With six teams on bye, there are fewer games left on the NFL Week 14 schedule to pick through in order to find legs for NFL parlays. But I have spent a lot of time this week diving deep into the 12 games remaining across Sunday and Monday to find the best NFL parlay picks for Week 14. What I have come up with is two NFL parlays: (1) a longshot parlay with 73-1 odds, and (2) a higher-probability parlay with +124 odds.

I hit three of the five legs in my longshot parlay last week, which would have made a decent profit betting them as singles, but the parlay itself did lose, unfortunately. I was also finally letdown by Cooper Kupp in my higher-probability parlay, as he was the one leg that failed to cash. But I feel confident these two Week 14 parlays are putting money in our pockets.

Longshot NFL Parlay for Week 14

My Week 14 longshot NFL parlay has five legs and is best played at FanDuel for +7349 odds. Both of DraftKings and ESPN Bet were close with their odds, but bet365 was missing Jonnu Smith props, Caesars wouldn’t let me bet any alternate lines with Aidan O’Connell, and BetMGM doesn’t have the proper milestones. A $5 bet on this parlay would potentially win $367.49 and return $372.49.

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The first leg of my longshot NFL parlay is Aidan O’Connell for 250+ passing yards. The last time I bet on O’Connell, he left the game with an injury after 14 snaps. So, here’s to hoping he at least plays this whole game. If he does, I like him to surpass 250 yards through the air. O’Connell is fresh off a 340-yard performance against a tough Chiefs defense, and now sees a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards in the NFL. I also like Tampa Bay’s offense to score some points and put Las Vegas in a negative game script early in this one.

Next up is Jonnu Smith for 70+ receiving yards. The Dolphins tight end has been posting big numbers over the last three weeks, and appears to be one of the centerpieces of their offense now. Smith has led the team in targets in each of the last two games (11 in each), and was tied for the team-high the week prior. In those last three games, he has recorded 113, 87, and 101 receiving yards, respectively. I appreciate that the Jets have allowed the second-fewest passing yards in the NFL, but they’re playing Week 14 without their star corner Sauce Gardner. The result will be having to give their corners some help with the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, leaving the middle of the field for Jonnu to go to work.

The third leg of this parlay is the Bears moneyline. I went into detail on why I liked Chicago to win this game in my Week 14 NFL picks.

The next leg is from the same game as above, as I’m going with Jauan Jennings for 70+ receiving yards. I’m actually happy that Jennings has had two off games, especially when you consider the circumstances, because it has resulted in great odds for this bet. Those circumstances were catching passes from Brandon Allen one game, and the other was a game where Brock Purdy only attempted 18 passes because he couldn’t handle the ball in the snow. It won’t be snowing in San Francisco Sunday afternoon, and Jennings will return to his usual form when Brandon Aiyuk is out of the lineup – Purdy’s favorite target. Jennings saw 11 targets in both games following Aiyuk’s injury, and turned them into 93 and 91-yard performances, respectively. With no CMC to lean on, and a Bears secondary that’s 22nd in net yards allowed per pass attempt, I like Jennings to have another good game in Week 14.

The final leg of this parlay is a James Cook anytime touchdown. You can read my analysis on Cook in my Week 14 NFL TD picks.

Higher-Probability Week 14 NFL Parlay

My Week 14 higher-probability NFL parlay contains three legs and comes in at +124 odds at FanDuel as well. Be sure to check back with bet365, though, as they had better odds on two of the legs and were just missing Brock Bowers props at the time of writing this.

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The first leg of this parlay is Will Levis for 175+ passing yards. If you tailed my parlays last week, you know Levis let me down. But as I have said before, I am a man who believes in second chances, and I am willing to extend one to the Titans young QB. It helps that he has reached this milestone in each of his last four games since returning from injury, and sees a Jaguars defense that allows the most passing yards in the NFL, as well as the most net yards per pass attempt, in Week 14.

Next is an alternate spread with the Eagles -6.5. If you wanted a slightly better payout on this parlay, I would say this is the leg you can play with. I don’t think there’s a team playing better football right now than the Eagles. They have won eight straight games and have some very impressive wins in this streak. I think the most impressive was last week’s win in Baltimore, when they ran for 166 yards against the league’s best run defense. The Panthers are a bad football team, and I don’t put too much stock into their back-to-back three-point losses to the Chiefs and Buccaneers.

The final leg of this NFL parlay is Brock Bowers for 50+ receiving yards. The rookie tight end has cleared this milestone in eight of his 12 games, but has achieved the feat in all three of Aidan O’Connell’s starts. In those three games, Bowers has recorded 71, 93, and 140 yards, respectively. He also has double-digit targets in each of those games, and saw 14 in two of them. As I mentioned above, I like the Raiders to face a negative game script against the Bucs in Week 14. But even if they don’t, Bowers is the focal point of this offense.

The post Free Week 14 NFL Parlay Picks: Get 73-1 Odds with This 5-Leg Parlay appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Week 14 has already treated us to one of the best games of the year, but it still has 12 more to come across Sunday and Monday. If you’re looking for some help in betting the rest of Week 14, or just want your biases/leans confirmed, I have gathered my NFL picks as well as my SBD formula’s computer picks for each of the remaining games.

I went 1-0 on my upset picks from last week, winning 1.43 units. My SBD formula went 3-1 on its picks, winning 2.93 units. (The extra pick was the result of the Seahawks turning into underdogs. I tweeted it out Sunday AM.) Here’s how we, or at least I, plan to keep the money coming in for Week 14!

Week 14 NFL Picks

I have two upset picks for Week 14, but my formula is predicting zero upsets this week. It does, however, have a couple very close margins of victory. Before I go any further, though, I want to urge the importance of line shopping before you lock in any of the picks above. The moneyline odds I have included were the best at the time of writing this. You can find the best odds available at any time using our NFL odds page.

Though my SBD formula has all favorites winning in Week 14, here are some games where it’s predicting a close game (and you could potentially take a swing):

1. Titans to beat the Jaguars by 3.1 points
2. Dolphins to beat the Jets by 1.6 points
3. Cardinals to beat the Seahawks by 1.2 points
4. 49ers to beat the Bears by 1.7 points
5. Chiefs to beat the Chargers by 0.3 points

You’ll notice two of the above are upsets I am betting, which makes me feel even better about the pick!

If you wanted more than moneyline picks, SBD has Week 14 covered from many angles. You can check out Zach Reger’s Week 14 NFL picks against the spread, and the Week 14 NFL props John Hyslop likes the best. But you can also keep reading here if you’d like my analysis on each of my three picks above.

Browns Over Steelers

This is the only one of my three NFL picks this week where I don’t feel the team I am betting has a better than 50% chance to win the game. However, I think they have a much better chance to win this game than the moneyline odds suggest. The +260 odds FanDuel is offering on the Browns to win implies a 27.8% probability. I think Cleveland’s probability of winning this game is around 45%.

There are three main reasons I think this game is close to a coin-flip:

1. The Browns just beat the Steelers two weeks ago
2. Cleveland’s offense is a capable unit without Deshaun Watson under center
3. Pittsburgh lacks the ability to pull away from teams who aren’t horrible

Furthering the first point above, Cleveland just picked up a win when hosting Pittsburgh in Week 12. The Browns won 24-19 while committing three turnovers.

On the second point, the Jameis Winston experience has had its ups and downs, as is to be expected with Winston, but even the downs have been better than what we saw Deshaun Watson do with this offense. Cleveland has now scored 24+ points in three of the five games Winston has started, which is a milestone they never achieved in their first seven games with Watson – their game-high for points was 18. What’s even more impressive about that stat is the defenses he has done it against. He scored 29 points against the Ravens (sort of impressive), 24 against the Steelers, and 32 against the Broncos.

On the final point, Pittsburgh has yet to show me they can put a decent team away. They just win close games. We saw them beat up on the Raiders and Jets, two of the worst teams in the league, who both suffer from awful QB play, while six of their other seven wins have been by one score, two of them being by less than three points. I think we’ll see Pittsburgh struggle to put the Browns away, as long as Jameis doesn’t throw too many pick-sixes, giving Winston an opportunity to win this game late.

The uncertainty around George Pickens’ status (at the time of writing this article anyways) could also be a major factor. Pickens is the Steelers’ best offensive weapon, and I don’t think they would be able to move the ball as well without him.

• Pick: Browns moneyline (+260 at FanDuel)

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Bears Over 49ers

I truly thought this game would be a pick’em after what we have seen from the 49ers over the past three weeks. I appreciate that Brock Purdy did not play in their 28-point loss to the Packers, but he did play in their home loss to the Seahawks as well as the 25-point loss to the Bills.

One player the 49ers will be without is Christian McCaffrey, whose season is now over after injuring his knee in the snow last week. The 49ers offense, which has largely relied upon a good running game, will now have to turn to rookie Isaac Guerendo, as Jordan Mason will also not be available. Guerendo has great size and speed, but we aren’t really sure how comfortable he is in Kyle Shanahan’s offense yet – at least not on an every-down basis. So, this offense might still be out of sorts as their rookie running back gets comfortable.

It’s also sounding like both Trent Williams and Nick Bosa are doubtful, which are big blows to both sides of the ball for San Francisco.

On the other side of this game, we have a Bears team that has now lost six games in a row, but have at least shown a lot of fight over the last three weeks since their offensive coordinator was fired. Their past three games have all been against divisional opponents, which you could argue make up three of the top four teams in the NFC right now, and each loss was by three points or less.

Now they head into Week 14 with their head coach just having been fired after their inexcusable clock mismanagement that cost them a chance to send their Thanksgiving game with the Lions to overtime. I think we’re going to see more effort out of this Bears team than we have since their demoralizing last-second loss to the Commanders in Week 8.

Chicago’s offense will still be a bit of a rollercoaster as Caleb Williams continues to learn how to play QB in the pros, not to mention their offensive line needs some work, but their defense has a lot of talent and I think will return to being a feared unit. I like them to give Brock Purdy hell all afternoon.

• Pick: Bears moneyline (+170 at ESPN Bet)

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Chargers Over Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs played arguably two of the four worst teams in the league over the past two weeks, and failed to beat either of them by more than three points. They should have lost their Black Friday game with the Raiders, but got incredibly lucky that the Raiders suffered some sort of miscommunication that led to an unexpected snap that bounced off their QB’s shoulders for a fumble.

Prior to those two games, the Chiefs lost to the Bills by nine points, beat the Broncos by two points thanks to a blocked field goal as time expired, and needed overtime to beat the Buccaneers. It’s not irrational to say the Chiefs are only a few really lucky breaks away from being 7-5. If you want to go back further, you could say they were also on the verge of losing Weeks 1 and 2 to the Ravens and Bengals, respectively.

This has been, in my opinion, the least impressive Chiefs team we have seen with Patrick Mahomes under center. However, they continue to just get wins. They have just simply gotten it done. But I’m not sure they can in Week 14 against the Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh’s squad has given up the fewest points in the NFL, and they are constantly winning the turnover battle. The Chargers have only turned the ball over six times, which is fewest in the league, and they have forced 17 turnovers. In what I suspect will be a pretty slow-paced, defensive battle, I give the nod to LA’s defense over Kansas City’s.

After a bit of a quiet game last week from Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense last week, in what was their first game without JK Dobbins, I think they’ll have a better answer Sunday night.

• Pick: Chargers moneyline (+180 at DraftKings)

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The post NFL Picks for Week 14: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Sportsbooks have released NFL touchdown odds for all 13 games of Week 14 in the 2024-25 NFL season. Every sportsbook will tell you NFL TD props are by far the most popular among their bettors, but sustaining profitability in this betting market takes a lot of time and effort towards research – plus, some luck. I have taken the time to go through all of the NFL touchdown odds for Week 14, along with the pertinent player and team stats, to come up with my favorite NFL TD picks for Week 14.

Last week’s TD picks were ugly, as I went 4-8 to lose 1.32 units. The losses were frustrating, as I watched Jahmyr Gibbs fumble near the goal line, Jonnu Smith have a pass go through his hands near the goal line and into Tyreek Hill’s for a touchdown, and DeAndre Hopkins see a few targets in the endzone, but unable to come down with any of them. If any of those three go the other way, it would have been a winning week.

But that’s in the past now and my focus is on making some money in Week 14 with these nine NFL TD props.

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 14

I am betting nine players to score a touchdown in Week 14. Each of the above are a half-unit bet, except for David Montgomery, James Cook, and Bucky Irving, who are each full-unit bets.

Though you are only seeing NFL anytime TD scorer picks in this article, SBD does offer a lot more player prop coverage. You can find all the passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders for each player in Week 14 on our NFL props page.

I have provided some brief analysis below on why I like each of the nine players listed above to score a TD in Week 14.

David Montgomery

Week 13 marked the first time this season that neither David Montgomery nor Jahmyr Gibbs found the endzone. I don’t think we see that happen again the rest of the season.

Montgomery has scored a touchdown in nine of 12 games this season, and 20 of his 26 games as a Detroit Lion. That’s a touchdown in 77% of his games with the Lions. He has also been held out of the endzone in back-to-back games just once over the past two seasons. So, I like him to respond well after not scoring a touchdown last week.

He will also be looking to make up for not scoring a TD in the first game between the Lions and Packers (his opponent in Week 14), which came back in early November. Montgomery did, however, out-touch and out-gain his backfield mate both on the ground and through the air in that contest.

In a crucial game for NFC North standings, I like the Lions to lean on their strengths, which is their running game. We have also seen that when it’s time for Detroit to close out a game, Montgomery is the RB they lean on. I suspect that’s what we’ll be seeing on Thursday.

• Pick: David Montgomery Anytime TD (-145 at FanDuel)

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Bucky Irving

One of the most electric players in the NFL over the last few weeks has been Bucky Irving. The rookie RB has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, as well as five of the last seven. But last week was a massive step forward for Irving, as he was given 25 of the 36 running back rushing attempts. He touched the ball 28 times and recorded 185 yards from scrimmage. Both of these were season-highs. His previous high for touches came in Week 12, when he saw 18 touches, which he turned into 152 yards from scrimmage – his previous high in that category as well.

The Buccaneers are clearly starting to favor Irving over Rachaad White in their backfield, and it sounds like 28 touches may not be the ceiling for Irving. After last week’s big performance, Head Coach Todd Bowles said, “the more comfortable he gets, the more you can give him, the more he can do.”

Irving’s next opportunity will come against the Raiders, who have allowed the fifth-most points in the NFL. Las Vegas has been decent against the run, only allowing 4.3 yards per carry, but they have also given up 11 touchdowns on the ground. I like them to give up at least one more this Sunday!

• Pick: Bucky Irving Anytime TD (+100 at bet365)

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Kenneth Gainwell

This is by far the biggest longshot anytime TD bet I have placed this season. I might be getting a little too cute with this one, but I don’t see any value in betting either Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts at their very short odds to score a TD against the lowly Panthers.

This is basically a bet that the Eagles will be up big in this game. They’re favored by 12 points at the time of writing this, and I suspect that spread will continue to grow to 14+ before kickoff.

Carolina allows the most points in the NFL and the second-most yards. They rank 27th in yards allowed per rushing attempt and have surrendered 18 touchdowns on the ground this season. Barring injury, Saquon Barkley is going to score a touchdown in this game. There’s a good chance Hurts get in on the action as well, but that’s a little more dependent on the Panthers defense being able to drag Barkley down near the goal line.

After all the starters have had their fun, and the Eagles have a three-score (or more) lead, I think Philadelphia will do the smart thing and preserve Barkley. The next man up in their backfield is Kenneth Gainwell. We saw the 25-year-old get five carries in Philadelphia’s blowout of the Rams, and he took one of them for a score, which is his only TD this season.

I like Gainwell to see a good amount of work in the second half of this game, and think the Eagles will continue to steamroll the Panthers even with their backups in the game.

• Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD (+850 at DraftKings)

Bijan Robinson

Let me start this pick off by clarifying that I am well aware how good the Vikings have been against the run this season. Minnesota only allows 3.7 yards per rushing attempt (3rd) and have only given up five touchdowns on the ground. The reason I am betting Bijan Robinson to score a touchdown in Week 14 is because he is used in a variety of ways, not just as an old school RB who takes handoffs up the middle.

Only three running backs have seen more targets than Robinson this season, and only two have caught more passes. The second-year pro has seen at least six targets in three of his last five games, and he has caught all but one pass in that timeframe.

Following a horrendous four-interception outing from Kirk Cousins last week, where he was trying to push the ball downfield while under pressure, I expect the Falcons to try and make things easier on their aging QB against an arguably better defense in Week 14. With the pressure the Vikings defense is going to bring, I think we’ll see plenty of opportunities for Robinson in the pass game, and I like the explosive back to make good with the ball in his hands.

