’s game stays scoreless, the better it is for the Canadians.

Canada actually got the better of a low-even first half the first time these teams met (0.69 xGF to 0.67) and I expect another low-event first 45 on Tuesday night in East Rutherford.

Best Available Argentina vs Canada Odds

Since the odds opened on Saturday after Canada’s penalty win over Venezuela, they have shifted slightly in favor of the Argentines. The longest price on  Argentina to win in 90 minutes was -263, but has moved to -285 roughly ten hours from kickoff. After opening at -110 odds both ways, the over/under on 2.5 goals has shifted slightly towards the under. Bettors can now get over 2.5 at -105 at Caesars, while the over is closer to -115 or -120 at most sportsbooks.

Anyone looking to bet Argentina to advance to the final should head to BetMGM, where La Albiceleste are priced at -555 (1.18 decimal), which is significantly longer than any other book. Argentina to advance is as short as -700 at FanDuel, which not coincidentally has the longest odds on Canada advancing (+430) and winning in regular time (+1100).

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The post Argentina vs Canada Picks, Predictions, Props & Best Odds for Copa America Semifinal (July 9) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A matchup worthy of the Euro 2024 final will instead take place in the first semi on Tuesday when Spain (4-1-0) meet France (2-3-0) at Allianz Arena in Munich at 3:00 pm ET.

After winning their first four games of the tournament in regular time, Spain were forced to extra time by host Germany in the quarterfinals, where Mikel Merino played the hero with the winner in the 119th minute (2-1 AET).

France failed to score over 120 minutes of regular time and extra time against Portugal, but blasted five nearly unstoppable penalty kicks past Diogo Costa en route to a 0-0 (5-3) shootout victory.

Spain has undoubtedly looked like the better of the two teams so far in the tournament, but with at least a trio of starters out of the lineup, they are only slight favorites to advance to the Euro 2024 final.

Spain vs France Predictions & Expert Picks

• France to advance to the final (+100 at bet365)
• First half under 0.5 goals (+136 at FanDuel)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 35-17-1 (+20.93 units).
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I expect the script for Spain vs France to look similar to France’s 0-0 stalemate with Portugal. Kylian Mbappe is obviously much less than 100% and the French attack has been uncharacteristically anemic as a result. As every news outlet has reported, no French player has scored a goal from open play in the tournament. France got a penalty from Mbappe in their 1-1 draw with Poland and their other two goals (during 1-0 wins over Austria and Belgium) were both own goals off opposition defenders.

France’s defense, however, has been phenomenal. They held their opposition to just 2.18 xGA in the group stage, and (0.79 of that came from a borderline penalty call against Poland). In the round of 16, they conceded just 0.26 xGA to Belgium. Portugal were able to generate some quality scoring chances in the second half of their quarterfinal clash with France, but still finished with 0.99 xGF over the first 90 minutes.

Spain have a brilliant attack, but with midfield maestro Pedri injured, and center back Robin Le Normand and right back Dani Carvajal suspended, I expect them to play a more conservative style against France.  The players they’re bringing into the lineup aren’t much of a step down (Nacho Fernandez should take over Le Normand’s role in central defense, while Dani Olmo replaces Pedri, and  either Jesus Navas or Alejandro Grimaldo subs in for Carvajal) but it’s still a less cohesive lineup being thrust into a crucible. “Caution” will be the watchword for coach Luis de la Fuente.

Best Spain vs France Odds

The opening Spain vs France odds listed Spain at +180 to win in regular time with both a France victory and a full-time draw at +187. Most books have since shifted the odds slightly in Spain’s favor. The longest odds on a Spain regular-time win are +175 at DraftKings and bet365. The best price on a France win in regular time (+214) and a full-time draw (+194) are also at bet365.

The game-total prices have generally moved in favor of the under. The opening odds had over 2.5 goals at +162 with under 2.5 at -200. The best under price is still -200 while the over odds are as long as +170 at DraftKings.

Some books have established 1.5 O/U as the default total.

The longest odds on Spain qualifying for the final can be found at FanDuel where La Roja are -120. The best odds on France advancing are +100 at both DraftKings and bet365.

The winner of Spain vs France will face the winner of Wednesday’s England vs Netherlands match at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund. The current Euro 2024 title odds show Spain (+191) as the outright favorite, followed by England (+246), France (+274), and the Netherlands (+450).

Recent Spain vs France H2H History

The post Spain vs France Predictions, Picks & Best Odds for Euro Semifinal (July 9) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The final match of the Euro 2024 quarterfinals takes place in Berlin on Saturday when the Netherlands (2-1-1) clash with Turkey (3-0-1) at the Olympiastadion (3:00 pm ET).

The winner will face the winner of England vs Switzerland earlier in the day and, despite Turkey’s impressive performance in the tournament to date, the Netherlands vs Turkey odds heavily favor the Dutch progressing.

The longest odds on a Netherlands in regular time are -168, while Turkey is as long as +550 to win in 90 minutes.

Netherlands vs Turkey Predictions & Picks

• Draw (+315) at bet365
• Under 2.5 goals (+104) at FanDuel

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 32-15-1 (+18.72 units)
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The Netherlands were hugely impressive in their 3-0 win over Romania in the round of 16, and that was more in line with how they played in their pre-tournament friendlies, when they obliterated Iceland (4-0) and Canada (4-0) while hardly conceding a shot on target.

But their three group-stage games left a lot to be desired. They wound up third in a challenging Group D thanks to a 3-2 loss to Austria, 0-0 draw with France, and come-from-behind 2-1 win over Poland.

In short, the Dutch have been inconsistent. But I do expect their phenomenal back-line of Virgil van Dijk, Stefan de Vrij, Nathan Ake, and Denzel Dumfries to control proceedings. Romania generated just five shot attempts (one on target) and 0.24 goals over 90 minutes on Tuesday.

