New 2024 Presidential Election Odds Show Harris Favored Over Trump
By Sascha Paruk in Politics News
Updated: August 12, 2024 at 12:10 pm EDTPublished:
- The updated 2024 presidential election odds favor Harris/Walz over Trump/Vance
- Trump had been the betting favorite for the entire calendar year up to this point
- See the latest odds to win the 2024 election for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
A betting market that Donald Trump had been dominating for the better part of the last six months has been turned on its head in the last few weeks. Since incumbent Joe Biden dropped his re-election campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, the latter has been on a one-way trip to the top of the board, recently surpassing former President Trump as the betting favorite to win the White House on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Updated 2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -125 |
| Donald Trump | +100 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr | +5000 |
Harris, who was still as long as +110 at this time last week, continued to rise up the board after naming Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running-mate.
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Odds as of August 11 at bet365. Check out the top political betting sites.
Trump’s Odds Sagging
In the wake of the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, Trump’s odds to win a second, non-consecutive term in the White House moved to a startling short -278, on average. At that point, aging incumbent Joe Biden was still in the race and looked intent on seeing through his re-election bid, for better or worse.
But since Biden’s stunning-yet-inevitable announcement that he was dropping his re-election campaign – and endorsing VP Harris in one fell swoop – Trump’s odds have been on a one-way train in the opposite direction. The day after Biden’s announcement, Trump faded to -200 in the 2024 election odds and, when all the Democratic ducks lined up behind Harris, he faded further to -188.
Over the last two weeks, he’s moved all the way to plus-money, currently sitting at +100.
Harris Rise Supported by Polling Numbers
Kamala Harris’ rise up the odds board isn’t just a response to betting handle. The most-up-to-date polling numbers show the current VEEP with a lead both nationally and in most of the key battleground states that will decide the 2024 presidential election.
Nate Silver’s most-recent polling averages showed Harris with a 2.5% lead nationally and at least a 1.3% lead in all of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
If she carries those three states, she’s all but guaranteed of an Electoral College victory. The interactive map at 270towin has 226 Electoral College votes solidly blue; adding Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin equals exactly 270 with Arizona (11 votes), Georgia (16 votes), and Nevada (6 votes) still in neutral territory.
Trump holds a slight lead in Georgia (46.0% to 45.1%) but Harris is ahead out west in both Arizona (44.6% to 44.0%) and Nevada (44.6% to 42.9%) in Silver’s latest polls.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