Robinson has scored a touchdown in five of his last seven games, and I like him to add another TD in Week 14.

• Pick: Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-105 at bet365)

De’Von Achane

While I was very tempted to come back to Jonnu Smith for a second straight week, I couldn’t say no to the -138 odds for De’Von Achane to score a TD against the Jets in Week 14.

With Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup, Achane has been a touchdown monster. Achane has scored at least one touchdown in seven of eight games with Tagovailoa in the lineup, and has a total of nine TDs in those eight games. The Dolphins’ low-risk, quick passing game since Tua’s return from his latest concussion has greatly benefitted Achane. Six of his nine TDs this season have been receiving touchdowns, and he is coming off a season-high nine targets last week.

Achane faces a beatdown Jets team on Sunday, who have given up 17 rushing touchdowns but only nine through the air. The way Miami utilizes Achane in the passing game is similar to a handoff, though. The Jets defense could be without star corner Sauce Gardner, and I would like this bet even more if they were. If Gardner can’t go, I think the Jets would need to give their corners a little extra help against the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, leaving more space for Achane around the line of scrimmage.

• Pick: De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-138 at bet365)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

At the time of writing this, there was a 52% chance of rain showers during the Jaguars vs Titans game, but it didn’t sound to be concerning rain that could have a dramatic effect on the passing game. If the weather report gets worse, you may want to consider laying off this pick.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight games, and he had two against the Commanders last week. While Calvin Ridley has been Will Levis’ favorite target, NWI has been the big-play threat. Three of his last four TDs have been at least 27 yards, with the longest being 98 yards.

Westbrook-Ikhine will see the Jaguars in Week 14, who are giving up more net yards per pass attempt than any other team. They have also allowed 24 touchdowns through the air, which is second-most in the NFL. Jacksonville’s defense has been crushed by big plays this season, as they have given up seven plays of 50+ yards (second-most), and ten plays of 40+ yards (fourth-most).

I’ll take the big-play threat to score another touchdown against a defense that can’t stop giving up big plays.

• Pick: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Anytime TD (+200 at BetMGM)

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James Cook

James Cook leads the Bills with 12 touchdowns this season, which is also tied for fourth-most in the NFL. He has at least one TD in eight of 11 games, which includes a touchdown in each of his last three.

Cook is preparing to face a pretty lousy Rams defense in Week 14, who ranks 21st in points allowed and 25th in total yards allowed. LA is surrendering 4.6 yards per carry and the sixth-most net yards per pass attempt. Buffalo should have no problem moving the ball against this Rams defense, and Cook has been the Bills’ go-to threat in the red zone. Cook has received 35 of Buffalo’s 119 red zone looks this season.

With all that in mind, I can’t believe we’re getting -115 odds on Cook to score a touchdown in this one. I figured it would be closer to -150.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (-115 at Caesars)

Xavier Worthy

If you told me at the beginning of the season that Xavier Worthy would be leading the Chiefs in touchdowns entering Week 14, I would have assumed he’d be the NFL OROY favorite. But that’s not the case, because Worthy hasn’t been that good, just as the Chiefs offense hasn’t been that good this season.

Worthy’s six touchdowns is one more than Kareem Hunt for the team-high, but the Chiefs have also seen 13 different players score touchdowns for them this season. Kansas City has needed to rely on contributions from so many different players this year partially due to injuries, but I also think it has to do with them being older and slower than we have seen before.

DeAndre Hopkins is 32 years old and Travis Kelce is 35. They have also been forced to lean on a 29-year-old Hunt in the backfield, who is averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Getting Isiah Pacheco back definitely helps, but I think the long week will have Andy Reid looking to try and inject a little more explosion into this offense ahead of a tough matchup with a good Chargers defense, especially after a sluggish performance against the Raiders, where they only managed 19 points and failed to close out the game with their offense.

Their most explosive player is without a doubt Worthy. The rookie has been getting more looks lately, as he has seen at least five touches in each of his last three games. It’s worth noting that he scored one of Kansas City’s two touchdowns in their first matchup with the Chargers back in Week 4. I think Reid knows they’ll need some creativity and explosion to put up points against an LA defense that has allowed the fewest in the league.

• Pick: Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+340 at FanDuel)

Tee Higgins

As I wrote last week, Tee Higgins has been a touchdown-scorer when he’s been on the field for the Bengals this season. Higgins has scored a TD in each of his last three games, and four of his last five.

What I find even more encouraging is that Higgins is seeing more targets per game this season than Ja’Marr Chase – the former averages 9.7 targets per game, while the latter averages 9.1. Higgins also averages more red zone looks per game with 1.71, compared to Chase’s 1.67.

In Week 14, Cincinnati will face a Cowboys defense that allows the fourth-most points and seventh-most yards in the NFL. Dallas has given up 26+ points in six of their last seven, with the Giants being the outlier who only scored 20.

I think we’ll be seeing a good amount of points from the Bengals offense on MNF, and I like Higgins to score at least one of those touchdowns.

• Pick: Tee Higgins Anytime TD (+135 at DraftKings)

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The post NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 14: Predictions for TD Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

On top of watching the (disastrous) football games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, I have been studying all of the NFL betting markets for Sunday and Monday of Week 13, with the intent of putting together the perfect NFL parlays. The result this week is a five-leg, 135-1 odds longshot NFL parlay, along with a +190 higher-probability parlay for Week 13.

I only hit two of the five legs of my longshot parlay last week, but you still would have been profitable betting them as singles. For what it’s worth CJ Stroud came up three yards shy of his milestone, which seemed like a lock when they got the ball back late in the fourth quarter while trailing. The Chiefs choke-job robbed me of the higher-probability parlay too. In case you’re not picking up on the tone, I’m frustrated by last week’s results.

But I’m directing that frustration towards some more good reads, with hopefully some better luck, in this Week 13 edition of my NFL parlay picks. Here are the two parlays I’m playing for this weekend!

Longshot NFL Parlay for Week 13

My longshot NFL parlay for Week 13 has five legs and comes out to +13503 odds at bet365. These odds are far better than what you’ll get at other sportsbooks – DraftKings was the next-best at 113-1 odds. A $5 bet on this parlay would potentially profit $675.15 and return $680.15.

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I’m starting this longshot NFL parlay off with Will Levis for 250+ passing yards. Since returning from injury, Levis has looked like a different QB. In his first five games this season (pre-injury), he only surpassed 250 passing yards once. But in his three games since returning, he has gone over this milestone in two of three. The one game he came up short was against a very good Chargers pass defense in his first game back. In Week 13, Levis will be taking on a Commanders defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards. But that’s a bit of a phony stat, as they rank 19th in net yards allowed per pass attempt. They have just seen the fewest passes attempted against them, and that’s partly because they have played many of the league’s worst QBs. Joe Burrow posted 324 against them, Lamar Jackson threw for 323, Baker Mayfield recorded 289, and Cooper Rush even passed for 247 last week. Levis can definitely hit 250 in this one.

The next leg of the parlay is a Bucky Irving anytime TD, which I went into deeper in my Week 13 NFL TD picks. But the short version is that he’s been fantastic since given more opportunities and he plays an awful Panthers defense in Week 13.

The third leg is Brian Thomas Jr for 70+ receiving yards. BTJ is averaging 62.6 receiving yards per game in his rookie season, and has only gone for 70+ in five of 11 games. However, the rookie had been playing alongside Christian Kirk, who was averaging just under six targets per game, for eight of those games. Kirk is done for the season now, though, and BTJ’s only real competition for targets is Evan Engram. We haven’t really seen any big games from Thomas Jr since Kirk went down because the first came against a very good Eagles secondary, and the next two were quarterbacked by Mac Jones – though, he did manage 82 yards in Jacksonville’s last game. With Trevor Lawrence back under center, I like Thomas Jr to see plenty of targets, and replicate his 86-yard performance in Week 4 against the same Texans he takes on this Sunday.

It’s so insane that Brian Thomas Jr. can create this much separation on horizontally breaking routes.

He’s absolutely terrifying as a vertical threat,,, AND he can do this? pic.twitter.com/L5tngxM7DR

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 18, 2024

Next up is an alternate spread of Chargers -2.5. I haven’t moved this spread much, as the standard line is LA -1 when they take on the Falcons in Week 13. But I’m pushing it as far as I can before hitting the significant number of three. I think this game is going to go pretty similar to the way Atlanta’s game against the Broncos went, because I feel the Chargers and Broncos are quite similar. LA is very good in coverage, can get after the passer, and prides themselves on stopping the run. No team has allowed fewer points than the Chargers this season. The key here is being able to get Kirk Cousins out of his timing and rhythm, which is something I think Jim Harbaugh’s squad is very capable of accomplishing. Cousins is not the QB who is going to navigate the pocket very well, or get outside of it, and make plays on the go. Looking to the other units, even without JK Dobbins in the lineup, Justin Herbert should have no issue putting up points against this bad Falcons defense. (Not to mention, I think Kimani Vidal needs to be given more opportunities.)

The final leg of this longshot NFL parlay comes on Monday Night Football, as I’m taking Devaughn Vele for 50+ receiving yards. Vele has only gone for 50+ yards in three of eight games this season, but he has accomplished this feat in each of his last two games. The rookie WR is fresh off an 80-yard performance, in which he was targeted nine times, only one fewer than Courtland Sutton for the team-high. Vele’s recent success lines up with his rookie QB’s breakout. With Bo Nix looking comfortable, it seems there are going to be plenty of targets to be had in Denver, with Sutton and Vele as the two most popular pass-catchers. Plus, hearing Sean Payton compare Vele to Marques Colston, arguably the greatest receiver he ever coached, is extremely high praise! I like Vele to continue to see plenty of quality targets as long as Nix is playing well, and I like the opportunity in front of him in Week 13, when he’ll take on a Browns defense that allows the seventh-most net yards per pass attempt.

Higher-Probability Week 13 NFL Parlay

My higher-probability NFL parlay for Week 13 contains three legs and is best played at DraftKings, where you can get +190 odds. You can get very close at bet365 with +186 odds as well.

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The first leg of this parlay is Drake Maye for 200+ passing yards. He has thrown for 200+ in five of seven starts this season, with one of the outliers being the game he left with a concussion after 20 snaps, and the other came against the Bears, where he only had to attempt 25 passes (his next low on the season is 33 attempts) because New England was playing with a very positive game script. The rookie QB is averaging 205.1 passing yards per game, but that number jumps to 235.5 if you remove the Jets game where he got hurt. Maye will take on the Colts in Week 13, and Indianapolis has not defended the pass well this season. The Colts allow the eighth-most net yards per pass attempt. The other encouraging note is that Anthony Richardson has been moving the ball well since being reinstated as the starter. So, I don’t foresee New England facing another positive game script.

The second leg is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline. The Bucs take on the Panthers in Week 13, and just about every game left on their schedule is a must-win. But this is a Tampa Bay team that I kind of like. They have very narrow losses to the Ravens, Falcons (x2), Chiefs, and 49ers. They’re the only team who has been able to beat the Lions this season, and are one of two to beat the Eagles. This is a tested team who is fighting for their playoff lives. I don’t see them losing to arguably the worst team in the NFL this week, as I don’t really buy into what we saw out of Carolina last week against the Chiefs. Kansas City is just playing down to their opponents right now. The Bucs should put up plenty of points and overwhelm the Panthers.

The final leg of the parlay is a very common one for me: Cooper Kupp for 50+ receiving yards. I feel I have written the same thing about Kupp for the last handful of weeks now, but as I say each week, if sportsbooks are going to continue to offer him at this price, I have to continue taking it. Kupp has posted 50+ yards in six of seven, with the outlier being the game he left before halftime – he still recorded 37 yards in limited time. He has seen double-digit targets in each of the last two games, and now gets a Saints secondary who allowed Jameis Winston to throw for 395 yards, and all of Jerry Jeudy (142 yards), David Njoku, and Elijah Moore to record at least 66 receiving yards. Kupp might get his 50 in the first half.

The post Free Week 13 NFL Parlay Picks: Get 135-1 Odds with This 5-Leg Parlay appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Week 13 of the 2024-25 NFL season got started on Thanksgiving with three games, and had another to follow on Black Friday. But with no teams on bye this week, we still have 12 games to be played across Sunday and Monday of Week 13. If you’re unsure how to bet the remaining games, or just want your biases confirmed, I have rounded up my NFL picks and put them alongside my SBD formula’s picks for Week 13 as well, focusing on the underdogs we feel can pull off the upset.

My SBD formula and I are both coming off a rough last week picking upsets, where we each went 0-2 and combined for an 0-4 week. But I feel good about the response coming with the NFL picks for Week 13 below!

Week 13 NFL Picks

I only have one upset pick for Week 13, but my SBD formula has three. However, the one underdog I am betting on the moneyline is also one of my formula’s picks. So, there are three underdogs above to bet. But before you bet any of the teams above, be sure to use our NFL odds page to find the best odds at the time you are reading this – the odds included in the table were from when I wrote this.

If you were hoping to get picks for every game of Week 13, you technically have. My SBD formula has favorites winning every other game across Sunday and Monday. To be clear on a couple games, the Seahawks and Chargers were the favorites in their respective matchups at the time of writing this. Should either of those two teams become underdogs between now and kickoff, that would be another upset pick for my SBD formula.

I also want to disclose that my SBD formula doesn’t really have many tight margins of victory this week. The closest margin of victory it has is the Seahawks beating the Jets by 3.8 points. All of the underdogs it likes to win above are predicted to win their respective games by at least 5.1 points. I typically share some deeper dives into my formula’s predictions on Twitter/X if you’re interested.

If you want more than just moneyline picks for Week 13 in the NFL, you can also check out Zach Reger’s NFL picks against the spread for Week 13, and John Hyslop’s Week 13 NFL props to bet. If you want some justification for my NFL upset pick above, keep scrolling!

Eagles Over Ravens

I view this Philadelphia vs Baltimore matchup as a true 50/50 game. I would argue the Eagles are the hottest, most confident team in football right now, and I believe they’re the team playing better football right now. As a result, I believe this game should be a pick’em, with Philadelphia’s hot streak nullifying the homefield advantage Baltimore has. With that in mind, I’ll happily take the +143 odds Caesars is offering on the Eagles to win.

There seems to be a formula for beating the Ravens this season: (1) neutralize Derrick Henry early on, (2) make Baltimore play with urgency by putting up some first quarter/half points, and (3) keep Lamar Jackson in the pocket. Those three things are much easier said than done, but I believe Vic Fangio’s defense can get this done.

Philadelphia has allowed the fewest yards in the NFL, and rank sixth in points allowed. Fangio’s specialty is shutting down his opponent’s rushing attack, and I think he has the bulk in the middle with Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter to slow down Henry, with the athleticism and scheme/coaching to keep Lamar’s legs in check as well.

Looking to Philadelphia’s secondary, it’s hard to find many units who have improved more year-over-year. Even if Darius Slay doesn’t suit up, I still like Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean (with the help of their great safeties) to hold up against Baltimore’s receivers. So, I expect them to really sell out to stop the run early, and then potentially put an extra spy on Lamar late in the game to keep him in the pocket.

Putting up those points early is something I think the Eagles are going to be capable of as well. The Ravens have allowed the second-most pass yards in the NFL, but they are the best defense against the run. I believe the dual threat of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts running the ball, along with arguably the best offensive line in football, will allow them to have more success than most against this stout run defense.

I’m also confident in Hurts putting the ball in the air in the case Baltimore is shutting down the run. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith won’t have any trouble getting open against this Ravens secondary, and Baltimore’s pass-rush has been average at best. So, I don’t foresee the Eagles having much trouble putting up points either.

Give me the Eagles to get a big win on the road!

• Pick: Eagles moneyline (+143 at Caesars)

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The post NFL Picks for Week 13: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Even though NFL TD props are by far the most popular prop, according to any sportsbook you ask, betting TDs successfully can be quite difficult, and involves a fair amount of research. Sportsbooks have released all of their Week 13 NFL TD odds, and I have done the work of picking through each player’s odds, as well as the relevant TD stats for those players and their respective opponents. After all that work, I have come up with 12 players I believe are the best bets to score a touchdown in Week 13.

I suffered through an awful week of TD picks last week, going an embarrassing 2-10 to lose 4.8 units. Sorry to all of those who tailed. I still don’t understand how none of Kareem Hunt, Jalen Hurts, or Brian Robinson didn’t find the endzone in spite of their respective teams each scoring 26+ points. But I’m going to flush last week’s results, just like I did a good chunk of this season’s profit from TD bets. Here are the 12 players I am betting in Week 13 to get back on track with my TD picks!

