UFC Fight Night: Taira vs Royval Predictions, Odds & Picks

• UFC Fight Night returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday (October 12)
• Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira headlines the flyweight main event
• Read below for UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Taira odds, picks and predictions

The UFC returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, October 12th, 2024 for UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira. The main card kicks off at 7pm ET on ESPN+, headlined by a pivotal flyweight clash between #1 ranked Brandon Royval and rising star Tatsuro Taira.

Here are my UFC Fight Night predictions, including the main event Tatsuro Taira vs Brandon Royval, and the co-main event Jun Yong Park vs Brad Tavares.

UFC Fight Night Odds

The odds for this UFC Fight Night card show several notable favorites. Grant Dawson is the biggest favorite at -425 against Rafa Garcia (+330), while the tightest matchup is Chidi Njokuani (-170) vs Jared Gooden (+142).

Most fights are expected to go the distance, with the over heavily favored in four out of six bouts. Alhassan-Fremd fight is projected to be the shortest, with under 1.5 rounds priced at +124.

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UFC Fight Night odds as of October. 11, at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’ve already registered at DK, check out ESPN Bet for a UFC Fight Night promo. 

How to Watch

• Main Card: 7pm ET on ESPN+
• Prelims: 4pm ET on ESPN+

Tatsuro Taira vs Brandon Royval Prediction

22-year-old Tatsuro Taira (16-0) has been flawless in his MMA career, most recently crushing veteran Alex Perez in just two rounds. The Japanese grappling ace now faces his stiffest test in #1 contender Brandon “Raw Dawg” Royval (16-7).

Taira’s path to victory is clear – get this fight to the mat. His takedowns and submissions are next-level, and Royval’s meager 40% takedown defense plays right into his wheelhouse. If Taira gets top control, it’s likely game over for Raw Dawg.

This is why he's a title contender 🫡

Watch @TatsuroTaira in the #UFCVegas98 main event this weekend!

[ LIVE Saturday on @ESPNPlus at 7pmET/4pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/WPT7EgkEh0

— UFC (@ufc) October 10, 2024

I trust Taira’s grappling ability to be the difference-maker. He’s a special talent with finishing instincts, and Royval has wilted against lesser submission artists before. Taira may have to weather some early adversity, but expect him to find the takedown and latch onto a fight-ending choke.

Royval has a shot with his frenetic, high-volume striking. But I’m not betting on him consistently defending Taira’s explosive shots for five rounds. Expect an early submission from the undefeated grappling ace.

• Pick: Tatsuro Taira via Submission (-110)

Co-Main Event: Jun Yong Park vs Brad Tavares Prediciton

Father Time is undefeated, and he may be catching up to 36-year-old Brad Tavares. The Hawaiian’s trademark durability has waned, suffering two brutal KO losses in his last three outings.

South Korea’s “Iron Turtle” Jun Yong Park brings relentless pressure and a deep gas tank. Park effortlessly blends striking and grappling to break opponents over 15 minutes. If he weathers Tavares’ early storm, it’s his fight to lose.

Park’s -180 moneyline is actually a bargain for a fighter this reliable. Bet on the younger, hungrier Park to outwork the fading Tavares wherever this fight goes. A late finish isn’t out of the question if Tavares fades down the stretch.

• Pick: Jun Yong Park (-180)

Grant Dawson vs Rafa Garcia Prediction

You don’t need superpowers to predict how this lightweight tilt will go. Grant Dawson is an overwhelming -500 favorite for a reason – his wrestling is going to manhandle Rafa Garcia.

Most Confident Pick for #UFCVegas98

Grant Dawson by Dec/Sub#GamblingX pic.twitter.com/uUnRPGElIY

— DWill (@TheRealDWill__) October 9, 2024

Dawson averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes and has vicious gnp to go with it. Garcia simply doesn’t have the defensive grappling chops to stop him. “KGD” will plant Garcia on the canvas and pound away until he nabs a submission.

There’s not much value on Dawson’s chunky moneyline, but a prop on Dawson to win Inside the Distance at -150 is well worth a bet. He’s a near-lock to ragdoll Garcia for a statement-making finish.

• Pick: Grant Dawson wins Inside the Distance (-150)

Upset Prediction: Pat Sabatini (+110) vs Jonathan Pearce

If you’re looking for a live underdog, Pat Sabatini might your guy. The submission wizard is a handful on the mat for anyone at 145 lbs, including wrestling stalwart Jonathan Pearce.

Pearce’s grinding clinch game could play right into Sabatini’s crafty guard. All it takes is one slip-up on top from Pearce and Sabatini will pounce with a fight-ending sub.

At +110, Sabatini’s payout potential is too good to ignore. Throw some beer money on the underrated grappler to score the upset and pad your bankroll.

• Pick: Pat Sabatini (+110)