Turkey is stacked with attacking talent, scoring seven goals in four games so far, and their last two meetings with the Netherlands were both wildly high-scoring affairs (a 6-1 Netherlands win in September 2021 and a 4-2 Turkey win in March 2021, both during World Cup qualifying).

That’s not how Saturday’s game is going to play out, though. In their penultimate pre-tournament friendly, Turkey went to Italy and held Gli Azzurri to a 0-0 draw in which the teams combined for just 1.35 xGF. Turkey also held high-scoring Austria off the board for 66 minutes in their 2-1 round-of-16 victory. While Austria made a concerted push late in the second half and wound up with  21 shot attempts (five on target), Turkey’s defense gave up next to nothing in the first 45 minutes despite leading from the first minute on.

The Dutch aren’t going to concede in the first minute, and I don’t expect this game to resemble the open, free-flowing matchups between these teams from 2021. After the Netherlands took an early lead against Romania in the 20th minute, there wasn’t another goal in the game until the 83rd. If they do take a lead, they know how to protect it without being overly aggressive.

That said, Turkey has a considerably more potent attack than Romania, and if they do fall behind, will put a lot more pressure on Van Dijk and company.

Best Netherlands vs Turkey Odds

The best moneyline odds for Netherlands vs Turkey are found at bet365, which is offering “Enhanced Moneyline” odds on all Euro 2024 and Copa America games. The three-way price has the Netherlands at -168, Turkey at +550 and a full-time draw at +315.

When it comes to the over/under, the best odds on under 2.5 goals are +104 at FanDuel, while DraftKings and Caesars both have the over at -125.

Bettors looking to wager on Turkey to advance can get +300 at bet365 and FanDuel. DraftKings and Caesars have the best price on the Netherlands advancing at -360.

The post Netherlands vs Turkey Predictions, Expert Picks & Best Betting Odds (July 6) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

To no one’s surprise, Copa America-favorites and reigning World Cup-champion Argentina are through to the semifinals. To the surprise of many, Canada have joined them in their first-ever appearance at the Copa. 

Canada’s thrilling 5-4 penalty victory over Venezuela in the quarters set-up a group-stage rematch with Lionel Messi and company on Tuesday, July 9, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. La Albiceleste took the previous meeting 2-0 on June 20 and are heavy favorites in the Argentina vs Canada semifinal odds.

Opening Argentina vs Canada Odds

Argentina’s odds to win in regular time are sitting at a short -263 while their odds to advance to their fourth final in the last five tournaments are -625. Canada is a +925 longshot to win in regular time and +425 to advance. A full-time draw is priced at +395.

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Argentina are currently odds-on -120 favorites to win the title in the Copa America odds prior to the semis. Brazil, who meet Uruguay in a crucible of a quarterfinal matchup on Saturday, are +350 second-favorites. Canada is a +2500 longshot to win its first-ever Copa crown.

Argentina Survive Ecuador

For the first time in eight games, Argentina weren’t able to pick up the full three points in the first 90 minutes when they squared off with Ecuador on Thursday. After Lisandro Martinez finished off a superb corner play to give Argentina a 1-0 lead late in the first half, Ecuador’s Kevin Rodriguez stunned the Argentine faithful with an equalizer in the second minute of stoppage time.

But Argentina keeper Emiliano Martinez got the better of Ecuador’s Alexander Dominguez in the shootout, stopping two penalties in a 4-3 Argentina victory.

Lautaro Martinez still leads the tournament in scoring with four goals in the group stage (despite coming on as a substitute in the first two). Lionel Messi has yet to score, though did assist on Martinez’s first goal of the tournament in the 2-0 win over Canada.

Canada’s Dream Run Continues

Despite scoring just one goal in the group stage, Canada was able to advance with a 1-1-1 record. After falling to Argentina, they snuck past Peru, 1-0, and then held Chile to a 0-0 draw.

Canada had the good fortune of playing the bulk of the Peru and Chile games against ten men, but they proved their progression wasn’t just luck in the quarterfinals against Group B-winner Venezuela: Canada was the more-dangerous team throughout the first half and took a 1-0 lead in the 13th minute on a goal from Jacob Shaffelburg. That tally held up until the 65th minute when Salomón Rondón capitalized on errors from the Canadian backline and keeper Maxime Crépeau to level the score at 1-1. But Crépeau atoned for his mistake in the shootout as Canada won the skills competition 4-3.

Canada and Argentina have only met twice previously, including the 2-0 Argentina win on June 20th. The only other meeting was a 5-0 thrashing for La Albiceleste  at home in 2010.

The post Argentina vs Canada Odds for Copa America Semifinals – Opening Moneyline, Total & Odds to Advance appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Heavy favorites Colombia clash with surprise package Panama in the 2024 Copa America quarterfinals on Saturday, July 6 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

Colombia topped Group D with two wins and a draw, extending their unbeaten run to 26 matches. Panama finished second in Group C after a shocking 2-1 upset of the United States.

The Colombia vs Panama odds have Los Cafeteros as -320 favorites to advance inside 90 minutes. Panama are huge +900 underdogs with the draw priced at +400.

Colombia vs Panama Odds

Odds as of July 5 at Caesars Sportsbook. Check the Caesars promo code to bet on Colombia vs Panama.

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Colombia are massive -320 moneyline favorites, implying a 76.2% chance of victory in 90 minutes. Meanwhile, Panama’s +900 price equates to just a 10% win probability. The odds also suggest this match will be low-scoring, with Under 2.5 goals slightly favored at -105.

Colombia are -300 favorites to reach the semis, with Panama at +240. There’s no relevant head-to-head history between these nations, who haven’t met since 2007 (0-0 friendly draw).