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 13

I am betting the 12 players above to score a touchdown in Week 13, with each being a half-unit bet, other than Jahmyr Gibbs and Bucky Irving, who are full-unit bets.

While I only focus on NFL TD props in this article, SBD does have plenty of coverage on other types of props as well. You can check out our NFL props page to see all the available passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders, while it also does the line shopping for you!

Keep reading if you’d like to see my justification for each of the players above.

Jahmyr Gibbs

In spite of backfield mate David Montgomery being more of the traditional “goal line back,” he and Jahmyr Gibbs have split those duties pretty evenly. Montgomery has 12 carries inside of the five-yard-line, while Gibbs has 11. If you open it up to all red zone looks, Montgomery has 40 and Gibbs has 32. The result has been the two players tied for fourth in the league with 11 total touchdowns. The point here is that Gibbs is getting very similar opportunity to score, and has been just as effective (if not more).

Gibbs has at least one touchdown in eight of 11 games this season, and has scored in each of the Lions’ last two games. He will now face a Bears defense that allows the seventh-most yards per rush attempt, and given up 12 touchdowns on the ground. Chicago has allowed at least one rushing touchdown in three of their last four games, with the Patriots being the only team not to score one against them in that timeframe.

I like the Lions offense to roll in this one, and I believe we’ll see both of their RBs find the endzone. But I like the price on Gibbs better, especially with Montgomery potentially nursing an injury he sustained last week.

With the other sportsbooks listing Gibbs even shorter, I wouldn’t be surprised if these odds change before you get to read this. If that is the case, just know I wouldn’t bet this any shorter than -190.

• Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD (-163 at bet365)

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Malik Nabers

When I was first looking at this game, I was not very enthusiastic about picking an anytime TD scorer, as I don’t trust either of these offenses. My original thought was going to be Rico Dowdle, but I don’t like the near-even money odds on a running back who has scored three total TDs in ten games.

However, with it now sounding like Tommy DeVito will not be able to start at QB for the Giants, and we will get a Drew Lock start, I have warmed up to Giants pass-catchers. To be clear, I am not suggesting Lock is going to ignite some great Giants passing attack. I am just saying that I believe he is far better than DeVito. I, like many others, believe DeVito was installed as the starter for one reason: to ensure the Giants didn’t win games, protecting a nice early pick in the first round for them to select their franchise QB.

I think Lock is going to offer a pretty similar output to what Daniel Jones did, and potentially even a little better with his stronger arm and more aggressive playing style. With that in mind, I like Malik Nabers to score a touchdown against a Cowboys defense that allows the second-most net yards per pass attempt. Nabers lit this Dallas secondary up in Week 4 with 115 receiving yards before having to leave the game with a concussion.

The rookie receiver is the focal point of this lousy Giants offense, and I believe we’ll see Lock do everything in his power to get him the ball early and often.

• Pick: Malik Nabers Anytime TD (+240 at BetMGM)

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Jonnu Smith

It’s not that Jonnu Smith wasn’t being used at all in the Dolphins offense prior to Week 11, but something has changed over the last two weeks. Smith was averaging 38.6 receiving yards per game through the first ten weeks of the season, but has now posted 87 and 101 yards, respectively, in his last two games. These haven’t just been the result of big plays either. In the first ten weeks, Smith’s high for targets was eight, but he saw six or fewer targets in six of those nine games. He has seen eight and 11 targets, respectively, in his last two games.

It feels the Dolphins have finally unlocked Smith and are taking advantage of his excellent YAC skills. The tight end has scored three touchdowns over the last two games, and has either been the team-leader or tied for team-lead in targets in both of those games.

With the success Miami has had using Smith more in the offense, I like it to continue in Week 13 when they take on a tough Packers defense at Lambeau. I suspect Green Bay will look to focus on limiting Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane, though, leaving opportunities for Smith. At +250 odds to score a TD, I couldn’t look away from Smith.

• Pick: Jonnu Smith Anytime TD (+250 at bet365)

DeAndre Hopkins

When the Chiefs played the Raiders in Week 8, we saw Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy score Kansas City’s touchdowns. However, it sounds like Isiah Pacheco is going to make his return to the lineup, and we will see a combo of him and Hunt in the backfield. So, I’m avoiding the Chiefs RB situation for now while we wait to see how it plays out.

Instead, I am going to back DeAndre Hopkins to score a touchdown in the Chiefs’ second meeting with the Raiders. Hopkins was playing in his first game with the Chiefs when these teams met the first time, and he recorded two catches for 29 yards on three targets. It was a bit of a soft launch for Hopkins in this offense. In the four games since, the veteran wide receiver has scored three touchdowns and received at least six targets in two of those games.

I like Hopkins to take advantage of a not-so-great Raiders secondary that has allowed 20 touchdowns through the air this season. Regardless of who starts at QB for the Raiders – because I think one option could keep this game competitive and the other will not – I don’t think Kansas City has the luxury of taking their foot off the gas right now. They need to be treating every game as a “get right” opportunity after losing to the Bills two weeks ago, and nearly losing to the Panthers last week.

• Pick: DeAndre Hopkins Anytime TD (+220 at Caesars)

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Tee Higgins

When Tee Higgins has been on the field this season, he has been good. The problem is he has only been on the field for six of Cincinnati’s 11 games to this point. Looking to those six games, Higgins has seen double-digit targets in three of them, with his season-low being six, and he has scored at least one touchdown in three of them – he has four total TDs, though. Higgins found the endzone in each of his last two games before suffering his latest setback that saw him miss last week’s game.

But the 25-year-old is healthy again and returning in Week 13 to help his Bengals take on the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense has been very good this season, but we did see Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense has some success through the air against them back in Week 5. I think Joe Burrow can operate a similar style of quick-game on Sunday, and suspect Higgins will be a big part of it.

With a lot of attention likely to be given to Ja’Marr Chase, I like Higgins to score another TD on Sunday.

• Pick: Tee Higgins Anytime TD (+145 at Caesars)

Anthony Richardson

Since regaining the starting role in Indianapolis, Anthony Richardson is looking much closer to the QB many were very excited about last year. He he been much more accurate with the football, and (more relevant to this article) is being asked to run the ball more than he was earlier this season.

In Richardson’s first six games, he only had one game where he carried the football more than eight times, and just one rushing touchdown. He has recorded ten rushing attempts in each of his two starts since taking back over, and has two touchdowns in those games – both came against the Jets two weeks ago.

What’s even more encouraging is that both of those recent games came against pretty good defenses in the Jets and Lions. Richardson will see an average-at-best defense when he takes on the Patriots in Week 13. New England allows touchdowns on 59.5% of their opponents’ red zone drives, which is similar to the Jets’ 59% (where he scored two TDs), whereas the Lions only allow TDs on 40% of those drives, the second-best mark in the league.

New England is going to sellout to stop the run when Indianapolis gets close to the goal line, and I expect Shane Steichen to give his big QB at least a couple opportunities down there.

• Pick: Anthony Richardson Anytime TD (+160 at Caesars)

Nico Collins

I’m coming back to Nico Collins this week, after he was one of few players who came through for me last week. Collins was eased back into action in his first game back from injury in Week 11, but it was back to the Collins show last week.

The star WR played 79% of Houston’s offensive snaps last week, saw a team-high nine targets, and turned that into a team-high 92 receiving yards with a touchdown. Collins has now scored a touchdown in four of seven games this season, and will be taking on a Jaguars secondary that ranks last in passing yards allowed, passing TDs allowed, and net yards allowed per pass attempt.

Houston needs to bounce back from their loss to the Titans last week, and specifically get things right with CJ Stroud as they continue their playoff push. I believe the key to unlocking Stroud is throwing the ball to Collins more. As long as the big WR sees some targets against this awful Jags defense, I like him to get into the endzone.

• Pick: Nico Collins Anytime TD (+125 at bet365)

Cooper Kupp

Matthew Stafford loves throwing the ball to Cooper Kupp, and because of that, I love betting Cooper Kupp to score touchdowns when sportsbooks give me longer than +120 odds. In this case, Caesars is giving me +130, which I think is great value.

Kupp has proven that there is a solid role for him in this Rams offense even when Puka Nacua is healthy. Nacua has seen more targets than Kupp in two of their last three games, but the latter is the one who keeps finding the endzone. Kupp has scored a TD in four of seven games this season, and has three total TDs over his last two. Nacua only has one touchdown this season.

I think Kupp will make it three straight games with a TD when the Rams take on the Saints in Week 13. New Orleans is allowing the fifth-most net yards per pass attempt, and just gave up 395 passing yards to Jameis Winston before going on bye last week. I like Stafford to have a big game, and in turn, Cooper Kupp to benefit, finding the endzone at least once.

• Pick: Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (+130 at Caesars)

Bucky Irving

The leader of the Buccaneers backfield is still a little murky, as both Bucky Irving and Rachaad White continue to see a similar number of carries. But Irving has seen nine more touches than White over Tampa Bay’s last three games, and he is clearly the more effective back with the ball in his hands.

Irving is averaging 5.9 yards per touch compared to White’s 5.0. There is a bigger discrepancy in yards per rush attempt, though, as Irving averages 5.4 YPC versus White’s 3.7. Touchdowns is one of the few stats where White currently has a lead, as he has scored six TDs against Irving’s five.

White has a touchdown in each of his last five games, but Irving also has a touchdown in each of his last two, and four of his last six. I believe this backfield is going to continue trending towards Irving as the leader, and I love the +120 odds we are getting on him to score a touchdown at bet365. The Bucs take on the Panthers in Week 13, who have allowed more points than any other team in the NFL, and 17 of the TDs they have surrendered have been on the ground.

• Pick: Bucky Irving Anytime TD (+120 at bet365)

AJ Brown

Of the 35 offensive touchdowns the Eagles have scored this season, 23 of them have been scored by either Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts, and 22 of them have been rushing TDs. So, why am I betting AJ Brown to score a touchdown for the Eagles this week then? Because Philadelphia will take on the Baltimore Ravens, who are the best defense in the league against the run.

Baltimore only allows 3.5 yards per rush attempt, and they have only given up nine touchdowns on the ground. The Ravens pass defense, on the other hand, has not been good. Baltimore has allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL, and have seen 22 touchdowns scored against them through the air.

I am not saying Jalen Hurts and/or Saquon Barkley will be completely stopped or held out of the endzone, but I do believe it will be in Philadelphia’s best interest to utilize AJ Brown in this game. Brown has scored a touchdown in four of eight games this season, and just snapped a four-game touchdown drought last week. I like him to get a TD in his second straight game.

• Pick: AJ Brown Anytime TD (+130 at FanDuel)

James Cook

James Cook has been fantastic for the Bills this season, scoring at least one touchdown in seven of ten games, and has a team-high 11 touchdowns this season – Josh Allen is second on the team with five.

At the time of writing this article, Nick Bosa had not practiced yet, and was not looking like he will play on Sunday night. If he does end up playing, I like this bet a little less, but still believe there is value. The 49ers have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per carry this season, but last week proved that Bosa is a big part of San Francisco’s ability to stop the run. Without Bosa last week, the 49ers allowed the Packers to run for 169 yards, which is tied for the second-highest total they have allowed this season.

Even if Bosa does play, though, San Francisco has allowed 16 rushing touchdowns this season. I like Cook to add another one to that total on Sunday night.

Most other sportsbooks have Cook at -140 or shorter. If bet365 shortens their odds before you get to bet this, I would not bet him at odds any shorter than -130.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (-110 at bet365)

Courtland Sutton

As Bo Nix has continued to get comfortable in Sean Payton’s offense, Courtland Sutton has been the biggest beneficiary. The veteran wide receiver has now seen double-digit targets in three of his last five games, and he has scored a touchdown in two of his last three – he has three total TDs in that timeframe, though.

Sutton is the go-to receiver for Nix regardless of where they are on the field, but especially so in the red zone. Nix has fed Sutton 17 targets in the red zone, which is second in the NFL, only trailing Ja’Marr Chase by one target.

As the Broncos prepare to take on a Browns defense that hasn’t been very good against the run or pass this season, I like Courtland Sutton to stay hot and find the endzone for a second straight game.

• Pick: Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+185 at Caesars)

The post NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 13: Predictions for TD Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

I have spent the past few days going through all of the betting markets for Week 12 of the 2024-25 NFL season, with one thing in mind: crafting the perfect NFL parlay. What I have come up with this week is a five-leg, 93-1 odds longshot NFL parlay, as well as a +162 higher-probability NFL parlay.

I hit three of the five legs in my longshot parlay last week, which would have made a nice profit if you bet them as singles as well. But I came up short on the full parlay. I did hit my higher-probability parlay at +195 odds, though, marking the second straight week I have done so.

Let’s see if I can crack the big NFL parlay for Week 12!

Longshot Week 12 NFL Parlay

My longshot NFL parlay for Week 12 has five legs and is best placed at bet365, where you can get +9303 odds. This means a $5 bet would profit $465.16 and return $470.16. Prior to this week, bet365 had not been a sportsbook where my parlays could be placed, as their player milestones went up by multiples of 25 or 50. They just changed that ahead of this week, and are likely to be the best book for many of my parlays moving forward. (If you’re not betting with bet365 yet, check out our bet365 app review if you want to know more about them before signing up. But they’re one of my favorites, for what it’s worth.)

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DraftKings gets close to this price at 89-1, while all the other major sportsbooks are well behind. Keep reading to see why I like each of the five legs above, as well as my second NFL parlay below the analysis.

This longshot NFL parlay gets started with CJ Stroud to record 250+ passing yards. Stroud threw for 257 yards last week while playing with a lead the entire game, and the Cowboys defense being unable to stop Joe Mixon on the ground. It was just the second time he had surpassed 250 passing yards over the past six weeks. But it comes as no coincidence that Stroud and the passing game showed some life last week. The boost should be credited to Nico Collins returning to the lineup. In games where Collins has played, Stroud has thrown for over 250 yards in four of six and is averaging 273.7 passing yards per game in those contests. I believe the Titans will hold up against the run much better than Dallas did last week, forcing Stroud to put the ball in the air a little more.

I went into why I like Mike Evans to score a touchdown this Sunday in my Week 12 NFL TD picks. The gist here is Baker Mayfield will be thrilled to have one of his trusted receivers back, and I like him to get Evans worked in early and often, but especially in the red zone.

The next leg of this NFL parlay is an alternate spread of Commanders -13.5. Washington is riding a two-game losing streak, but those losses came at the hands of two good teams (Steelers and Eagles). Their Week 12 opponent, the Dallas Cowboys, is not a good team. Dallas was a bad team with Dak Prescott under center. They’re a horrible team with Cooper Rush at QB. The Cowboys allow the eighth-most yards per rush attempt and have allowed the second-most points in the league. In the last five weeks, they have given up 184 rushing yards to the Lions, 223 to the 49ers, 100 to the Falcons, 187 to the Eagles, and 141 to the Texans. Washington averages the seventh-most yards per rush attempt, and are going to run up the score against their divisional foe.

Next up, I’m taking Jameson Williams for 60+ receiving yards. Williams has gone over this total in five of the eight games he has played this season, and is coming off a 124-yard outing against the Jaguars last week. The Lions face another bad defense in Week 12, as they head to Indianapolis. The Colts defense gives up the seventh-most net yards per pass attempt, and have had a knack for giving up big plays through the air too.

Last but not least, I have Demario Douglas to record 50+ receiving yards against the Dolphins. Douglas has accomplished this feat in each of his last two games, and four of his last seven. However, looking at the three games where he came up short, the most recent was against the Titans, where he had seven receptions on nine targets. He just wasn’t able to break loose for any big ones. The second came against the Jets, when QB Drake Maye left the game very early with a concussion. The third was the Patriots’ game against the Jaguars, where Douglas left the game after the first drive, though he had two catches for 14 yards on three targets in that first drive. Douglas remains New England’s best playmaker, and the Patriots are likely going to need to put up a decent amount of points in this one.

Higher-Probability Week 12 NFL Parlay

My higher-probability NFL parlay for Week 12 has three legs and can be had at +162 odds at DraftKings. FanDuel comes in very close at +161, and bet365 is also close at +155. You can find my analysis on each leg below!

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I’m starting this higher-probability NFL parlay off with an alternate spread of Chiefs -6.5. Kansas City finally lost their first game of the season last week at the hands of the Bills, though they should have lost the previous week as well, and probably even the week prior. I believe the loss will only humble and motivate this team as they prepare to take on the worst team in the league in Carolina. I don’t believe Bryce Young will be able to get anything going against a Chiefs defense that ranks fifth in yards allowed and eighth in points allowed. The Panthers have given up more points than any other team in the NFL, and can’t stop the run or pass. Even if the Chiefs offense struggles to get back on track, I still believe they win this game by at least a touchdown.

