Valero Texas Open Odds, Predictions & H2H Picks

• The 2024 Valero Texas Open from TPC San Antonio runs from April 4 to 7
• World #2 Rory McIlroy is a +900 favorite to win against a mediocre field
• See the Valero Texas Open odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s stop on the PGA Tour

The last stop on the PGA Tour before the 2024 Masters is the Valero Texas Open, which will once again be played at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, as it has been since 2010.

Rory McIlroy headlines a solid but not spectacular field for the 2024 edition. He and young Swede Ludvig Åberg are listed head-and-shoulders above the field in the Valero Texas Open odds to win.

After McIlroy (+900) and Åberg (+1200) come Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama at +2000 with Max Homa (+2200) rounding out the top-five favorites.

Defending champion Corey Conners is the sixth-favorite at +2500.

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Conners Playing Well Ahead of Texas Open Title Defense

Corey Conners has made the cut in 15 straight PGA events dating back to last season and though he’s yet to record a top-ten finish this year, he had three top tens in his final seven starts of 2023. He’s coming off a T13 at THE PLAYERS in his last start. Before that, he finished T18 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He hasn’t finished worse than T57 this season.

Conners is currently 40th on tour in strokes gained and was 22nd during the 2022-23 PGA season.

Conners only has two wins on the PGA Tour and both came in the Texas Open. In addition to his 2023 victory, he also claimed the crown in 2019. That said, I’m not looking seriously at him in the tournament outrights at +2500 (3.8% implied win probability). But I do expect him to play well again at a course he clearly likes. Conners was also T35 (-5) in 2022 and T14 in 2021 (-6).

Alex Noren Regaining His Form

Though he’s on the wrong side of 40, Alex Noren is relocating the form that had him in the top-20 of the OWGR from 2016 to 2018. The 41-year-old Swede has started the 2024 season with a string of seven straight made cuts and has finished top 20 in his last three events: T9 at the Cognizant Classic, T19 at THE PLAYERS, and T11 at last weeks’ Houston Open. He currently ranks eighth on tour in strokes gained.

Noren has only played the Texas Open once, but it was an encouraging T15 last year at -7.

This week, Noren has been matched up with Collin Morikawa in the head-to-head odds for the Texas Open, with the Swede listed as a modest -130 favorite.

After a T5 in his first start of the season at The Sentry, Morikawa’s season has taken a downward turn. He’s missed two cuts in his last five events and is coming off a T45 at THE PLAYERS. This will also be the 27-year-old’s first ever start at the Texas Open.

Morikawa is just 69th in strokes gained during the 2024 PGA season.

2024 Valero Texas Open Predictions

• Conners top Canadian finisher (+110) over Pendrith, Silverman, Sloan, and Svensson
• Noren (-130) over Morikawa

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 PGA Tour betting record:

• H2H picks: 3-1 (+1.48 units)
• Top-five picks: 1-0 (+1.40 units)
• Top-ten picks: 0-4 (-4.00 units)
• Top-20 picks: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
• Top-30 picks: 0-3 (-3.00 units)