Colombia Recent Results

Colombia capped an unbeaten Group D run with an impressive 1-1 draw against heavyweight Brazil. James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz led a dynamic attack that created the most crosses (49) and had the highest crossing accuracy (41%) of any team in the group stage.

Los Cafeteros have now gone 26 matches without a loss, with 17 wins and nine draws over that span. They’ve outscored opponents 18-5 over their last seven fixtures.

Panama Recent Results

Panama are into the Copa America quarters for the first time thanks to a massive 2-1 upset of the USA. However, their suspect defense that’s conceded 1.6 goals per game was exposed in the group stage, especially in a 3-1 loss to Uruguay.

Los Canaleros have been a high-variance team of late, losing four and winning six of their last 10 matches overall. They’ve scored in eight straight but have just one clean sheet in their last five outings.

Colombia vs Panama Projected Lineups

Colombia will be without key central midfielder Jefferson Lerma, who is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Expect the experienced Mateus Uribe to slide into Lerma’s spot in the engine room alongside defensive shield Rios and the more attack-minded Jhon Arias.

Orgulloso de este equipo que siempre buscó más y tiró para adelante. Primer objetivo cumplido; a cuartos ganando el grupo. SIGAMOS PASO A PASO . pic.twitter.com/eVaydHzP9N

— Jefferson Lerma (@jeffersonlerma) July 3, 2024

Panama, meanwhile, are still missing captain and midfield fulcrum Adalberto Carrasquilla, who serves the second of a two-match ban stemming from his red card against the USA. In his absence, Cristian Martinez and Jovani Welch will continue their central midfield partnership.

Colombia vs Panama Prediction

Colombia have too much talent and continuity for Panama over 90 minutes. Even without Lerma, Los Cafeteros’ squad is stacked with difference-makers.

Liverpool star Luis Diaz scored in the 3-0 win over Costa Rica and has been involved in three goals over his last six Colombia caps. With ex-Real Madrid man James Rodriguez conducting the attack, look for Diaz (+163) to score on Saturday against a Panama defense that’s allowed 1.6 goals per game at this Copa America.

Stop that Luis Diaz. pic.twitter.com/8XVR9AhHVA

— Stop That Football (@stopthatfooty) June 28, 2024

While Panama can score, their high-variance form and leaky defense will ultimately cost them. Colombia’s pedigree and big-game chops will prove the difference in Arizona.

It likely won’t be a rout, but Colombia (-320) will do enough to keep their unbeaten run going and punch their semifinal ticket. Backing Colombia to win and Under 2.5 goals (+195) is a nice way to extract more value out of this match.

COL vs PAN picks:

• Colombia to win (-320)
• Colombia wins and Under 2.5 goals (+195)
• Luis Diaz anytime goal scorer (+163)

The post Colombia vs Panama Odds, Predictions & Projected Lineups – Copa America Quarterfinal appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Two of the pre-tournament favorites will meet in the Euro 2024 semifinals as Spain face France on Tuesday, July 9, at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany.

Undeniably the most-impressive team in the tournament to date, the Spaniards have opened as slight favorites to advance to the Euro 2024 final.

Spain vs France Odds

The opening Spain vs France odds list Spain at +180 to win in regular time with France at +187. A full-time draw is also +187 in the opening odds. Despite Spain being a slight favorite to win in regular time, the odds to advance list both teams at -110.

The over/under heavily favors under 2.5 goals (-200) with the odds on the over at +162.

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France Perfect in Penalties Against Portugal

France’s attack stayed ice-cold in their quarterfinal matchup with Portugal. Despite 18 attempts and five shots on target, France failed to register a goal over 90 minutes plus 30 minutes of extra time. After scoring just twice in the group stage (one penalty and one own goal courtesy Austria), France scraped past Belgium 1-0 with another own goal from Jan Vertonghen with just five minutes to play.

As cold as France has been in open play, however, they were equally hot from the penalty spot in the shootout against Portugal. Theo Hernandez capped off a string of five nearly-unstoppable kicks during France’s 5-3 victory. The only miss came from Joao Felix, who run one off the left post with Portugal’s third kick.

THEO HERNANDEZ SENDS FRANCE TO THE SENI FINAL pic.twitter.com/FRXe24ONj5

— Inside Milan (@_InsideMilan) July 5, 2024

They have become the first team to advance to the Euro semifinals without a goal from open play.

More concerningly, star striker Kylian Mbappe had to be subbed off midway through extra time and looked considerably less than 100%.

Spain Impresses Versus Host Germany

The only team to win each of its first four games in the tournament, Spain continued to look like the team to beat during an extra-time win over host Germany.

Spain was the more-threatening team in the first half and were finally rewarded with a goal from Dani Olmo early in the second half. Florian Wirtz was able to draw Germany level at the tail end of the second half, a deserving reward for Germany’s concerted push over the final 30 minutes. But with the score back to level, Spain again had the better of play in the extra time and saw substitute Mikel Merino pot the winner in the 119th minute.

Spain’s defense will be decimated in the semifinals. Both Robin Le Normand and Dani Carvajal received cards that will leave them suspended for Tuesday’s match.

Barring injuries, France will have its full complement of players.

In five head-to-head meetings since 2012, France and Spain are both 2-1-2. France won the last meeting (2-1) during the 2021 UEFA Nations League.

The post Spain vs France Opening Odds – La Roja Favored to Advance to Euro 2024 Final appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

England’s quest for European glory continues on Saturday when they face a high-flying Switzerland side in the Euro 2024 quarterfinals at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Dusseldorf (noon ET, FOX).

The Three Lions have underwhelmed so far this tournament, struggling through a mediocre group stage before requiring a pair of stoppage-time heroics from Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane to overcome Slovakia 2-1 in the Round of 16. Manager Gareth Southgate is reportedly considering shifting to a three-man backline against the Swiss in an effort to unlock more of his squad’s attacking potential.