The next leg is Nico Collins for 50+ receiving yards. Collins has recorded at least 54 yards in all six games he has played this season, even the one he left early with an injury. His season-low of 54 yards came last week, which marked his return from injury. The Texans eased their star WR back in, though, as he only played 47% of their offensive snaps – he is typically above 80%. I believe he’ll play a bigger percentage of the team’s snaps this week against the Titans, and he should have no problem hitting this number.

The final leg of this parlay is a pretty familiar one, but I did warn everyone each of the last two weeks that if sportsbooks keep giving me Cooper Kupp for 50+ receiving yards at odds this long, I would have to keep taking it. So, here we are. Kupp has only gone under this total once this season, and it was the game he got hurt in the second quarter. He is fresh off a 106-yard game against the Patriots, and has 100+ receiving yards in two of his last three now. I appreciate the Eagles defense has been very good against the pass, but the connection Matthew Stafford has with Kupp is what I suspect the Rams will lean on in what is likely to be a game where they’ll need points.

The post Free Week 12 NFL Parlay Picks: Get 93-1 Odds with This Parlay appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Week 12 of the 2024-25 NFL season got underway Thursday with our first snow game of the year. Though it doesn’t sound like we’re getting any more snow games this week, there are still another 12 games across Sunday and Monday. If you’re looking for some help in betting any of those 12 games, my SBD formula and I have offered our Week 12 NFL picks below.

I went 1-1 on my upset picks last week, winning 0.76 units, while my SBD formula went 1-0, winning 1.52 units. For what it’s worth, it did also have the Saints winning, which would have been worth an extra 1.05 units. They were the favorites in their matchup last week when this article was written, though. If you managed to capture all of the above, you would have profited 3.33 units. But that’s enough gloating. We’ve got more money to make. Here’s both of our NFL picks for Week 12!

Week 12 NFL Picks

Between my SBD formula and I, we have three upset picks for Week 12. If you were hoping to see picks for every game, you have received them. My SBD formula has favorites winning every game other than the Cardinals beating the Seahawks (they are a small underdog at the time of writing this article), and Chargers beating the Ravens on MNF.

Going a step further, though, my SBD formula does have some tight margins of victory for Week 12. Here are the favorites it has winning their respective games by less than three points:

1. Dolphins to beat the Patriots by 1.8 points
2. Packers to beat the 49ers by 1 point

It also only has the Chargers beating the Ravens (one of its two predicted upsets this week) by 1.7 points. If anything changes with spreads/predictions, I will communicate that through my Twitter/X.

Depending how quickly you get to this article, the odds associated with the moneyline picks above may be stale. Be sure you check out our NFL odds page to shop for the best price before you place your bets!

If you wanted more than just moneyline NFL picks for Week 12, we also have you covered. Zach Reger has published his Week 12 NFL picks against the spread, and John Hyslop has shared the Week 12 NFL player props he likes best. If you want some justification for my picks above, keep scrolling!

Bears Over Vikings

It appears firing OC Shane Waldron has brought positive results for the Bears. In less than a week under new OC Thomas Brown, the Bears posted their third-highest yardage total of the season.

For extra context, the only two games they put up more yards came against the Colts and Panthers – two bad defenses. They just posted 391 yards against a good Packers defense, and it was actually the second-most yards Green Bay had given up all season. The performance was far better than what we saw the week prior, as Chicago only totaled 142 yards against the Patriots in Week 10, which was the second game of the season where they didn’t manage to record at least 150 total yards.

What I think was especially encouraging was their commitment to the ground game and what they were able to produce. They’ll need that type of effort in Week 12 when they take on a Vikings defense that allows the second-fewest yards per rushing attempt, because Caleb Williams is not going to be able to shoulder the offense in this one.

I do think Chicago will get just enough from their offense, but the main reason I like the Bears to pull off the upset is their defense against Sam Darnold. The former third-overall pick is having a career-year, but he hasn’t handled pressure overly well this season. I think the Bears defense has also been motivated by the coaching changes, and think they can bring some pressure.

Chicago has allowed the seventh-fewest points in the NFL and rank 14th in yards allowed. What may be even more important here is that they are capable of generating turnovers. They have forced 17 turnovers this season, nine of which were interceptions. I think they’re going to give Darnold trouble all day, and the team who is able to run the ball better and control the clock will win.

I think there’s a 50% chance that’s the Bears. So, the +162 odds have a lot of value, in my opinion.

• Pick: Bears moneyline (+162 at Caesars)

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Patriots Over Dolphins

Similar to my Buccaneers pick from a couple weeks ago, I want to be transparent that I do not think the Patriots have a better than 50% chance to win this game. However, I do feel their chances are between 40-45%, which is much better than the implied probability of 24.4% that comes from the +310 odds. So, call this another value play.

Typically, if two teams have played each other already this season, I would go into analyzing that performance from both sides. However, when the Patriots and Dolphins met back in Week 5, it was Jacoby Brissett versus Tyler Huntley. So, I’m going to throw that one out.

Instead, I’m focusing on what I have seen from these two teams in the last month. Tua Tagovailoa has been back under center in each of Miami’s last four games, and the offense (of course) has been much better. However, they still haven’t shown me the explosion we saw early last season. The Dolphins only have nine pass plays of 20+ yards from Weeks 8-11, which is tied for 23rd. I think Mike McDaniel is trying to protect his QB, and Tyreek Hill has not been his usual self this season.

On the other hand, I can see the confidence building in rookie Drake Maye. He had to leave the Jets game early with a concussion, but came back the next week and mounted a nice comeback against the Titans, which was a game they probably should have won. The win over the Bears in Week 10 is a little tough to celebrate, as I think Chicago had checked out. But I would argue Maye just had his best game of the season against the Rams last week, as the Patriots only lost by six.

I think we’re going to see Maye outplay Tua on Sunday, and put the Patriots in a position to win this game down the stretch.

• Pick: Patriots moneyline (+310 at BetMGM)

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The post NFL Picks for Week 12: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Sportsbooks have released NFL touchdown props for all 13 games in Week 12 of the 2024-25 NFL season. This is the least amount of games we have seen in any week of the season thus far, but there are still hundreds of TD props available. Trying to research all of these lines and the corresponding stats is quite the task! Thanks to working in the industry, I get paid to do it! So, I’m here to share the players I believe are the best bets to score a touchdown in Week 12.

I went 5-5 on my TD picks last week, winning 1 unit. I have 11 players I am betting to find the endzone this week, with each one being an anytime TD scorer – I avoid the very unpredictable first TD scorer market. Check out my 11 TD picks below!

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 12

I am betting 11 players to score a touchdown in Week 12. Each player listed in the table above is a half-unit bet, except for Brian Robinson Jr and Jalen Hurts, who are both full-unit bets.

If Isiah Pacheco does not make his return, there is a decent chance I add Kareem Hunt to my TD picks as well. Follow me on Twitter/X to get that update immediately!

This article is solely focused on NFL TD picks for Week 12, but SBD does have plenty of other NFL player props coverage. Check out our NFL props page for all the latest passing, rushing, and receiving lines for all players – it even does the line shopping for you!

You’ll find my analysis on each of the 11 picks below!

George Pickens

I’m really not sure why BetMGM is offering +225 odds on George Pickens to score a touchdown on Thursday Night Football, but I’m going to take advantage of it. For perspective, bet365 has his odds at +150 and Caesars is offering +160. That’s not to suggest those two books are sharper than the rest, rather to provide an idea of how far apart some sportsbooks are on Pickens’ likelihood of scoring a TD.

Pickens has scored a touchdown in two of the four games he has played with Russell Wilson now. He did not find the endzone last week against the Ravens, but he did see 12 targets that he turned into eight receptions for 89 yards. The Steeler with the next-most targets last week was Najee Harris with five. Pickens is without a doubt the go-to receiver in Pittsburgh, and his size makes him a real red zone threat.

The third-year WR is tied for fifth in the NFL with 14 red zone targets, but has the fewest TDs among the top five players in that category. I think the TDs start pouring in for Pickens, starting with Week 12 when he takes on a Browns defense that allows the ninth-most net yards per pass attempt.

Cleveland just gave up 35 points to the Saints last week and I think are a demoralized team who knows their season is over.

• Pick: George Pickens Anytime TD (+225 at BetMGM)

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Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams is a big play waiting to happen. Three of his four touchdowns on the year – in just eight games – have been 40+ yards, tying him for the second-most big-play (40+ yards) TDs. He is also tied for second in touchdowns of 20+ yards, as all four of his TDs fall into that category.

What has been really encouraging for me is the targets he is seeing since returning from his suspension. Williams has seen five and six targets, respectively, over the last two games, and seems to have a significant role in the Lions offense. If he sees those same targets again, I like him to score another touchdown against Indianapolis in Week 12.

The Colts have given up the fourth-most big plays (40+ yards) with nine on the season, and allow the seventh-most net yards per pass attempt.

• Pick: Jameson Williams Anytime TD (+210 at BetMGM)

Mike Evans

Tampa Bay’s passing game was still pretty good in their first game without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (Week 8), but it took a major step back in their next two games. Baker Mayfield only managed 200 and 116 (season-low) passing yards, respectively, in those games.

But now riding a four-game losing streak and coming out of the bye with a healthy Mike Evans, I like the Bucs pass attack to get back on track. Evans has at least one touchdown in four of seven games, and has scored six total TDs. That was while playing with Chris Godwin as well, who scored five touchdowns of his own in seven games. Without Godwin, I like Evans and Cade Otton to dominate the targets the rest of the season.

I appreciate how bad the Giants, Tampa Bay’s Week 12 opponent, have been against the run this season, but they seem to tighten up at the goal line, as they have only allowed eight touchdowns on the ground. Also, I simply cannot pass up the +160 odds with Evans.

• Pick: Mike Evans Anytime TD (+160 at DraftKings)

Rhamondre Stevenson

After a little stint in Jerod Mayo’s doghouse, Rhamondre Stevenson appears to be back in the Patriots’ good books. Stevenson has seen at least 21 touches in three of the last four games, with 15 touches being the one outlier. He has scored four total touchdowns in that period, though they all came in two games.

Stevenson has scored at least one touchdown in five of ten games this season, and is fourth in the league in red zone looks per game with 3.90. One of those games with a touchdown was New England’s Week 5 matchup with the same Dolphins team they’ll meet in Week 12.

Miami’s defense ranks 14th in yards allowed per rush attempt and have surrendered ten rushing TDs this season. With Drake Maye under center, I think the Patriots offense moves the ball well enough to trust Stevenson in a game that doesn’t come against a terrible defense.

• Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+130 at bet365)

Nico Collins

As you know, I’m a man who believes in second chances. Nico Collins let me down last week in his return from a five-game absence, as he was not able to get in the endzone. But it did appear Houston was easing him back into action. Collins only played 47% of the Texans’ offensive snaps last week. Outside of the game he got injured in, his previous low this season was 80% of their snaps.

With no known setbacks in last week’s game, or at this point during practice, I like the training wheels to come off against the Titans in Week 12. Tennessee has allowed the second-fewest yards in the NFL, but I think that’s a misleading stat. Part of that is the three games they played against bad offenses (Bears in Week 1, Jets, and Dolphins without Tua), and another factor is offenses taking their foot off the gas early because of massive leads – the Lions only totaled 225 yards but won 52-14 back in Week 8. But my point here is that their defense is good, not great, meaning the Texans offense won’t be able to just lean on Joe Mixon as much as they did last week.

Collins has a touchdown in three of six games this season and has double-digit targets in three of six as well. I like him to add his fourth TD of the season on Sunday.

• Pick: Nico Collins Anytime TD (+120 bet365)

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Brian Robinson Jr

In a Week 12 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys, who just gave up three TDs on the ground last week and have allowed 18 rushing touchdowns this season, I did not expect to see Brian Robinson Jr listed as long as -138 to score a touchdown. I suspected we would see odds much closer to -200.

Robinson has scored a touchdown in six of eight games played this season, and has seen the sixth-most red zone looks per game (3.75). After being humbled by the Eagles last week, I think we see a very motivated Commanders offense in Week 12, which should have no problem taking advantage of a Dallas defense that has given up the second-most points and sixth-most yards.

I’m taking Robinson to score a TD and laying a full unit on this one.

• Pick: Brian Robinson Jr Anytime TD (-138 at bet365)

Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams has operated as the Broncos’ unquestioned lead back for the majority of the season. Two weeks ago, after Williams averaged just under three yards per carry over the previous two weeks, we saw Sean Payton opt to give rookie Audric Estime more opportunities. The result was just three total touches for Williams in Week 10.

However, Estime wasn’t that impressive with the extra touches, and it seems Payton may have gotten a positive response from Williams to the “benching.” Williams out-touched Estime 13-9 last week and was much more effective than the rookie with the ball in his hands, averaging a season-high 6.6 yards per carry versus Estime’s 2.7.

What an amazing story it would be if a washed-up running back like Javonte Williams could revive his career at 24 years oldpic.twitter.com/xGLEIN5ZJy

— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) November 17, 2024

I think this remains Williams’ backfield, and I like him to find the endzone for a second straight game. Denver gets the Raiders again in Week 12. The Broncos put up 34 points when the two met back in Week 5, while Williams totaled 111 yards from scrimmage in that game. With the Broncos offense moving the ball much better over the last month, I like them to continue scoring against a Raiders defense that has allowed the fourth-most points in the league.

• Pick: Javonte Williams Anytime TD (+160 at bet365)

George Kittle

If George Kittle says he is suiting up for San Francisco’s Week 12 matchup with the Packers, I not only believe him, but also believe the 49ers will not hold him back while their season is spiraling.

The 31-year-old tight end has been a massive part of San Francisco’s offense this season. He has scored a touchdown in six of eight games, and has seven total TDs to his name. Kittle is tied for seventh in the NFL in red zone targets, but has played two to three fewer games than everyone above him on the list.

I do think part of why he was receiving so many red zone targets can be attributed to two things: (1) Brandon Aiyuk’s slow start the season, and (2) Jordan Mason’s ineffectiveness in the red zone. The former remains an issue as Aiyuk’s season is over, but the latter should be alleviated with Christian McCaffrey back healthy. However, I don’t think McCaffrey is fully healthy yet – or is just still finding his groove after being away from football for so long.

But even if McCaffrey does shake off the rust this Sunday, I still like Kittle to be a major factor in this game, especially in the red zone.

• Pick: George Kittle Anytime TD (+220 at FanDuel)

James Conner

Though we may be seeing Trey Benson finally starting to carve out a meaningful role for himself in the Cardinals offense, it is still James Conner’s backfield. I also think his more powerful approach to carrying the rock will bode well for Arizona in Week 12 as they take on the Seahawks.

Seattle allows 4.8 yards per carry (25th) and have watched a few RBs have monster games against them over the last handful of weeks. I’m not here to bet Conner to rush for 150+ yards, but I do believe he will find the endzone at least once.

Conner is averaging 3.1 red zone looks per game, which is good for 17th in the NFL. He hasn’t converted a ton of those opportunities, though, as he only has five touchdowns to his name this season. Against a weak Seahawks run defense, I think he scores his sixth.

• Pick: James Conner Anytime TD (-120 at bet365)

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts has now scored a touchdown in five straight games, and six of his last seven. He has totaled nine rushing TDs in those last five games, and has three more red zone rushing attempts than Saquon Barkley.

Hurts will take on a Rams defense that has been pretty good against the run in Week 12, only allowing 4.3 yards per carry and has only give up seven touchdowns on the ground. However, LA has given up the 11th-most points in the league and 10th-most yards.

I have no problem with the Eagles throwing the ball to get down to the red zone, though, as long as Hurts continues to see his large share of Philadelphia’s red zone touches. But why wouldn’t he? Hurts has only thrown 33 passes in the red zone this season, which is 20th in the league. They get even more conservative inside the ten-yard-line, as Hurts has only attempted 13 passes from that part of the field, which is 23rd.

If sportsbooks keep offering near-even odds on Hurts to score a touchdown, I’m going to have to keep taking it.

• Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-110 at bet365)

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Quentin Johnston

We have now seen Quentin Johnston score a touchdown in each of his last three games, and has scored in five of eight games this season. He’s tied for second in the league with four TDs of 20+ yards. While Ladd McConkey has been the Chargers’ safety blanket, Johnston has been their big-play threat.

Heading into a matchup with a Ravens defense that allows the sixth-most net yards per pass attempt, but also the fewest yards per rushing attempt, I like the big-play threat to see some opportunities. Johnston is also coming off a season-high eight targets in last week’s game, though he only caught two of them. That game last week may be a tell for what to expect in terms of volume for Johnston this week, as the Ravens offense will likely be able to match what the Bengals did to the Chargers defense last week.

