NFL Picks for Week 12: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions

• Looking for some help in betting the remaining 12 games in Week 12 of the 2024-25 NFL season?
• My SBD formula and I are offering our moneyline picks for each game in Week 12
• See our Week 12 NFL picks below

Week 12 of the 2024-25 NFL season got underway Thursday with our first snow game of the year. Though it doesn’t sound like we’re getting any more snow games this week, there are still another 12 games across Sunday and Monday. If you’re looking for some help in betting any of those 12 games, my SBD formula and I have offered our Week 12 NFL picks below.

I went 1-1 on my upset picks last week, winning 0.76 units, while my SBD formula went 1-0, winning 1.52 units. For what it’s worth, it did also have the Saints winning, which would have been worth an extra 1.05 units. They were the favorites in their matchup last week when this article was written, though. If you managed to capture all of the above, you would have profited 3.33 units. But that’s enough gloating. We’ve got more money to make. Here’s both of our NFL picks for Week 12!

Week 12 NFL Picks

Between my SBD formula and I, we have three upset picks for Week 12. If you were hoping to see picks for every game, you have received them. My SBD formula has favorites winning every game other than the Cardinals beating the Seahawks (they are a small underdog at the time of writing this article), and Chargers beating the Ravens on MNF.

Going a step further, though, my SBD formula does have some tight margins of victory for Week 12. Here are the favorites it has winning their respective games by less than three points:

1. Dolphins to beat the Patriots by 1.8 points
2. Packers to beat the 49ers by 1 point

It also only has the Chargers beating the Ravens (one of its two predicted upsets this week) by 1.7 points. If anything changes with spreads/predictions, I will communicate that through my Twitter/X.

Depending how quickly you get to this article, the odds associated with the moneyline picks above may be stale. Be sure you check out our NFL odds page to shop for the best price before you place your bets!

If you wanted more than just moneyline NFL picks for Week 12, we also have you covered. Zach Reger has published his Week 12 NFL picks against the spread, and John Hyslop has shared the Week 12 NFL player props he likes best. If you want some justification for my picks above, keep scrolling!

Bears Over Vikings

It appears firing OC Shane Waldron has brought positive results for the Bears. In less than a week under new OC Thomas Brown, the Bears posted their third-highest yardage total of the season.

For extra context, the only two games they put up more yards came against the Colts and Panthers – two bad defenses. They just posted 391 yards against a good Packers defense, and it was actually the second-most yards Green Bay had given up all season. The performance was far better than what we saw the week prior, as Chicago only totaled 142 yards against the Patriots in Week 10, which was the second game of the season where they didn’t manage to record at least 150 total yards.

What I think was especially encouraging was their commitment to the ground game and what they were able to produce. They’ll need that type of effort in Week 12 when they take on a Vikings defense that allows the second-fewest yards per rushing attempt, because Caleb Williams is not going to be able to shoulder the offense in this one.

I do think Chicago will get just enough from their offense, but the main reason I like the Bears to pull off the upset is their defense against Sam Darnold. The former third-overall pick is having a career-year, but he hasn’t handled pressure overly well this season. I think the Bears defense has also been motivated by the coaching changes, and think they can bring some pressure.

Chicago has allowed the seventh-fewest points in the NFL and rank 14th in yards allowed. What may be even more important here is that they are capable of generating turnovers. They have forced 17 turnovers this season, nine of which were interceptions. I think they’re going to give Darnold trouble all day, and the team who is able to run the ball better and control the clock will win.

I think there’s a 50% chance that’s the Bears. So, the +162 odds have a lot of value, in my opinion.

• Pick: Bears moneyline (+162 at Caesars)

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Patriots Over Dolphins

Similar to my Buccaneers pick from a couple weeks ago, I want to be transparent that I do not think the Patriots have a better than 50% chance to win this game. However, I do feel their chances are between 40-45%, which is much better than the implied probability of 24.4% that comes from the +310 odds. So, call this another value play.

Typically, if two teams have played each other already this season, I would go into analyzing that performance from both sides. However, when the Patriots and Dolphins met back in Week 5, it was Jacoby Brissett versus Tyler Huntley. So, I’m going to throw that one out.

Instead, I’m focusing on what I have seen from these two teams in the last month. Tua Tagovailoa has been back under center in each of Miami’s last four games, and the offense (of course) has been much better. However, they still haven’t shown me the explosion we saw early last season. The Dolphins only have nine pass plays of 20+ yards from Weeks 8-11, which is tied for 23rd. I think Mike McDaniel is trying to protect his QB, and Tyreek Hill has not been his usual self this season.

On the other hand, I can see the confidence building in rookie Drake Maye. He had to leave the Jets game early with a concussion, but came back the next week and mounted a nice comeback against the Titans, which was a game they probably should have won. The win over the Bears in Week 10 is a little tough to celebrate, as I think Chicago had checked out. But I would argue Maye just had his best game of the season against the Rams last week, as the Patriots only lost by six.

I think we’re going to see Maye outplay Tua on Sunday, and put the Patriots in a position to win this game down the stretch.

• Pick: Patriots moneyline (+310 at BetMGM)

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