Switzerland are on the opposite trajectory, riding an eight-match unbeaten run after a confident 2-0 upset of defending champions Italy in the last 16. The Swiss have their sights set on reaching their first-ever major tournament semifinal.

Despite England’s historical dominance in this matchup – unbeaten in their last 13 meetings – the England vs Switzerland odds are much tighter than most would expect.

England vs Switzerland Odds

Odds via Bet365 as of July 5, 2024. Check out the best Bet365 review for the Euro 2024.

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England are just slight +120 favorites on the three-way moneyline, equating to a 44.1% implied win probability. Switzerland are priced at +290 underdogs (25%), with the draw at +190 (33.3%).

The Three Lions are -169 to advance to the semifinals, while Switzerland are +140 to qualify.

England won all five previous meetings with Switzerland, most recently a 2-1 friendly victory in March 2022. They’ve scored 2+ goals in four straight against the Swiss. The over 2.5 goals is priced at +152 at Bet365.

If Southgate does make the anticipated shift to a 3-5-2 formation, here’s how England and Switzerland could line up:

England vs Switzerland Projected Lineups

England’s prospective shift in shape will aim to get more out of their wealth of attacking talent. Trent Alexander-Arnold, who was shoehorned into midfield in the group stage, could also be an option at wing-back.

With Marc Guehi suspended, Konsa will likely come in at center-back. Luke Shaw is still battling injury, opening the door for Saka on the left.

Switzerland welcome Widmer back from suspension to boost their options on the right flank. Injury scares for Xhaka and Freuler have subsided, meaning coach Murat Yakin can roll out a first-choice XI.

England vs Switzerland Prediction

Bellingham’s bicycle kick to tie the game against Slovakia, and his cheeky “who else?” celebration really brought some swagger back to the England team. That dramatic late victory could prove the turning point for a Three Lions squad that had been lethargic through three-plus matches.

With momentum and belief surging, England’s elite individual talent should start to click. The tactical switch is also promising, as it’s a setup that has served Southgate well in the past and should unlock more final-third production from Kane, Saka, Foden, and company.

Quarter final time. Let’s go pic.twitter.com/SsHz0YN0bR

— Harry Kane (@HKane) July 5, 2024

Switzerland’s well-organized defense will provide stiff resistance, but their lack of match-winners in the attacking third could be their downfall. While an impressive team overall, the Swiss don’t have singular game-changers like Bellingham and Kane who can conjure moments of magic.

England’s struggles earlier in the tournament have made their odds longer than they should be at this stage, especially against an inferior opponent. There’s value on them to win in 90 minutes at +127.

With England’s offense coming alive and Switzerland able to score, betting on both teams to score at -139 is also a decent choice. England’s defense has been allowing 0.75 expected goals per game.

ENG-SUI Best Bets:

• England moneyline (+120)
• Both teams to score (+110)
• Jude Bellingham to be carded (+550 at DraftKings)

The post England vs Switzerland Odds, Predictions & Projected Lineups for Euro 2024 Quarterfinal (July 6) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Two teams that have looked less than compelling during Euro 2024 meet in the quarterfinals on Friday, July 5, when Portugal (2-1-1) face France (2-2-0) at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg with a spot in the semifinals awaiting the winner.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 pm ET and the winner will face either Spain or Germany in the semis on Tuesday, July 9.

France is a slight favorite to advance, priced at +141 to win in regular time and -145 to qualify for the semifinals. Portugal’s odds to win in regular time are sitting at +264 while their odds to advance are +124. A full-time draw is +202.

Portugal vs France Picks & Predictions

• First half under 0.5 (+150) at FanDuel and Caesars Sportsbook
• France to advance (-145) at DraftKings

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 30-13-1 (+18.53 units)
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Both teams were less than convincing in their round of 16 victories. France was locked in a low-event, 0-0 tie with Belgium until the 85th minute when a Jan Vertonghen own-goal handed Les Bleus the win. Portugal, meanwhile, couldn’t solve Jan Oblak and the Slovenian defense during a nil-nil draw that lasted through 30 minutes of extra time, but a brilliant performance from keeper Diogo Costa in the penalty shootout allowed the Portuguese to advance.

That was the second straight game Portugal failed to score, having also been blanked 2-0 by Georgia in the final game of the group stage. The dry spell was unexpected after Portugal led UEFA in goals during qualifying (36 goals for) and put five in the back of the next during group-stage wins over Czechia (2-1) and Turkiye (3-0).

Portugal was unlucky not to tally against Georgia (ranked 74th in the world), generating 1.55 xGF over the course of 90 minutes. But the majority of their prime scoring opportunities came late in the game when they were already trailing 2-0 and Georgia was sitting back. Cristiano Ronaldo and company were then limited to 0.99 xGF over 90 minutes by Slovenia (ranked 57th in the world), and the all-time leading Euro goalscorer showed signs of fallibility, sending multiple free kicks from dangerous positions sailing over the bar or into the wall and missing a penalty in extra time.

While France’s lack of offense (three goals in four games) has been a concern, they certainly deserved to progress. During the group stage, they generated 5.83 xGF over 270 minutes while allowing just 2.18 xGA, despite finishing with just a +1 goal difference (2 GF, 1 GA). That trend continued in the round of 16 against Belgium, when they generated 1.36 GF compared to a miniscule 0.26 xGF for the Belgians. The shots attempts ended up 20-6 in favor of France, though Les Bleus only put two on target.

Midfielder Antoine Rabiot picked up another yellow card and is suspended for the Portugal game. Real Madrid’s Eduardo Camavinga is expected to take his place in the starting XI.