• Pick: Quentin Johnston Antyime TD (+200 at DraftKings)

The post NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 12: Predictions for TD Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

In trying to put together the perfect NFL parlay(s) for Week 11 of the 2024-25 season, I have gone through all of the betting options available. The result has been a five-leg, longshot NFL parlay that comes with 91-1 odds, and another three-leg, higher-probability NFL parlay.

I only hit two of the five legs in my longshot parlay from last week, but if you’ve been betting them as singles as well (I have been), you would have made a small profit. I also hit my +188 higher-probability parlay, making it a nice week of NFL parlays.

Let’s see if I can keep the momentum going into Week 11.

Longshot Week 11 NFL Parlay

The best place to play my longshot five-leg NFL parlay for Week 11 is DraftKings, where you can get +9136 odds. (Or that was at least the price at the time of writing this.) A $5 bet with these odds would potentially win $456.83 and return $461.83. You can get close at FanDuel with +8601 odds, but neither BetMGM or bet365 are options for these exact legs, as their milestones don’t line up.

Here’s why I like each leg of this NFL parlay.

The first leg is Russell Wilson for 250+ passing yards. The Steelers QB has gone over 250 passing yards in two of his three starts this season, but his one game under that total was his most recent. Pittsburgh ran the ball 43 times against the Commanders last week, though, and I do not believe they will opt for that many rushes against a Ravens defense who not only allows the fewest rushing yards per carry, but have also given up the most passing yards this season. It’s also reasonable to think the Baltimore offense forces Pittsburgh into a negative game script in this one.

I discussed why I like a De’Von Achane anytime touchdown against the Raiders in my Week 11 NFL TD picks.

The third leg is Matthew Stafford for 275+ passing yards, which I also cashed last week. Stafford has gone over this total in all four games with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp this season, and is averaging 296.8 passing yards in those games. He gets the Patriots, who rank 20th in net yards per pass attempt, in Week 11. Coming off a loss to the Dolphins, where their offense struggled to score, I don’t foresee them taking their foot off the gas if they find themselves with a lead. But I’m also not overly confident they will find themselves with too big of a lead in this one.

Next up is Cedric Tillman for 70+ receiving yards. He has accomplished this feat in each of Cleveland’s three games since trading Amari Cooper. One of those games came against the Chargers, who allow the fifth-fewest net yards per pass attempt. I think he has a shot for a really big game against a Saints defense that allows the seventh-most net yards per pass attempt, and his QB playing in a revenge game.

The final leg of this NFL parlay is Texans -13.5. I have zero faith in Cooper Rush and the Cowboys offense to score many points after only managing six at home against the Eagles last week. While I do respect the “Lions hangover” that Houston may suffer through this week, I think the return of Nico Collins provides the jolt of energy to get their offense going against a mediocre-at-best Cowboys defense.

Higher-Probability Week 11 NFL Parlay

The best sportsbook to place this three-leg, higher-probability NFL parlay for Week 11 is also DraftKings. You can get +195 odds at DraftKings, while both FanDuel and Caesars do come close. Here’s some quick analysis on why I like each of these three legs.

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The first leg is Lions -6.5. Detroit is taking on the Jaguars Sunday, and I believe their defense will overwhelm Mac Jones just as the Vikings defense did last week. I don’t foresee Jacksonville’s offense putting many points on the board, and I like Jared Goff to bounce back after arguably the worst game of his career last week.

I discussed why I like the Rams offense against the Patriots this weekend above in my longshot parlay, and am double-dipping a little bit with Cooper Kupp for 50+ receiving yards. He has gone over this total in four of five games this season, with the outlier being the game where he got injured before halftime. I’m not sure why we’re still getting -255 odds on Kupp to surpass 50 yards, but I’m going to keep taking it as long as it’s offered.

The final leg of this parlay is Jauan Jennings for 40+ receiving yards. In Jennings’ first game back since the Brandon Aiyuk injury, he had 11 of Brock Purdy’s 36 pass attempts come his way. This was the high on the team and four more than the second-most targeted player. He turned those targets into 93 yards, which was also a team-high. The 49ers get the Seahawks this weekend, who will likely spend their time focusing on neutralizing Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. Jennings for 40+ yards should not come with odds this long.

The post Free Week 11 NFL Parlay Picks: Get 91-1 Odds with This 5-Leg Parlay appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Week 11 of the 2024-25 NFL season got underway Thursday night, and featured another 13 games across Sunday and Monday. If you’re looking for help in betting any of these remaining Week 11 games, I have paired up with my SBD formula to offer our Week 11 NFL picks below!

As usual, I am going to focus on the underdogs my SBD formula and I believe can win their games outright, making them good bets on the moneyline. In doing so, we are technically sharing picks for each game, though.

I went 0-1 last week, but the Buccaneers came close to pulling off a big upset, while my SBD formula did not have any predicted upsets. If you did take the three teams I highlighted where it had the favorite winning by a very small margin, the underdog went 3-0 in those games. Here’s who we’re both on for Week 11!

Week 11 NFL Picks

It’s another shorter list of upset picks for Week 11 from my SBD formula and I. However, we are both predicting at least one upset this weekend, and have a combined three underdogs to bet on the moneyline. As I said above, if you are looking for picks for each game in Week 11, you have received them. My SBD formula has favorites winning all but one game.

For some extra insight, these are the teams my SBD formula has winning their respective matchup by less than three points:

1. Jets to beat Colts by 0.4 points
2. Bills to beat Chiefs by 1.2 points

It has every other favorite (outside of the Ravens, who it has losing to the Steelers) winning their game by at least three points – this does include the Saints, as they were the consensus favorites at the time of writing this. If anything changes, I will provide an update on my Twitter/X.

As usual, the moneyline picks above come with the best odds at the time of writing this article. Those odds are likely to be stale by the time you read this, so be sure to check our NFL odds page for the best price at the time you are reading this!

Also, if you wanted more than just moneyline picks for Week 11, you can check out John Hyslop’s Week 11 NFL player props and/or Zach Reger’s Week 11 NFL picks against the spread. If you are looking for some analysis on the picks above, keep scrolling!

Browns Over Saints

As is the case with many of these upset picks this season, this pick is more about fading the Saints than it is backing the Browns. I am simply not a believer in Darren Rizzi’s Saints.

In their first game under their new head coach, New Orleans was outgained by more than 100 yards, saw the Falcons possess the ball for more than 35 minutes, and only scored three points in the second half. Yes, they won the game, but I think this was just one of those weird Kirk Cousins games.

The Saints cannot stop the run, they give up 5.1 yards per carry, are not good against the pass, they allow the seventh-most net yards per pass attempt, and their offense has been pretty bad outside of the first two weeks. They don’t face a very good football team in Week 11, but I do think the Browns should win this one.

Cleveland has decided to stick with Jameis Winston this Sunday as they come off their bye week, setting up a bit of a revenge game for their QB. I think he’ll come out with something to prove and think the Browns have the advantage on both offense and defense.

• Pick: Browns moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)

Colts Over Jets

This pick is very similar to above. I appreciate that there isn’t a ton of confidence in Anthony Richardson, who is taking back over under center for Indianapolis, right now, but why does anyone have faith in the Jets right now?

New York is fresh off being blown out 31-6 by the Cardinals. The Jets only managed 207 total yards in the game and the Cardinals took their foot off the gas the entire fourth quarter. They are now 1-4 since firing Robert Saleh and don’t seem to be showing any promise of putting things together.

At the very least, I have some optimism that a couple games on the bench has motivated Richardson, while four Joe Flacco interceptions and back-to-back passer ratings south of 80 over the last two games has proven to the Colts offense that they need to rally around their second-year QB.

This should be a coin toss game, not one where Indianapolis is getting +176 odds.

• Pick: Colts moneyline (+176 at FanDuel)

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We have NFL touchdown props available to us for all 14 games in Week 11 of the 2024-25 NFL season! I have scoured through the hundreds of TD props available, paired with what I feel to be all the relevant statistics/information to predict which players are the most likely to score a touchdown this week, or who have been mispriced by the sportsbooks, and therefore show value.

I went 5-6 on my TD picks last week, winning 0.24 units. I am back with another ten anytime touchdown scorers for Week 11, which can be found in the table below with analysis on each if you keep scrolling.

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 11

I am betting ten players to score a touchdown in Week 11 and each of the above is a half-unit bet, except for Jahmyr Gibbs, who is a full-unit bet. There is also a possibility I add a couple TD picks on Sunday, so be sure you’re following me on Twitter/X to get that info as quickly as possible.

I have only touched on NFL TD picks in this article, but if you can see all the passing, rushing, and receiving lines on our NFL props page. (It even does the line shopping for you!)

You can find justification for each of my picks below!

Jalen Hurts

Though the Eagles have leaned quite a bit on Saquon Barkley in his first season with the team, it is Jalen Hurts who leads the team in touchdowns. Hurts has scored ten touchdowns (not including passing) to Barkley’s eight, and he has been especially hot lately.

The Eagles QB has at least one touchdown in each of his last four games, but has also totaled eight in that span. Hurts sees a Washington Commanders team on TNF that ranks 29th in yards per carry allowed. In what I suspect will be a high-scoring game (the sportsbooks back me up on this with a total as high as 49.5), Hurts should have a few red zone opportunities to punch one into the endzone.

• Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-110 at BetMGM)

Cooper Kupp

Though the Rams offense has suffered through some big injuries this season, it comes as a surprise to me that only three players have scored a touchdown for them through their first nine games. Kyren Williams is the leader with ten of the 17 TDs to his name, then Demarcus Robinson with five, and finally Cooper Kupp with two. It’s the latter player on the list that I like to add another touchdown in Week 11 when the Rams take on the Patriots.

Kupp may only have two touchdowns in the five games he has played this season, but he is actually LA’s leader in targets by a fair bit in spite of the lack of time on field. He has seen 56 targets this season, which is 13 more than the next-most targeted player. He is also second on the team in targets inside the ten-yard-line with five – Robinson is the team-leader with six.

The point I’m making here is how much Matthew Stafford loves throwing the ball to Kupp. Against an average-at-best Patriots defense this weekend, in what already feels like a bit of a must-win game after losing last week, I like Stafford to continue leaning on his favorite target, getting him his third TD of the season.

• Pick: Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (+145 at FanDuel)

Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs has scored a touchdown in six of nine games this season, and has totaled eight on the year – tied for the team-lead with David Montgomery. The second-year pro has yet to be held out of the endzone in back-to-back weeks this season, and he did not score in Detroit’s narrow win over the Texans last week.

Gibbs will face a Jaguars defense that only allows 4.3 yards per carry, but has given up 11 touchdowns on the ground. One of the reasons they have given up all those rushing touchdowns is because their opponents have largely been playing with big leads and have been willing to just sit on the ball and kill some clock. With Mac Jones starting at QB for Jacksonville again this week, I believe Detroit will also have this luxury.

The Lions defense will overwhelm Jones, just as Minnesota did last week, and I believe Dan Campbell will want his offense to make a statement one week after their worst rushing performance of the season. I love both Montgomery and Gibbs to score a TD in this one, but the latter has the longer odds.

• Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD (-150 at Caesars)

Cedric Tillman

Since the Browns traded away Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman has been a monster for them. Tillman has seen 32 targets in those three games, producing at least 75 receiving yards in each, and has at least one touchdown in two of them (three total).

The Browns are fresh off their bye week, and will take on the Saints in Week 11, which is Jameis Winston’s previous team. I obviously don’t know Winston personally, but feel pretty confident in saying he is the type of guy who gets up for a revenge game. I expect him to be sharp against a Saints defense that has allowed the seventh-most net yards per pass attempt, and are entering their second week without star corner Marshon Lattimore.

I like Tillman to see plenty of opportunities again and love the +200 odds BetMGM is offering on him to score a touchdown.

• Pick: Cedric Tillman Anytime TD (+200 at BetMGM)

De’Von Achane

Though he let me down last week, I am coming back to De’Von Achane to score a touchdown in Week 11. Achane’s 52 yards from scrimmage were by far the lowest he has recorded in a game where Tua Tagovailoa started this season, as he had posted at least 100 in all the others.

However, the encouraging part is that the touches were still there. Achane handled 12 of the 17 running back carries last week, and his five targets were only one behind Jaylen Waddle for the team lead. As long as he sees a similar amount of opportunities against the Raiders on Sunday, which I think he will, I think he’ll find himself back in the endzone.

Las Vegas has allowed the third-most points in the NFL and Gardner Minshew has failed to get much going in his time under center. I believe the Dolphins will find themselves playing with a lead early, and Achane will see plenty of touches.

• Pick: De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-125 at bet365)

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Jauan Jennings

I know Ricky Pearsall has made some nice plays when given the opportunities, but I believe Jauan Jennings is going to be the biggest beneficiary of Brandon Aiyuk being out for the rest of the season. In Jennings’ first game back from injury, he turned a team-high 11 targets into seven receptions for 93 yards. You may also remember his 175-yard, three touchdown performance in Week 3 when neither Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel suited up.

Brock Purdy and, maybe more importantly, Kyle Shanahan have a lot of trust in Jennings, and he has made the most of his opportunities when given them. While I do appreciate that Christian McCaffrey will continue to be worked into the offense more, I do not suspect Jennings’ opportunities will dry up, especially while Samuel is also a little banged up.

The 49ers will see the Seahawks, who are 23rd in points allowed and 25th in total yards allowed, in Week 11. When they met five weeks ago, San Francisco scored 36 points. I like the offense to put up a similar number on Sunday, with Jennings seeing a good target share. At +250 odds, I think Jennings to score a touchdown is great value.

• Pick: Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+250 at bet365)

Courtland Sutton

Ever since he did not see a single target in Denver’s Week 7 matchup with the Saints, Courtland Sutton has been a target monster. Sutton is averaging ten targets per game over the last three weeks, has two 100+ yard games in that span, and has a touchdown in one of those games.

Sutton’s big performances have not surprisingly coincided with rookie QB Bo Nix seeming to get more comfortable in Sean Payton’s offense and with the NFL game overall. Their next game together comes against an Atlanta Falcons defense that ranks 23rd in net pass yards allowed per attempt, and surrendered 17 touchdowns through the air.

At +205 odds, I like the value in Sutton to score a touchdown.

• Pick: Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+205 at DraftKings)

Travis Kelce

After an incredibly slow start to the 2024-25 season, I believe we are seeing Travis Kelce start to heat up. Over his last three games, Kelce has seen 12, 16, and 12 targets, respectively, and has a touchdown in two of those games. I believe the emergence of DeAndre Hopkins has helped, while Kelce himself looks to be moving a little better than he was early in the season.

The Chiefs will see the Bills on Sunday, who I suspect are going to force Patrick Mahomes to play with some urgency. In seven career regular season games against the Bills, Kelce has four touchdowns, and he most recently scored two TDs against them in their playoff matchup last season.

• Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+165 at Caesars)

Ladd McConkey

To be transparent, this is the anytime TD pick I’m least confident in of the ten I am betting this week. I have a hard time trusting the Chargers offense, but I also love betting against the Bengals defense. Cincinnati ranks 26th in points allowed and 23rd in yards allowed. Bad offenses produce points against the Bengals.

Thankfully, I would classify the LA offense as slightly below average, but not necessarily “bad.” They have now scored at least 26 points in each of their last three games, and I like them to keep that streak alive.

For as good as the Chargers defense has been this season, I like Bengals offense to put up some points and force Justin Herbert to put the ball in the air. When Herbert has thrown the ball, which hasn’t been often, Ladd McConkey has been his favorite target. McConkey has seen a team-high 54 targets this season and scored four touchdowns. I like him to add a fifth Sunday night.

• Pick: Ladd McConkey Anytime TD (+215 at Caesars)

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Nico Collins

At the time of writing this, Nico Collins was trending in the right direction to play. If he doesn’t suit up, this bet will void and I’ll take a new player ahead of the game. If he does play, I like him to make an immediate impact in his return.

Collins scored a touchdown in three of the five games he has played this season, and was averaging 113.4 receiving yards per game. CJ Stroud was averaging 277 passing yards per game in those five games, but has seen that average drop to 197.2 passing yards per game in the five games without Collins.

Stroud is going to be eager to get his favorite receiver the ball in his return to the lineup, and I like that to lead to a touchdown against a bad Cowboys team. Dallas has allowed the second-most points in the league as well as the second-most net yards per pass attempt.

• Pick: Nico Collins Anytime TD (+128 at Caesars)

The post NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 11: Predictions for TD Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

I have another two NFL parlays for Week 10 of the 2024-25 NFL season. I hit two of the five legs in my longshot NFL parlay last week, and was robbed of my higher-probability parlay thanks to Puka Nacua getting himself ejected early in the second quarter.