On the whole, there has been more to like about France’s performance so far than Portugal’s. They have controlled the play/been the better team in all four of their matches to date, including a nil-nil draw with a very good Netherlands team.

Portugal dominated a weak qualifying group that didn’t include any other teams ranked higher than 45th in the world, and that luck continued in the group stage, lumped with Czechia (34th), Turkiye (42nd), and Georgia. The last time Portugal played a top-15 team was a pre-tournament friendly against Croatia (#9), when they suffered a 2-1 defeat at home. Prior to that was a 1-0 loss to Morocco (#11) in the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup.

Making matters worse, Portugal is just 1-2-11 against France in the last 14 head-to-head matchups.

Portugal’s defense has looked suspect over the last 180 minutes and Mbappe/Griezmann/Thuram will eventually puncture it, while I don’t expect the same from the Portuguese attack against a French defense that has yet to conceded from open play.

Best Portugal vs France Odds

The best three-way moneyline odds are available via bet365’s “Enhanced Moneyline” where a France win is +141, a Portugal victory is +264, and the draw is +202.

The best prices on both over 2.5 goals and under 2.5 goals are at FanDuel, where the over is +142 and the unde ris -174.

If you are looking to bet France to advance, you will want to capitalize on the -145 odds at DraftKings. Anyone targeting Portugal to advance should head to FanDuel where the line is sitting at +130.

The post France vs Portugal Predictions, Picks, Best Odds & Betting Trends (July 5) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

We may bear witness to the passing of the torch from one generational player to another in Saturday’s Euro 2024 afternoon quarterfinal.

Cristiano Ronaldo and sixth-ranked Portugal face a stiff challenge in its Euro 2024 quarterfinal against second-ranked France and the sure-to-be masked Kylian Mbappe. The Portugal/France quarterfinal kicks off at 3 pm ET on Saturday at the Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.

Portugal vs France Odds

France are favorites to win in regular time at +145 and are -142 to advance to the semifinals. Portugal is getting +230 to win in 90 minutes, but are just a slight plus-money dog to advance at +116. Odds for a Portugal/France draw after 90 minutes is +190.

Saturday’s over/under is leaning towards a modest amount of goals. The O/U of 2.5 goals has the under at -174 and the over at +142

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France heads into the Euro 2024 quarterfinals with odds to win the tournament at +250, the third-best of all remaining teams. At +900, Portugal owns the sixth-best Euro 2024 odds.

Only by lifting the championship trophy could either team match their previous best at the Euros. France holds two titles to their name, coming in 1984 and 2000, but Portugal’s is more recent, coming in 2016 and at the expense of France, no less.

However, France owns the recent head-to-head record against Portugal, albeit slightly. Going back over their last five matches, France is 2-2-1 with a +1 goal differential.

Portugal Results in 2024

*Opponents’ FIFA rankings at the time of each match. **Portugal defeated Slovenia on penalty kicks, 3-0.

Portugal has largely been in control of each of their Euro 2024 matches, which will be the final European Championship for talismanic striker Cristiano Ronaldo.

A stoppage-time winner was necessary in the opening win against Czechia, despite Portugal holding a 73% possession advantage. A clinical 3-0 victory over Turkiye guaranteed a place in the knockout round for the Seleção, which explains why eight starters were rested for Portugal’s final group stage match, a shock 2-0 loss to 74th-ranked Georgia.

Portugal’s performance in their Round of 16 match against Slovenia was somewhat similar to the Czechia game, except with no goals and the looming specter of penalties threatening an either/or result.

Ultimately, this match will be remembered for two events: Ronaldo’s Euro swansong tearfully interrupted by his poor penalty kick in AET; and the heroics of goalkeeper Diogo Costa, who stopped all three Slovenian PKs en route to a 3-0 win on penalties.

Similar to their group stage play, Portugal’s five pre-tournament friendlies were all decisive in their scorelines, either for or against the Seleção. Losses to Slovenia (2-0) and Croatia (2-1) were sandwiched between wins over Sweden (5-2), Finland (4-2), and Ireland (3-0).

Of their five goals scored at Euro 2024, one each came from Francisco Conceição, Bernardo Silva, and Bruno Fernandes, while two were own goals.

France Results in 2024

*Opponents’ FIFA rankings at the time of each match.

The opening victory for France at Euro 2024 was as pyrrhic as they come. Yes, they were able to see off a difficult Austria side 1-0, but the match essentially came to its conclusion when star striker Kylian Mbappe broke his nose on the shoulder of Austrian defender Kevin Danso.

France would next be without Mbappe for an evenly matched 0-0 draw against the Netherlands, before the striker would return to score against Poland, closing out the group stage with a 1-1 draw.

With or without Mbappe, France’s experience thus far has been a series of fits and starts, displaying periods of offensive dominance without the goals to show for it. However, their defense has been resolute, posting two clean sheets in the group stage and now a third in their 1-0 Round of 16 win over Belgium.

It was a tight, cagey affair, with France’s defense front holding court until a late winner was scored.

It’s not that France played poorly, in this knockout match or in the group stage, but penalties and own goals typically only come few and far between. For their sake, it’s a good thing that defense typically wins championships.

France’s pre-tournament friendlies were also largely rudimentary, but not without an early speedbump.

A 2-0 home loss to Germany in March saw Les Bleus go down a goal after just seven seconds, leaving them chasing the Germans for eighty-nine more minutes. Confidence for the Euros was then built behind wins over Chile (3-2) and Luxembourg (3-0), before a final 0-0 draw against Canada.

Goal scoring at the Euros has come at a premium for France. Across four matches, they’ve only compiled three goals in total, two of which were own goals and the other a penalty courtesy of Kylian Mbappe.