Crafting the perfect parlay means considering all options. With another 13 games to be played, I have spent the week going through all of the NFL betting lines for Week 10. After a lot of research, I have settled on two NFL parlays. One is a longshot NFL parlay with 83-1 odds, and the other is a higher-probability parlay with +188 odds.

Check both of them out below, along with my analysis on why I like each leg.

Longshot Week 10 NFL Parlay

My Week 10 NFL longshot parlay consists of five legs and is best played at FanDuel, where you can get +8373 odds. A $5 bet on this five-leg parlay at +8373 odds will stand to profit $418.67 and return $423.67.

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DraftKings had all the same milestone options, but they were only offering about 73-1 odds on this parlay. All of the other major sportsbooks forced me into higher/lower milestones on Pickens, Barkley, and Stafford.

The first leg of this parlay is a Justin Jefferson anytime TD. I went into detail about why I like this bet in my Week 10 NFL TD picks.

Next up is George Pickens for 80+ receiving yards. In the two games Pickens has played with Russell Wilson this season, he has recorded 111 and 74 receiving yards, respectively. The game with 74 yards also could have been more if not for a couple plays being called back. Those two games came against teams who don’t have great offenses, allowing Pittsburgh to play with a positive game script for good chunks of them. I don’t foresee them having that luxury against a very good Washington offense, resulting in them needing to play more aggressive most of, if not all of, the game.

My next leg is Saquon Barkley for 110+ rushing yards. In Barkley’s last three games, he has recorded 159, 108, and 176 rushing yards, respectively. I appreciate those games came against teams who are not very good against the run, but neither is his opponent in Week 10. Dallas allows 4.6 yards per carry and have surrendered the third-most rushing yards in the league. On top of that, I suspect Philadelphia will find themselves playing with a positive game script early on, as Dallas prepares to start Cooper Rush at QB.

I threw an alternate spread into my parlay with Lions -6.5. The spread in this game is Detroit -3.5, but I believe this is much more than a field goal game. The Texans are struggling to replace their injured wide receivers, as Nico Collins has missed their last four games and Stefon Diggs missed their last game (and will not be back this season). It’s unclear if Collins will be able to return for this one (at the time of writing this), but even if he does, I don’t expect him to be his usual dominant self yet. Detroit is arguably the best team in the league and will continue showing it Sunday night.

The final leg of my longshot NFL parlay comes from the Monday Night Football matchup for Week 10, as I like Matthew Stafford to throw for 275+ yards. In the three games Stafford has played with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp starting, he has recorded 317, 279, and 298 passing yards, respectively. This Rams team is building confidence by the week and have their eyes on the playoffs. I like Stafford to stay hot and take advantage of a Miami defense that ranks 18th in net yards allowed per pass attempt. It’s also worth noting the Dolphins just gave up 307 passing yards to Kyler Murray two weeks ago.

Higher-Probability Week 10 NFL Parlay

My higher-probability NFL parlay for Week 10 has three legs and is also best priced at FanDuel, who is offering +188 odds. Every major online sportsbook offers the proper milestones for this parlay, but others paid out less.

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The first leg of my higher-probability parlay is Vikings moneyline. Minnesota to cover the spread (-6.5) is one of my favorite picks of Week 10, so I am very comfortable taking them to simply win the game. It sounds like Mac Jones is going to make his first start for the Jaguars, and I believe Brian Flores’ defense will tee off on him. Jones does not have the mobility to evade the pressure Flores will bring, and don’t believe he will have had the practice reps with the first-team offense to consistently beat this defense with the quick passing game.

Next up is Jahmyr Gibbs to rush for 50+ yards. Gibbs has recorded at least 50 rushing yards in seven of eight games this season, with the only miss coming back in Week 1. Gibbs is averaging 82 rushing yards per game, and has become an integral part of this Lions offense. Detroit will be seeing a Houston defense that allows 4.7 yards per carry on SNF this week.

The final leg is Cooper Kupp for 50+ receiving yards. Kupp has accomplished this feat in three of four games this season, with the outlier being the game he got hurt and left before halftime. I already discussed why I like the Rams passing game in my longshot parlay analysis above, so will keep this one short and sweet.

The post Free Week 10 NFL Parlay Picks: Get 83-1 Odds with This 5-Leg Parlay appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

We were treated to a thrilling start to Week 10 of the 2024-25 NFL season, and now get another 13 games across Sunday and Monday, including an early Sunday game in Munich. If you wanted some help in betting any of the remaining games of Week 10, or just wanted confirmation on a lean, I have shared my NFL picks below, alongside my SBD formula’s predictions.

The NFL picks you’ll find below are focused on the underdogs I am betting to win their respective games outright, as well as the dogs my formula predicts will win their games. I’m looking for a bounce back week after both my formula and I got roughed up last week.

Here’s who we’re betting in Week 10!

Week 10 NFL Picks

This is by far the shortest list of upsets my SBD formula and I have come up with in the last four years. I only have one underdog that I am betting to win their game outright in Week 10, and my SBD formula is predicting zero upsets this week.

So if you were looking for picks for each game, you have gotten them. My formula believes favorites will win every game this week. However, my SBD formula does have very tight margins of victory for the following favorites:

1. Commanders to win by 1.3 points
2. Jets to win by 1 point
3. Rams to win by 2.4 points

So, if you wanted to take any of the underdogs from those games (Steelers, Cardinals, and Dolphins), you can do so knowing my formula sees each one as essentially a coin toss. The New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams are both barely favored in their respective matchups, so there’s a chance we see those lines shift and we might have a predicted upset from my formula. Be sure you’re following me on Twitter/X for further breakdowns of my formula’s predictions, and an alert should we see anything change from above.

The moneyline odds for my Buccaneers pick above were the best odds available at the time of writing this. You’ll want to check our NFL odds page after reading this to go shop for the best moneyline available at that time.

If you wanted more than just moneyline NFL picks, check out Zach Reger’s Week 10 NFL picks against the spread. If you want some analysis on why I like the Bucs this week, keep reading below!

Buccaneers Over 49ers

Before I dive into exactly why I like the Buccaneers to upset the 49ers this week, I want to be clear that this is a value play for me. I don’t think the Bucs have a better than 50% chance to beat San Francisco this week, but I think they have a much better chance than the odds suggest.

Tampa Bay’s moneyline odds are +245 at FanDuel, which implies a 29% probability of them winning the game. I believe their true probability of winning this game is around 45%. Here’s why!

For starters, I really like this Tampa Bay offense. They rank fifth in both total yards and points scored. They’re fourth in average yards per rushing attempt and tenth in net yards per pass attempt. They can attack in a variety of ways and have shown a ton of resiliency in playing without Chris Godwin or Mike Evans in either of their last two games (basically three since they both left early against the Ravens).

After seeing them score 24 points against a very good Chiefs defense (in Kansas City), I’m confident this offense will be able to put up points against what I believe to be an average 49ers defense.

The second point I want to make is around the Bucs’ bad defense, which is 30th in total yards allowed and 28th in points allowed. I think they’re going to get bailed out this Sunday as they take on an offense in transition.

San Francisco is expected to be welcoming Christian McCaffrey back to the lineup after he missed the first nine weeks of the season. It has been a long time since he has played a football game, and I don’t expect him to jump right back into his workhorse role this Sunday. At the time of writing this, however, it sounds like Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings are both truly questionable to play.

I believe the biggest thing the 49ers have been missing without CMC is his big-play potential, especially late in games. Their offense has lacked that killer instinct late in games to put teams away – see their loss to the Cardinals. But again, I’m not sure McCaffrey will be able to provide that right away. So, in a game where I expect the 49ers offense will have to score to keep up, I’m not overly confident they’ll be able to, in spite of seeing a bad defense in front of them.

An added bonus here is that this is a situation where a team from the Pacific Time Zone is traveling to the Eastern Time Zone and being forced to play in the early block on Sunday. Historically, west coast teams do not do well in this scenario, and we saw the 49ers lose to the Vikings in this same scenario in Week 2. Their upset at the hands of the Browns last season also happened in this situation.

Overall, this is a 4-4 San Francisco team, in a tough spot on the road, trying to work their best player back into the offense in his first football game since February. Give me the +245 odds on the Bucs!

• Pick: Buccaneers moneyline (+245 at FanDuel)

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Sportsbooks have released NFL touchdown props for all 14 games in Week 10 of the 2024-25 NFL season. While NFL TD props are without a doubt the most popular prop to bet, according to any sportsbook you ask, betting them does require a fair amount of research. Knowing not everyone is as lucky as I am to work in the sports betting industry, I have done all the work required for betting TDs in Week 10, and am happy to share the 11 players I have found present the best value below!

Sadly, I went 4-7 last week, losing 0.79 units. (I replaced Brian Robinson with Austin Ekeler.) It was a frustrating one with Justin Jefferson going for 137 yards without a TD, Tank Dell being held TD-less in spite of his 126 yards, Ja’Marr Chase not catching any of Joe Burrow’s five TD passes, and Puka Nacua getting himself ejected in the second quarter. In other words, I liked the reads, just didn’t have much luck.

But here’s to getting back on the right track in Week 10! As usual, I am sticking with anytime TD props, not betting any first TD scorers.

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 10

I am risking a half-unit on each of the NFL touchdown picks above, except for David Montgomery, who is a full-unit bet. There is a chance I add more, or swap a player if they end up not playing, so be sure to follow me on Twitter/X to receive that update!

I have only covered NFL TD props in this article, but if you wanted more, you can go check out our NFL props page. It has all the passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders for every player, while also doing the line shopping for you on each bet!

If you want some justification for why I’m betting the 11 players above, keep reading below for my analysis on each.

Ja’Marr Chase

Yes, Ja’Marr Chase let me down last week, but I am someone who believes in second chances. I may not be so willing if he didn’t receive 11 targets last week. But the big factor here is that Chase is a Raven killer.

It was just a handful of weeks ago that Chase went for 193 yards and two touchdowns while catching ten of his 12 targets against Baltimore. He now has five touchdowns in seven games against the Ravens and is averaging 99.7 receiving yards per game against them. Among the teams he has played more than once in his career, Chase only averages more receiving yards per game against two teams. What’s even more impressive about that stat is that Baltimore’s defense has been one of the best in the league for two of those seasons (2022-2023), accounting for four of the seven games.

That’s not the case this season, though. Baltimore has given up the most passing yards per game and rank 27th in net yards allowed per pass attempt.

I am confident the Ravens are going to put up points of their own, forcing Cincinnati to remain aggressive all game. When the Bengals are forced to pass, Chase typically sees more targets. So, I like Chase to score a touchdown in Week 10!

• Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (-110 at bet365)

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Malik Nabers

I know Tyrone Tracey may be the more popular pick to score a touchdown for the Giants this week, but I’m going with Malik Nabers.

New York plays the Panthers in Week 10, who have allowed more rushing yards than any other team in the league. However, they rank 20th in yards allowed per rushing attempt, while ranking dead-last in net yards allowed per pass attempt. Carolina is not great against the run, but they’re allowing so many yards on the ground because they have also faced the most rushing attempts – a result of their offense being horrible and teams sitting on big leads most of the game.

I don’t know if the Giants offense, who has scored the fewest points in the league, can workup a big enough lead in this game to find themselves playing with a positive game script for very long. So, I think they’ll have to continue putting the ball in the air, meaning Nabers is going to get his opportunities against an awful secondary.

Nabers has seen double-digit targets in five of seven games, with seven being the fewest he has seen in a game (coming in his first game of the season). The rookie has been held out of the endzone since Week 3, but he did miss two games due to a concussion as well. So, his touchdown-less streak has only reached four games now.

If he sees double-digit targets against the Panthers, which I think he will, he’s going to break one loose and get himself a touchdown.

• Pick: Malik Nabers Anytime TD (+135 at DraftKings)

James Cook

Another guy who let me down last week is getting a second chance. James Cook has scored a touchdown in five of eight games this season, and he now faces a Colts defense who has allowed the fourth-most total yards in the league.

While I do suspect Ray Davis to continue receiving some of the opportunities out of Buffalo’s backfield, Cook is still their guy. In a game against a Joe Flacco-led Colts offense, I like Buffalo to be playing with a lead for the majority of it. The result will be more touches for Cook than he saw against the Dolphins last week.

The biggest pull for me here is the price of Cook’s anytime touchdown odds. Some books had him as short as -155 when I wrote this. I think those odds are much closer to his actual probability of scoring a TD in this game, and just felt there is too much value in the -115 odds offered by FanDuel.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (-115 at FanDuel)

Justin Jefferson

I apologize if you are sick of seeing me bet Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown. Admittedly, I’m getting sick of writing the same analysis over and over, especially when it has not cashed for me lately. Jefferson only has one touchdown in his last four games, but opened the season with a touchdown in four straight.

But it’s not like Jefferson is any less of the offense as he was early in the season. If we compare his first four games to his last four, we see that Jefferson was targeted 29 times in those first four versus 40 times in the last four he has played. His last four games also make up three of his top four games in receiving yards.

He has just had some bad touchdown luck. But if sportsbooks are going to keep offering Jefferson’s anytime TD odds at this price, I’m going to have to keep betting it, especially when he’s facing a Jaguars defense that is allowing the second-most net yards per pass attempt and the second-most passing touchdowns. Jefferson’s TD drought ends here.

• Pick: Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (-105 at DraftKings)

Darnell Mooney

I have been hammering Drake London to score touchdowns most of this year, and it has been paying off. He even managed to get one for me last week before leaving the game with an injury. But that same hip injury that forced London out of the game last week has resulted in him being a limited participant at practice so far this week.

With London’s status up in the air for Sunday, I’m going to jump on fellow Falcons receiver Darnell Mooney. The former Bear has been very involved in Atlanta’s offense in his first season with the team, as he has seen just two fewer targets than London, who is the team-leader in the category. Mooney has been the more explosive option of the two, though, averaging 14.3 yards per touch versus London’s 11.

Mooney has also scored five touchdowns this season, just one fewer than London. Mooney has a touchdown in each of his last two games, and may see an increased target share if London were to either miss the game or find himself limited.

I’m always a little hesitant to bet on/against a team who has just fired their coach, as we don’t know how they’ll respond. But New Orleans was already 25th in net yards allowed per pass attempt, and they just traded away Marshon Lattimore. I suspect their effort against the run to improve, which I think only results in Atlanta attacking through the air more.

I’m comfortable making this bet right now because I like the price on Mooney even if London does play. But if London is out, I suspect we’ll see Mooney’s anytime touchdown odds shorten closer to even-money.

• Pick: Darnell Mooney Anytime TD (+160 at BetMGM)

Kareem Hunt

I’m not sure why Caesars is offering this price on Kareem Hunt to score a touchdown. I think they’re giving the Broncos defense a little too much credit with this line. We just saw Derrick Henry rush for 106 yards and two touchdowns against this Denver defense last week.

I’m not saying Denver’s defense isn’t good, or even great, but I don’t think their offense is supporting them well enough. Baltimore had so much success against them last week, scoring 38 points in the first three quarters, because they didn’t allow Denver’s ability to pressure the QB to force them into mistakes and the Broncos offense wasn’t able to let their defense get much rest. I think we’ll see Patrick Mahomes play the same way this week.

I don’t think we see 41 points out of Kansas City this week, but I do suspect them to score a couple/few touchdowns. I also believe at least one of those touchdowns will be scored by Kareem Hunt. We have seen Hunt score at least one touchdown in each of his four games as Kansas City’s starting running back, and he has seen at least 21 carries in each of them. He totaled 28 touches in the Chiefs’ game against the Bucs last week, though it did require overtime to help him rack up some extra touches and his touchdown.

I don’t foresee Andy Reid wanting to get too cute in the red zone against this aggressive Broncos defense, instead opting for smash-mouth football with Hunt.

• Pick: Kareem Hunt Anytime TD (-129 at Caesars)

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George Pickens

George Pickens only has one touchdown this season, but he now has scored in 50% of the games played with Russell Wilson as his quarterback. (Yes, that’s only a sample size of two games.) Pickens also had two touchdowns called back in Pittsburgh’s last game against the Giants two weeks ago – one because of a penalty and the other because apparently tapping the same foot twice doesn’t count as two feet inbounds.

So, he was very close to having scored a touchdown in 100% of Wilson’s games. I like Pickens to make it two of three when the Steelers take on the Commanders in Week 10, though. Washington’s offense has been very good this season, and I suspect they’ll be able to solve this tough Steelers defense and put up some points.

I believe this will lead to Pittsburgh finding themselves playing from behind for a bit in this game, meaning Wilson will be putting the ball in the air and trying to attack vertically. I’m not sure there is a better jump-ball receiver in the league than Pickens.