Portugal vs France Predictions & Picks

Despite a matchup of teams boasting two of the most prolific goalscorers playing today, I do not see a bloated scoreline in the cards for Portugal vs France.

First, this is the knockout round of a soccer tournament. You won’t see a lot of games with totals going over three goals unless there’s a sizable talent discrepancy between the two squads. Call it a battle of wills between two trepidatious opponents. And second, both squads have their own respective histories that suggest there will not be a lot of goals.

Portugal’s run to the 2016 Euro Championship is a perfect example. Three of their four knockout games were won after 90 minutes, either in AET or penalties. Yes, that was eight years ago, but Monday’s shootout win over Slovenia was like a sequel to the ’16 title team. They may not be scoring, but Portugal won’t let their opponents score, either.

For France, there’s no need to look past the current tournament. Les Bleus finished second in Group D by winning once and drawing twice, with a +1 GD despite scoring just one goal. Monday’s win over Belgium was more of the same, but with a Belgian own goal to spice things up. France are defensively stingy and arguably unlucky on offense, if you want to call three goals in four games against an xG of 6.94 “unlucky.”

There’s a chance this game will open up, but that only happens if a goal is scored early. To be honest, I don’t see it happening: combined they’ve scored a single goal in the first half in open play.

Both teams will come out of the tunnel cagey but cautious, and the goal scoring (if any) will be left to late in the match. It’ll be a crazy finish to a chess match of a game.

Portugal vs France picks:

• Draw after 90 minutes (+190)
• Under 2.5 goals (-174)
• France to advance (-142)

The post Portugal vs France Euro 2024 Quarterfinal Odds, Predictions & Props to Target appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The quarterfinals of Euro 2024 kick off with a dream matchup between tournament co-favorites Spain (4-0-0) and host nation Germany (3-1-0) at MHP Arena in Stuttgart on Friday at 12:00 pm ET.

Spain has been the class of the competition so far, recording four consecutive wins without conceding a goal until their 4-1 round of 16 victory against Georgia. Germany topped Group A and eliminated Denmark 2-0 to reach this stage, but has not been quite as dominant as their Spanish counterparts.

With the match taking place on German soil, the Spain vs Germany odds are nearly even. The Spaniards are slim +170 favorites, while the Germans are +175 underdogs. The draw is priced at +210.

Spain vs Germany Odds

Odds as of July 4th, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best sports betting apps for Spain vs Germany. 

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Spain is listed at +170 on the three-way moneyline, implying a 37.04% chance of victory in regular time. Germany’s +175 odds translate to a 36.36% implied probability, while the +210 draw carries a 32.26% chance of occurring.

Spain remains unbeaten in its last four meetings with Germany, most recently playing to a 1-1 draw in the group stage of the 2022 World Cup. La Roja’s last loss to Die Mannschaft came all the way back at Euro 1988.

The projected lineups for both sides are as follows:

Spain vs Germany Projected Lineups

Spain has scored a tournament-high nine goals, but the scoring has been balanced with seven different players finding the back of the net. Midfielder Fabian Ruiz leads the way with two goals and two assists. 16-year-old winger Lamine Yamal has impressed with his playmaking abilities, notching two assists to go along with 11 shots.

SPAIN TAKES THE LEAD

Lamine Yamal sets up Fabián Ruiz with a beautiful assist pic.twitter.com/V1wmDSr5bK

— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 30, 2024

For Germany, 21-year-old Jamal Musiala has been the star. He’s tied for the Golden Boot lead with three goals on just seven shots. Kai Havertz has added two goals, both from the penalty spot, while midfielders Joshua Kimmich and Ilkay Gundogan have been brilliant in progressing the attack.

While the offenses get the headlines, both defenses have been stout. Spain conceded its only goal of the tournament on an own goal against Georgia, while Germany has allowed just two goals (both to Scotland in a 5-1 victory). Manuel Neuer and Unai Simon are two of the best goalkeepers in the world.

Spain’s Road to the Quarterfinals

Spain cruised through the group stage with three straight wins and clean sheets against 2018 World Cup finalist Croatia, rival Italy, and Albania. They conceded their first goal of the tournament on an own goal against Georgia in the Round of 16 but still advanced comfortably.

Germany’s Road to the Quarterfinals

Germany opened the tournament with a statement 5-1 win over Scotland. They secured first place in Group A with a workmanlike 2-0 victory against Hungary and a late 1-1 draw vs Switzerland. The hosts then eliminated a solid Denmark side 2-0 in the Round of 16 to set up this marquee matchup with Spain.

Spain vs Germany Prediction

This has the makings of an instant classic between two of the best teams in the world. Both are loaded with young, dynamic attacking talent mixed with veteran know-how. It will likely come down to which midfield can control the tempo and create the best chances for their forwards.

Spain vs. Germany

A rematch of the Euro 2008 final. pic.twitter.com/zjFGZB2ua6

— B/R Football (@brfootball) June 30, 2024

Spain has looked like the slightly better team throughout the tournament, and players like Pedri, Rodri and Fabian Ruiz should be able to cope with Germany’s intense pressing. However, it’s impossible to count out a German side featuring the likes of Musiala, Havertz, Kimmich and Gundogan, especially with the home crowd behind them.

In the end, this match feels destined for extra time and possibly penalties. The betting value lies with the draw at +210 in regular time. For those feeling bold, Germany advancing at -108 could be worth a shot given the home-field advantage if the game does reach extra time or a shootout.

Spain vs Germany Picks:

• Draw (+210)
• Germany to Advance (-108)

The post Spain vs Germany Predictions, Picks, Odds & Projected Lineups for Euro 2024 Quarterfinals appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A dream tournament for Venezuela (3-0-0, +4 GD) continues on Friday as La Vinotinto get a favorable draw against Canada (1-1-1, +0 GD) in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Copa America. Venezuela and Canada will square off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, on Friday (8:00 pm CT/9:00 pm ET).

By finishing first in Group B, Venezuela avoided a clash with reigning Copa and World Cup-champion Argentina. That said, the Venezuela vs Canada odds are fairly narrow as oddsmakers likely give the Canadians a semi-home-field advantage.

Venezuela vs Canada Odds

Venezuela are +155 favorites to win in regular time (just a 39.22% implied win probability) and -125 to advance to the semifinals. Canada’s odds to secure a win in 90 minutes are sitting at +200 (33.33%) while their odds to advance are +100. A 90-minute draw is currently +210 (32.26%).

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Canada and Venezuela have only played twice in their history, both were friendlies and both ended in a draw. The most-recent was a 1-1 score in Maracaibo in 2010. They also played to a 2-2 in Maracaibo in 2007.

Neither is considered a threat to win the tournament. Venezuela is listed at +2575, on average, in the latest Copa America odds with Canada back at +4075.

Canada Recent Results

It’s clear that under new coach Jesse Marsch, Canada is more focused on defense than it was under the free-flowing reign of John Herdman. Canada has only scored one goal in five games since Marsch took over in May, but they’ve also kept clean sheets in three of their last four. That includes a 1-0 win over Peru and a pair of scoreless draws with France (in France) and Chile.

After giving up three goals in a devastating 3-2 loss to Jamaica on home soil back in November 2023, longtime starter Milan Borjan has lost his net to Maxime Crépeau, who has started each of Canada’s last six matches.

Unfortunately, the Canadians got devastating injury news on Monday when Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan broke his tibia during practice. Buchanan appeared in each of the first three games (two as a sub) and was a mainstay in Canada’s midfield throughout their highly successful 2022 World Cup qualifying campaign. His estimated transfer value of $7.7 million is the fourth-highest of any Canadian player.

Venezuela Recent Results

Since finishing deadlast in CONMEBOL qualifying for the 2022 World Cup (3-1-14, -20 goal differential), Venezuela has shown marked improvement. They are currently fourth in qualifying for 2026, one-third of the way through, and have a 4-4-2 record over their last ten while playing stiff competition. Seven of their last ten opponents have been ranked 31st or higher by FIFA. They managed to earn a point away at Brazil in Oct. 2023 with a 1-1 draw.

While they were fortunate to be playing a man up for the final 68 minutes against Ecuador in their first match at the Copa America, they still deserve credit for coming back from a goal down to secure the full three points. They then showcased their resilient defense in a 1-0 win over Mexico before outclassing Jamaica 3-0.

Star striker Salomon Rondon has a pair of goals, as does right winger Eduard Bello. Famalicao winger Jhonder Cadiz leveled the score at 1-1 in the win over Ecuador while Rondon’s substitute, Eric Ramirez, tallied last against Jamaica.

Venezuela vs Canada Picks & Predictions

With Canada playing Marsch’s defensive style against a Venezuelan group that’s kept back-to-back clean sheets, I really like the value on a scoreless draw at +650 (which has just a 13.33% implied probability). Generally, Venezuela is all too happy to play low-scoring, defensive battles. Prior to the Copa, only one of their last seven competitive fixtures went over 2.5 goals, and four stayed under 1.5.

In addition, Canadian keeper Maxime Crépeau has been absolutely sensational throughout the tournament. His team has conceded 4.80 xGA, yet he’s allowed just a pair of (borderline unstoppable) goals to world-champion Argentina. Venezuelan number-one Rafael Romo has been similarly outstanding, allowing just one goal when a teammate hung him out to dry with a poor clearance off a free kick against Ecuador. He made a victory-clinching save off penalty late in Venezuela’s 1-0 win over Mexico.

On the whole, Venezuela has been the stronger team, and Canada is still in the beginnings of the Marsch era. There are still kinks to be worked out.

VEN vs CAN picks:

• Under 0.5 (+650) at DraftKings
• Venezuela to advance (-125)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 29-12-1 (+18.37 units). All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

The post Venezuela vs Canada Odds, Predictions & Best Bets for Copa America Knockout Stage (July 5) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

After breezing through the group stage, Argentina (3-0-0, +5 GD) continue their quest for a second straight Copa America title against Ecuador in the quarterfinals on Thursday, July 4, at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX, at 8:00 pm CT/9:00 pm ET.

Argentina have dominated the recent head-to-head against their South American rivals, going undefeated in the last seven with six victories. They are heavily favored to make it seven of eight in Thursday’s Argentina vs Ecuador odds.

JUMP TO THE PICKS

Argentina vs Ecuador Odds

Argentina head into the quarterfinals as -208 favorites to win in regular time and massive -500 favorites to advance to the Copa semifinals. Ecuador is a +760 longshot to win in 90 minutes and +350 to qualify for the next round. A full-time draw is currently priced at +325.

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Argentina are also the outright favorite to win the tournament, currently +128 on average in the 2024 Copa America odds. Ecuador is a +2800 bet to win its first Copa championship.

As mentioned, Argentina has dominated the recent head-to-head with Ecuador, winning six of seven matches since 2017 and outscoring La Tricolor by an absurd 16-3 in the process.

Argentina vs Ecuador Recent H2H History

Three of those last seven matches came at neutral sites, including a 1-0 Argentina win in a pre-tournament friendly on July 9, 2024. Argentina controlled 65% of possession in that friendly and generated 11 shots (four on target) while conceding just one shot attempt (none on target) to Ecuador.

With three wins in three during the group stage, Argentina improved its record over the past ten games to 9-0-1, with the only blemish a stunning 2-0 defeat at home to Uruguay during World Cup qualifying.