On top of that, Washington ranks 21st in net yards allowed per pass attempt and have given up 14 passing touchdowns this season. I like Pickens to get his opportunities in this one, and trust him to come down with at least one of them.

• Pick: George Pickens Anytime TD (+200 at DraftKings)

Cade Otton

With it seeming likely that Mike Evans will miss another game, the Cade Otton experience will continue for at least another week. Since Chris Godwin and Mike Evans got hurt, Otton has seen double-digit targets in each game, which includes the game where those two went down.

The Bucs tight end has turned those extra opportunities into 100, 81, and 77-yard receiving performances, scoring at least one touchdown in two of three. He has totaled four touchdowns in his last four games as well. In Tampa Bay’s most recent game, which came against Kansas City, Otton’s 11 targets were good for a 35.5% target share from quarterback Baker Mayfield.

With the state of Tampa Bay’s defense, which has allowed the fifth-most yards and third-most points, their offense will be forced to play aggressive all game. Not to mention, San Francisco (their Week 10 opponent) only allows 4.3 yards per carry.

I like Otton to see plenty more targets in this one, and think he’ll convert another one into a touchdown.

• Pick: Cade Otton Anytime TD (+180 at FanDuel)

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts now has at least one rushing touchdown in five of eight games this season, including at least one in each of his last three games. But he has also totaled six rushing touchdown in those last three games.

Hurts is preparing to face the Cowboys, who have allowed 13 touchdowns on the ground this season, for the first time this year. Dallas will be starting Cooper Rush with Dak Prescott suffering an injury last week. I bring this up because I think it’s reasonable to expect Dallas’ aerial attack to take a step back with Rush starting his first game of the season.

The result will be Philadelphia not needing to be overly aggressive throughout the game, likely being able to just sit on the ball and run clock. That seems like a recipe for a Hurts TD.

• Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+110 at bet365)

David Montgomery

David Montgomery has not been his reliable self when it comes to producing touchdowns over the last few weeks. Montgomery has only scored a touchdown in one of his last three games after starting the season with at least one touchdown in five straight.

But I’m not losing any faith in Montgomery and it doesn’t appear Detroit is either. They gave him 17 carries last week, and he averaged 4.3 YPC with those attempts. But a pretty good Packers run defense, paired with some bad weather that made moving the ball a little tough, was able to hold him out of the endzone.

Montgomery will see a Texans defense that allows 4.7 YPC in Week 10, and the game will be played indoors, removing any weather concerns. Houston has only allowed five rushing touchdowns this season, but I think that’s more about the offenses they have played than it is about their run defense being anything special.

Also, in his 1.5 seasons with the Lions now, Montgomery has only been held out of the endzone in back-to-back games once. I’m betting Montgomery to keep it to just one set of back-to-back games without a touchdown on Sunday night.

• Pick: David Montgomery Anytime TD (-125 at bet365)

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De’Von Achane

No Miami Dolphin has benefitted more from Tua Tagovailoa’s return to the lineup than De’Von Achane. In four games without Tua, Achane was averaging 47.3 yards from scrimmage per game – though, he did leave one of those games early due to injury. Achane did not score a single touchdown in those four games.

In the four games he has played with Tagovailoa, Achane has recorded at least 100 yards from scrimmage and at least one touchdown in each of them. He recorded two touchdowns in Miami’s game against the Bills last week.

Achane now prepares to face a Rams defense that’s 22nd in points allowed and 24th in yards allowed. While LA does rank 11th in yards per carry allowed, I’m not concerned about them shutting Achane down, who has done just as much damage as a receiver as on the ground.

It’s also worth noting that Achane has scored five of Miami’s 12 total touchdowns this season. I like him to add at least one more on Monday night.

• Pick: De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-110 at bet365)

The post NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 10: Predictions for TD Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

With the 18-week schedule of the NFL season, we have an official halfway point, which is now upon us after the conclusion of Week 9 on Monday night. With another nine games ahead (the second half of the 2024-25 NFL season), I decided to update my NFL strength of schedule rankings so we can have a look at what each team is facing over the next nine weeks.

If you want to see the full NFL SOS rankings for the second half of the season, you can go ahead and click the link above. My goal in this article is to focus on the two extremes (easiest and toughest schedules) and determine what we can do with this information from a betting standpoint.

Bears Have Toughest NFL Strength of Schedule in 2nd Half

In order to update my NFL SOS rankings, I used NFL win totals that have been updated after each week of the season. This allowed me to figure out which teams faced the easiest and toughest schedules over the second half of the season. The team with the toughest remaining nine games is the Chicago Bears.

Chicago’s average opponent over the final nine weeks is a 9.94-win team. For context, the next toughest belongs to the Steelers, who will face an average 9.61-win team.

Here’s a look at their nine remaining opponents, since they have already had their bye:

Bears Remaining Schedule

Six of Chicago’s final nine games are played against teams with double-digit win totals, and one of the other three comes against the 49ers, who are likely to have Christian McCaffrey fully worked into the offense by the time Week 14 rolls around. All six of those double-digit win total opponents are divisional games as well. Chicago has yet to play a single game against a fellow NFC North foe, and those three teams (the Lions, Vikings, and Packers) are arguably three of the top five teams in the conference.

How to Bet the Bears NFL Futures

Before I dive into which Bears futures bets I like right now, let’s take a look at each of their current NFL futures:

• To make the playoffs (+490 at FanDuel) / to miss the playoffs (-550 at Caesars)
• Win total = 7.5 (-140 Ov / +115 Un)
• NFC North odds = +4000

I have left out NFC Championship and Super Bowl odds, since they’re not worth consideration.

Unfortunately, we missed the boat on betting the Bears to miss the playoffs. At -550 odds, I don’t believe the risk is worth the reward. However, I do like the under on their win total, which you can get at +115 on BetMGM or ESPN Bet.

The Bears are currently 4-4 with wins over the Titans, Rams (without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp), Panthers, and Jaguars. Rams aside, who were very banged up at the time, the other three teams would find themselves on just about everyone’s list of the five worst teams in the league.

Yes, Chicago has played some close games against the Colts, Texans, and Commanders. But their schedule gets a whole lot tougher in the second half. I think it’s very possible they go 0-6 within their division, and don’t like them to beat the 49ers either.

I also feel this team is imploding right now. That loss to the Cardinals last week was awful. The Bears are playing like a team who is trying to get their coach fired right now. For as good as their defense may be, I don’t see another four wins on their schedule.

• Pick: Bears Under 7.5 Wins (+115 at BetMGM or ESPN Bet)

Buccaneers Have Easiest Remaining NFL SOS

The easiest remaining NFL strength of schedule belongs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their final nine weeks will be played against opponents who average out to a 6-win team. This is by far the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. The next easiest belongs to the Falcons, who will see an average 7.38-win team.

Here’s a look at Tampa Bay’s schedule over the second half of the 2024-25 NFL season:

Buccaneers Remaining Schedule

Before you ask, know that I have considered bye weeks in my calculations. Tampa Bay has not had their bye yet, as it comes in Week 11.

The Bucs have the luxury of playing the Panthers, arguably the league’s worst team, twice in the second half, while four of their other six games come against teams whose win totals are 6.5 or less. To be fair, the Cowboys game in Week 16 may end up being tougher than it seems right now, depending on whether Dallas’ talent returns from injury by then.

Tampa Bay’s toughest opponent over the second half appears to be the Los Angeles Chargers, with the San Francisco 49ers being the only other team they play whose win total is north of 6.5. This is quite the change from the Buccaneers’ first half of the season, when they have played an average 10.67-win team. That first half was the toughest in the NFL.

How to Bet the Buccaneers NFL Futures

Here’s a quick look at the NFL futures we have available for the Buccaneers:

• To make the playoffs (+225 at BetMGM) / to miss the playoffs (-235 at Caesars)
• Win total = 8.5 (+110 Ov / -125 Un)
• NFC South odds = +900

Tampa Bay is currently 4-5 and two full games back of the Falcons for the NFC South lead. It should also be noted that Atlanta has clinched a potential head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay as well, since they have already beaten them twice. Pair that with the fact that Atlanta has the second-easiest remaining schedule, and I don’t see value in betting the Bucs to win the division.

I do, however, believe the over 8.5 on the Bucs win total at +110 odds presents some value. I have them beating the Panthers both games, Saints (again), Raiders, Giants, and probably the Cowboys too. I’m also not writing them off in their games against the 49ers or Chargers.

If you do believe they’ll lose to the 49ers this week, you could hold off on making this bet until next week, when they would have even better odds (assuming they do lose). I’m not going to do that, though. I’m placing the bet now. I don’t think San Francisco is the powerhouse we have known them to be over the past few seasons, and may suffer through some initial growing pains as they work Christian McCaffrey back into the offense.

Also, I like the over on their win total better than betting them to make the playoffs. I think either the Eagles or Commanders take one wild card spot, and the other two could very well go to the NFC North. But then there’s also the entire NFC West in the hunt for one of those spots as well.

• Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8.5 Wins (+110 at Caesars)

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The post Bears Have Toughest 2nd-Half Strength of Schedule in NFL, Buccaneers Have Easiest appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

I’m back with two more NFL parlays for Week 9 of the 2024-25 season. Last week’s two parlays were both losers, and I’m kind of glad the Jets lost so we weren’t robbed of one parlay because of injury. I’m feeling really good about the two NFL parlays I have put together for Week 9, though.

I have gone through all the NFL betting lines for Week 9 and landed on two parlays: one longshot NFL parlay that gets me +7210 odds, and one higher-probability parlay at +155 odds. You can find both of them below, along with my analysis for each leg under the corresponding tables.

Longshot Week 9 NFL Parlay

My longshot NFL parlay for Week 9 comes in at five legs for +7210 odds at ESPN Bet. This is the best sportsbook to place this parlay with – or at least was at the time of writing this. DraftKings gets close at +7038 odds, but no other sportsbooks are good options. BetMGM and bet365 do not offer the proper milestones for the Stafford or Ridley legs, Caesars doesn’t give a 25+ option for Davis, and FanDuel did not have any props for the Patriots/Titans game.

A $5 bet on this parlay at ESPN Bet paid $360.50 when I placed it at the odds above.

I’m getting this NFL parlay started with Ray Davis to rush for 25+ yards. The Bills backup RB has accomplished this feat in each of their last three games. I do appreciate that two of those games were blowouts and James Cook did not play in the other. However, I foresee the Bills finding themselves in a positive game script again in their Week 9 matchup with the Dolphins. When these two teams met in Week 2, Davis saw nine carries and turned them into 29 yards in Buffalo’s 31-10 win. I like him to see another handful of rushing attempts and convert them into at least 25 yards.

I discussed why I like Brian Robinson to score a touchdown in my Week 9 NFL TD Picks. I know he’s listed as questionable at the time of writing this, but if he does play, I believe the Commanders at least use him in goal line situations.

The third leg of this longshot NFL parlay is Calvin Ridley for 60+ receiving yards. In the Titans first game with no DeAndre Hopkins, Ridley saw 15 targets, catching ten of them for 143 yards. This came against a decent Lions pass defense. Tennessee faces a New England defense in Week 9 who allows the seventh-most net yards per pass attempt. Whether it’s Mason Rudolph or Will Levis under center, I like Ridley to remain the focal point of the offense against a bad Patriots secondary.

I went into more detail on why I like the Bears this weekend in my Week 9 NFL Picks. With me liking them to win outright, I can get an even better price with the alt spread Bears -2.5, while also staying on the right side of a significant number in NFL spreads.

The final leg of the parlay is Matthew Stafford to throw for 275+ yards. The Rams QB has only hit this milestone in two of seven games this season, but he has also been without both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp for the majority of those games. The two games where he did hit this number were the two games Nacua has played in. Both of his receivers are healthy for their Week 9 matchup with an average Seahawks defense. Seattle ranks 15th in net yards allowed per pass attempt, and I think their offense will be able to put some points up to keep LA’s foot on the gas.

Higher-Probability Week 9 NFL Parlay

My three-leg, higher-probability NFL parlay for Week 9 is best played at FanDuel. ESPN Bet gets close to the +155 odds, but DraftKings is quite a bit lower. Caesars does not offer Hurts at 175+, while BetMGM and bet365 do not offer milestones for passing in multiples of 25.

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The first leg of this parlay is Bills moneyline. Buffalo beat Miami 31-10 in their first meeting, which was in Miami. They’re listed as big as 6.5-point favorites at home against the Dolphins in Week 9. I don’t think much of Miami this season. We have seen two fully healthy games of Tua Tagocailoa under center, and they barely beat the Jaguars at home and lost to the Cardinals.

Jalen Hurts to throw for 175+ passing yards is the second leg. Hurts has a great matchup against the Jaguars in Week 9. Jacksonville allows the second-most net yards per pass attempt, but they allow the sixth-fewest yards per rush attempt. As a result, I think we see Philadelphia look to attack more through the air. Hurts has thrown for at least 175 yards in five of seven, and I believe Jacksonville’s offense will do enough to keep this game competitive.

The final leg of this NFL parlay is Puka Nacua for 50+ receiving yards. Nacua saw nine targets in his first game back from injury, where he was obviously on some sort of snap count, and he turned the opportunities into seven grabs for 106 yards. This came against a good Vikings pass defense. The Rams WR also recorded 35 yards in just over a quarter of play in Week 1, the only other game he has suited up for this season. The Rams see a mediocre Seahawks pass defense in Week 9, and Nacua should not have any limitations or snap count.

The post Free Week 9 NFL Parlay Picks: Get 72-1 Odds with This 5-Leg Parlay appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Week 9 of the NFL season started with a loss for most of the betting public – my formula and I were on the losing side as well, unfortunately – but there are another 13 NFL games on Sunday and one more Monday for us to get our money back. If you want some help in betting the remaining 14 games, I’m happy to share my Week 9 NFL picks as well as my formula’s picks.

The NFL picks I will be focusing on in this article are the underdogs I am betting to win outright, as well as the underdogs my SBD formula has winning outright. This is why these NFL picks are moneyline picks. I went 1-0 on underdogs last week, winning 1.78 units, and my SBD formula went 3-1, winning 3.48 units.

Here’s who the two of us are betting in Week 9!

Week 9 NFL Picks

I have two underdogs I am betting this week, while my SBD formula has three predicted upsets. We agree on one of them, and for what it’s worth, it only has New England losing their game by 0.2 points.

The odds and sportsbooks I attached to each pick above were the best prices at the time of writing this article. It is likely they will not be the exact same when you get to reading this article. So, be sure you use our NFL odds page to shop for the best price on each of the bets above.

If you were looking for NFL picks for every game this week, you have technically received them. My SBD formula is predicting the favorite will win the other 11 games being played. Though, as mentioned earlier, it has an extremely tight margin of victory for the Titans. I also want to note that it only has the Broncos winning their game over the Ravens by 2.1 points. Every other margin of victory is at least five points. You can follow me on Twitter/X for further information on my SBD formula’s predictions.

I won’t be able to go into exactly why my formula likes the teams above, or else it won’t remain my formula for very long! (I intend to continue riding its coattails a while longer.) But I am happy to share some analysis on why I like the two teams I am picking below!

Patriots Over Titans

As is the case with many of my upset picks this season, this one is more about me fading the favorite as opposed to really backing the underdog. With the underdog here being New England, this is especially about me fading Tennessee.

I do not believe the Titans should be viewed as a better team than anyone right now. But that’s what the sportsbooks are saying here when they have made them 3.5-point favorites. Homefield advantage is typically worth 2.5 to 3 points, depending on the stadium and team, so the sportsbooks are calling the Titans a full point better than the Patriots with their spread.

I appreciate that the Titans defense has allowed the fewest yards in the league, but that’s a bit of a fake stat when you take a closer look at their games. Tennessee only allowed 61 net passing yards to the Lions last week, but they also lost the game 52-14. Jared Goff barely played because the Lions were up so much. They were blown out by the Bills 34-10 the week prior.

The Titans have also had the luxury of playing Caleb Williams in his first career start, the Malik Willis-led Packers, and the Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins. I don’t buy into them being a great defense.

They have an awful offense whether it’s Will Levis or Mason Rudolph under center. The Patriots are not a good team either, but I don’t think they’re worse than the Titans.

• Pick: Patriots moneyline (+158 at FanDuel)

Bears Over Cardinals

Plain and simple, the Bears are the better team in this matchup. Chicago has allowed the fourth-fewest points and 11th-fewest yards in the league. They’re good against the pass and I believe have the athleticism at edge and linebacker to contain Kyler Murray.