Argentina Last 10 Matches

Though he’s come off the bench in two of three Copa games, Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez has been the start of the tournament so far, scoring four of Argentina’s five goals (including each of the last four) as they breezed past Canada (2-0), Chile (1-0), and Peru (2-0).

Emi Martinez hasn’t been forced into action too often, but did make a couple of outstanding saves against Chile while the match was still knotted at zeroes.

Lionel Messi sat out the final group-stage game against Peru due to a mild leg injury but he’s expected to be in the starting 11 on Thursday. He has one assist

Ecuador Last 10 Matches

Including a 1-1-1 record in the Copa group stage, Ecuador is 5-3-2 in its past ten games. They haven’t beaten a team ranked higher than 40th in the world in that span, though (Chile), and three of the five wins came against teams outside of the top 75 (Honduras, Bolivia, Guatemala).

Ecuador is currently a respectable fifth in CONMEBOL’S 2026 World Cup qualifying with a 3-2-1 record after six games and a +2 goal differential (5 GF, 3 GA). But they have yet to face Brazil and still have away matches at Uruguay and Colombia to come.

Ecuador’s group-stage goals came from Brighton forward Jeremy Sarmiento (when his team was down to ten men against Venezuela), 17-year-old midfielder Kendry Paez, and Cercle Brugge striker Alan Minda.

Ecuador also benefited from an own goal by Jamaica midfielder Kasey Palmer.

Star striker Enner Valencia’s absence from that list is only mildly concerning. He was sent off after just 22 minutes in the tournament-opener against Venezuela and was then suspended against Jamaica.

Ecuador generated 3.88 xGF during the group stage while allowing 3.65 xGA. Those numbers would have been skewed more heavily towards Ecuador if they hadn’t played over 70 minutes of 10-vs-11 against Venezuela.

 Argentina vs Ecuador Prediction & Picks

Argentina hasn’t conceded a goal to date in the tournament and I don’t expect the first to come from an Ecuador team that they’ve absolutely manhandled over the last seven years. The 34-year-old Valencia is showing his age and was basically invisible in Ecuador’s 0-0 draw against Mexico. It’s true that Ecuador appeared to be playing for the draw, which was all they needed to advance, but bettors can expect a similarly defensive-minded game plan against Argentina.

Argentina’s own attack hasn’t been all too sharp, and has been very slow to get going so far. All five of their goals came in the second half. I don’t think that’s entirely accidental. They have appeared content to control the ball and wear down the opposing midfield/defense over the first 45 minutes before employing a much more ferocious gameplan in the final 45 minutes.

Ecuador has a rock-solid defense that should hold up for a half.

ARG vs ECU Picks:

• Ecuador under 0.5 goals (-150) at ESPN Bet – 1.50 UNITS
• No goal before 33:00 minutes (-120) at bet365 – 2.0 UNITS

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 29-12-1 (+18.37 units). All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

The post Argentina vs Ecuador Predictions, Picks & Best Odds – Copa America (July 4) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 2024 Copa America group stage is finished and the quarterfinal bracket is set. On the top half, defending Copa and World Cup-champion Argentina takes on Ecuador, while Group B-winner Venezuela faces Canada. In the bottom half, Colombia faces Panama, while Uruguay and Brazil meet in a heavyweight battle.

The table below lists the opening odds for all four games, including the three-way moneyline and the odds to advance to the semifinals.

Copa America Knockout Stage Odds

Argentina is the biggest favorite of the quarterfinals, listed at -223 to win in regular time and -500 to advance to the semifinals. The narrowest odds come from the Venezuela vs Canada game where Venezuela is +160 to win in 90 minutes and -125 to advance, while Canada is +190 in regular time and even-money to qualify for the semis.

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Argentina remains the favorite to win the title in the 2024 Copa America odds, sitting at +120, followed by Brazil at +300, Uruguay at +550, and Colombia at +650. After that top flight of teams comes Ecuador (+2200), Venezuela (+2500), and Canada (+3500). Panama (+8000) is the longest shot on the board of the eight remaining teams.

Argentina Perfect in Group Stage

The defending champs and top-ranked team in the world looked the part in Group A play. Argentina went a perfect 3-0-0 with a +5 goal differential. Emi Martinez had three clean sheets, stopping a total of seven shots across 270-plus minutes. Argentina started with a 2-0 win over Canada and then posted a very late 1-0 win over Chile and finished with a 2-0 victory over Peru with a handful of usual starters resting.

Despite coming off the bench in the first two games, Lautaro Martinez scored four of his team’s five goals. Julian Alvarez had the fifth.

Uruguay and Venezuela also went 3-0-0 in the group stage. Uruguay outclassed Panama (3-1) and Bolivia (5-0) before a narrow 1-0 win over host USA, which eliminated the Americans from the tournament.

Venezuela managed a 3-0-0 record in a hotly contested group with Ecuador (2-1), Mexico (1-0), and Jamaica (3-1).

Down in Group D, Colombia won the quartet with a 2-1-0 record (7 PTS) finishing two clear of Brazil (1-2-0, 5 PTS). Brazil rebounded from a tournament-opening 0-0 draw with Costa Rica with a resounding 4-1 win over Paraguay before playing Colombia to a 1-1 draw.

Brazil opened the scoring against Colombia to take over first-place in the live standings – courtesy of a majestic Raphinia free kick – but Daniel Munoz equalized just before halftime to conclude the scoring. Brazil’s second-place finish in the group sets up a brutal quarterfinal matchup with Uruguay.

Since moving to a group stage/knockout stage format in 1975, Uruguay and Brazil have been the most-successful teams with five Copa titles apiece.

Argentina and Chile have each won two, while Paraguay, Colombia, and Peru have won one each.

The post Copa America Knockout Stage Odds – Lines for All Quarterfinal Games Including Brazil vs Panama & Uruguay vs Colombia appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.