Caleb Williams’ rookie season has been quite up-and-down, and he’s coming off one of those downs against the Commanders last week, going just 10-of-24 for 131 yards. But Washington has a decent defense. The Cardinals do not. Arizona is 30th in net yards allowed per pass attempt and 21st in yards allowed per rush attempt. We have seen Williams take advantage of bad defenses this season, putting up 36 and 35 points against the Panthers and Jaguars, respectively.

I like Williams to get the offense moving against a bad Cardinals defense, and Kyler won’t be able to keep up. This is one of my favorite upset picks of the season.

• Pick: Bears moneyline (+105 at ESPN Bet)

The post NFL Picks for Week 9: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

NFL touchdown props for all 15 games in Week 9 of the 2024-25 NFL season are now available. Though NFL TD props are the most popular prop to bet, there is a fair amount of research that needs to go into them in order to make intelligent wagers. I certainly appreciate how difficult this may be for someone who doesn’t work in the sports betting industry, and that’s why I have gone ahead and done all that research for you! I have gone through all the NFL touchdown odds and relevant statistics for each player suiting up this week. The result is 11 players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 9.

I went 5-6 on my 11 picks from last week, with the 11th pick (Kittle anytime TD) being added Sunday, to win 1.13 units. As is always the case, I am sticking with anytime touchdown props, as I feel first TD scorer props are too unpredictable and lack value.

Keep scrolling to get the 11 players I am taking to score a TD this week!

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 9

I am risking a half-unit on each of the NFL touchdown picks above, except for James Cook and Kareem Hunt, who are both full-unit bets. This is the first week I am laying two full-unit bets, but I couldn’t say no on either Cook or Hunt. The value is too much.

I have covered all the prime time games for Week 9 above as well as a good number of the Sunday afternoon games. There are four games I am avoiding at the moment, as I feel they’ll be defensive battles (or just poor offensive output) and few touchdowns scored. But be sure to follow me on Twitter/X in case I change my mind on any of those.

If you are looking for more than just NFL TD props, check out our NFL player props page. You’ll get passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders for all players there, and the page also does the line shopping on each for you!

If you are interested to read why I like any of the 11 players above to score a TD this weekend, you can find my analysis below.

Tank Dell

If not for an awful drop in the endzone two weeks ago, Tank Dell would have a touchdown in every game Nico Collins has not played. Even with the drop, Dell still has a touchdown in two of the three Collins-less games. Houston will now play their Week 9 game against the Jets without Collins and Stefon Diggs, whose season ended last week after he tore his ACL.

Houston will certainly be looking to players like Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie III to step up, but Dell is now the go-to guy for an offense that’s best when CJ Stroud is putting the ball in the air. The Texans are also a team who isn’t afraid of throwing the ball inside the ten-yard-line. They have run the ball 17 times, three of which were Stroud carries, inside the ten, versus 15 pass attempts. Of those 15 pass attempts, five have gone to Collins, while Diggs and Dell have each seen four targets.

I do appreciate that the Jets are second against the pass and have only given up six TDs through the air, but they’re not going to totally shutdown Stroud. I’m expecting Dell to see a massive share of the targets on Thursday night, and think he’s too explosive to keep out of the endzone with so many opportunities. I especially love the price we’re getting on Dell’s anytime touchdown odds.

• Pick: Tank Dell Anytime TD (+200 at FanDuel)

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James Cook

I do not understand why every sportsbook doesn’t have James Cook’s anytime TD odds around the -180 we are seeing at DraftKings. But I’m thrilled not every sportsbook has followed suit, as it opens my favorite touchdown bet of the week.

Cook has scored a touchdown in five of seven games, which includes a TD in each of his last four. If that’s not attractive enough, let’s remember Cook scored three (3!) touchdowns in the Bills’ Week 2 meeting with the Dolphins. Miami has actually given up ten rushing touchdowns this season, tied for fourth-most in the league.

Cook has scored eight of Buffalo’s 27 touchdowns this season, while three players are tied for the second-most with three apiece. He has had a real nose for the endzone this season, and I love him to score a touchdown this week, especially at -110 odds.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (-110 at bet365)

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Ja’Marr Chase

At 3-5, the Cincinnati Bengals are a very desperate team. We have already heard Joe Burrow say this week’s game against the Raiders is a must-win. When Burrow and the Bengals are desperate, they typically look to a specific player: Ja’Marr Chase.

Chase leads the Bengals in touchdowns with seven, and he has scored a TD in five of his last six games after being held out of the endzone each of the first two weeks of the season. Chase might also be without his sidekick Tee Higgins in this one, which I think really fixes Burrow’s eyes on his former LSU teammate.

I also think the Bengals defense is bad enough that any NFL offense is going to put up some points against them, even the Raiders. We saw the Panthers score 24 against them earlier this season. So, I don’t foresee Cincinnati being able to just sit on a big lead for very long in this one, and believe they’ll be putting the ball in Chase’s hands as much as they can. When that happens, Chase usually finds his way to a TD.

• Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (-130 at Caesars)

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Drake London

Surprisingly, Drake London let me down last week. But I’m coming right back to him. In spite of London not scoring last week, he still saw six of Kirk Cousins’ 29 pass attempts, and Cousins did throw for three TDs.

London gets a juicy matchup in Week 9, as the Falcons take on the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed the second-most points in the league, and are 29th in net yards allowed per pass attempt. The Cowboys have also surrendered ten touchdowns through the air, in spite of three of their seven games being against Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, and Justin Fields.

With desperation starting to set in down in Dallas, I also like their offense to put up some points of their own, ensuring Atlanta has to keep their foot on the gas for most of the game. London has already scored a touchdown in five of eight games this season, and I love him to score a TD this Sunday at +125 odds.

• Pick: Drake London Anytime TD (+125 at FanDuel)

Taysom Hill

Taysom Hill has scored two touchdowns in his four games this season, but scored both of those TDs in the same game. However, Hill remains a real part of New Orleans’ offense, as he has seen six touches in three of four. I think he could be an even more prominent part of the offense in Week 9 as the Saints take on the Panthers, who have allowed the most points in the league.

I believe Hill will benefit from Derek Carr likely to be back under center, and Jamaal Williams nursing a groin injury. Not to mention, this coaching staff loves Hill and his do-it-all mentality. So, a week after forcing a safety to get two of their eight points, I also like the staff to look to reward him in a game where New Orleans should see plenty of opportunities in the red zone.

• Pick: Taysom Hill Anytime TD (+230 at DraftKings)

Brian Robinson Jr

Prior to this hamstring injury popping up, which resulted in him being a limited participant at Wednesday’s practice, Brian Robinson Jr’s anytime touchdown odds for Week 9 were as short as -150. I found him at +115 at FanDuel to find the endzone at the time of writing this, which I think is fantastic value.

I have kept this a half-unit bet because of the possibility that Robinson is actually limited this Sunday, but even when he has had limitations in the past, he seems to remain their goal line and short yardage back.

Robinson and the Commanders take on the Giants in Week 9. It’s their second time seeing the G-Men this season, where the first meeting marks Robinson’s best game of the season (so far). He rushed for a season-high 133 yards on 17 carries (7.8 YPC), but did not score a touchdown, as Washington only managed seven field goals on the day. It’s only one of two games this season where Robinson has failed to score a touchdown, as he has a TD in five of seven.

Though they have not given up many rushing TDs (just six), the Giants are one of the league’s worst defenses against the run, allowing a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry. The Commanders found themselves in the red zone on six of their seven drives in the two teams’ first meeting, and I like Washington to convert at least a few of those into touchdowns this time around. Robinson will account for at least one of those TDs.

• Pick: Brian Robinson Jr Anytime TD (+115 at FanDuel)

D’Andre Swift

After he cashed for me last week, I’m coming back to D’Andre Swift. He has actually now scored a TD in four straight games, and his usage has been very high during that stretch. Swift has seen at least 21 touches in three of the last four, with the outlier coming last week, which was largely the result of Swift not being involved in the passing game at all – he saw zero targets for the first time this season.

The Bears will take on the Cardinals this Sunday, and should not have any problems running the football. Arizona allows 4.6 yards per carry and have surrendered ten rushing touchdowns this season. While Caleb Williams’ rookie season continues to be a bit of a rollercoaster, Swift provides this offense with some stability.

I also suspect Chicago’s defense will ensure they don’t find themselves playing with a negative game script, ensuring Swift continues to see his 20ish touches again in Week 9.

• Pick: D’Andre Swift Anytime TD (+105 at DraftKings)

David Montgomery

There are few players more likely to score a touchdown each week than David Montgomery. I believe the only reason his odds aren’t shorter than -150 most weeks is because he shares the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs. But, as Detroit has shown all season, there is more than enough to go around for both of them.

Montgomery has scored a touchdown in six of seven games this season, and has totaled seven TDs on the season. He would likely have more if the Lions were forced to play competitive games more often. I think Green Bay will give them that this week, though.

At the time of writing this, it sounds like Jordan Love has a realistic shot of playing Sunday, but even if he doesn’t, Malik Willis has been more than serviceable when thrust into action. The Packers defense is only allowing 4.3 yards per carry, and have only surrendered seven touchdowns on the ground. But I throw those stats out the window when the Lions are coming to town. No team can match Detroit’s physicality and Montgomery is their hammer in the backfield.

I like him to add another touchdown this week in a big divisional matchup.

• Pick: David Montgomery Anytime TD (-125 at bet365)

Puka Nacua

It is quite clear that the LA Rams and Matthew Stafford want to get the football in Puka Nacua’s hands as often as possible. Nacua saw four targets in just a little over a quarter of play prior to getting injured in Week 1, and in his first game back, he saw nine targets while playing just over half of their offensive snaps.

Entering the Rams’ Week 9 matchup with the Seahawks, Nacua should have no limitations or snap count. I believe the result is going to be double-digit targets with his first touchdown of the season. We saw Nacua score a TD in three of his last four games (including playoffs) last year, and scored in one of his two games against Seattle last season.

There is no doubt Kyren Williams is who the Rams lean on in the red zone and goal line situations, but Nacua is plenty explosive to break one from outside the red zone. Seattle’s defense ranks 19th in points allowed and are very average against the pass.

• Pick: Puka Nacua Anytime TD (+160 at bet365)

Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson has scored a touchdown in five of seven games this season, but has been held out of the endzone in two of his last three. He has been just as involved in the offense recently, though, seeing at least eight targets in that three-game stretch.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Minnesota lost one 0f the two games where Jefferson did not log a touchdown, and recorded a narrow win in the other game with no Jefferson TD.

I like the Vikings to continue to prioritize getting Jefferson the ball this Sunday when they take on the Colts. Indianapolis has given up the ninth-most net yards per pass attempt, and they haven’t even played many great passing offenses. The Colts have seen Malik Willis (in his first start), Caleb Williams (in his third game), Justin Fields, Will Levis, and a mix of Tyler Huntley and Tim Boyle. They have seen CJ Stroud twice, but always seem to play him pretty tight. The only other QB they have seen was Trevor Lawrence, and the Jaguars scored 37 points while Lawrence threw for 371 yards.

I’m not here to say Sam Darnold is one of the league’s top QBs, but he’s better than most of the quarterbacks I just listed off. I like Darnold to have a good day against a not-so-great Colts secondary, with Jefferson being the guy who provides some of the big plays. I also expect Jefferson to benefit from a bit more space to work with TJ Hockenson expected back.

• Pick: Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (-108 at Caesars)

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Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt has scored a touchdown in three of his four games with the Chiefs this season. The only game he did not score was his first game with the team, when he was sharing the backfield. Hunt has seen at least 21 carries and at least 22 touches in each of those three games as Kansas City’s starting RB.

I don’t foresee that usage changing at all this week, as the Chiefs take on the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay is allowing 5.2 yards per carry (30th) and have given up the fifth-most points in the NFL. Their defense has been especially bad over the last month, allowing at least 27 points in each game, and were carved up for 41 against the Ravens two weeks ago.

Kansas City is going to move the ball and find themselves in the red zone a handful of times. Hunt will continue to be the guy they lean on when they get there, and I love him to add another TD in Week 9.

One sportsbook has Hunt listed as short as -250 to score a touchdown in this game. I’m not suggesting they should be the source of truth on this, but bet365 is offering notably longer odds than all other sportsbooks. Don’t wait until Monday night to lock this one in, as I feel every book is going to drift towards -200 odds.

• Pick: Kareem Hunt Anytime TD (-138 at bet365)

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The post NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 9: Predictions for TD Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

It’s time for another week of NFL parlay picks! My longshot parlay from last week was a dud, and injury robbed me of my higher-probability parlay too. With the betting gods owing me one after last week, I’m back in Week 8 with two more NFL parlays that I feel really good about!

After looking through all of the NFL betting lines for Week 8, I have constructed one longshot NFL parlay and one higher-probability NFL parlay that I’m playing. I have included some brief analysis on each pick from both parlays under the corresponding tables below.

Longshot Week 8 NFL Parlay

I put this parlay together at every major sports betting app with the intent of shopping for the best price, and found DraftKings to be the sportsbook with the best payout. A couple of the sportsbooks only do receiving yards in multiples of 25, and I didn’t want to do Evan Engram at 75+.

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A $5 bet on my longshot NFL parlay would potentially profit $432.58. Here’s a quick rundown on why I like each of the five legs in this longshot parlay.

When healthy, Evan Engram is one of Trevor Lawrence’s favorite targets. Since returning from a four-game absence due to injury, Engram has been targeted 15 times and has caught every one of those targets, totaling 137 yards across two games. He was a little bit quieter last week in Jacksonville’s blowout win over the Patriots, but Lawrence only threw 20 passes in the game. I think Lawrence will be forced into throwing a lot more against the Packers, who will be able to take advantage of Jacksonville’s awful pass defense. With extra opportunities, I think Engram for 60+ receiving yards is a great bet. The Jags TE has actually gone for 60+ receiving yards in six of his last nine games.

The second leg of this parlay is AJ Brown for 90+ receiving yards. This is a total he has eclipsed in two of three games this season, with his most recent game against the Giants being the only one he came up short (89 yards). In a Week 8 matchup against a Bengals team who not only scores points, but gives up points too, Brown should see more than the five targets from last week. I suspect Philadelphia comes in building a game plan around attacking the lousy Bengals secondary with Brown.

AJ Brown in single coverage this season —

• 16 targets
• 16 receptions
• 325 yards
• 3 TDs
• 158.3 rating when targetedpic.twitter.com/2h9Z4SIW6D

— Victor Williams (@ThePhillyPod) October 24, 2024

Cedric Tillman for 50+ receiving yards is the third leg of this NFL parlay. Tillman broke out last week, in what was Cleveland’s first game since trading Amari Cooper. The second-year wide receiver was targeted 12 times, second-most on the team, in the game and he turned the opportunities into eight catches for 81 yards. Two of those targets came from Jameis Winston, who will start for the Browns in Week 8, and Tillman hauled in one of them for 25 yards. With a much more serviceable QB under center, I like Tillman to continue having success, especially this Sunday against a Ravens defense that has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL. They’re also the best in the league against the run, so I don’t expect we’ll see Cleveland waste many plays running the ball, nor do I think they would have that luxury anyways.

Next up is the Panthers’ team total to be under 10.5 points. The Broncos defense that Carolina will face on Sunday has allowed the third-fewest points in the NFL, as well as the third-fewest yards. The Panthers have scored the fifth-fewest points in the league with the fourth-fewest total yards. But to make matters worse for Carolina, they’ll be sending Bryce Young out in Week 8, as Andy Dalton is recovering from an injury suffered in a car crash earlier this week. In the two games Young started this season, they scored 10 points against the Saints and three points against the Chargers. They totaled less than 200 yards of total offense in both of those games. I’m also not sure Bo Nix and the Broncos offense can put enough points on the board to allow for garbage time late in the game.

The final leg is a D’Andre Swift anytime TD, which I cover thoroughly in my Week 8 NFL TD picks.

Higher-Probability Week 8 NFL Parlay

My three-leg higher-probability parlay is best played at FanDuel for +125 odds. You can play this parlay as is at just about any sportsbook, but all the other come with a slightly worse payout.

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The first two legs of this parlay are both alternate spreads. The first is Lions -6.5. I think Detroit is covering the actual spread in their game, so feel very good about this alt spread. We want to get through seven, which is a significant number in football, and we are achieving that with -6.5. Tennessee is a very bad team whose defense is overrated, in my opinion. Their offense won’t be able to get much done against a good Detroit defense.

The second alt spread is Jets -2.5. The goal here was to get through three, which is another significant number in football. I don’t see how the Jets could botch this one. New England is playing awful football and they’re less than a week removed from London. This is New York’s chance to start getting things right.

Jordan Love for 200+ passing yards has been a near certainty in his time as the Packers QB. Love has accomplished this in 16 straight regular season games, and 19 of his 22 regular season starts over the last two years. This Sunday he gets a bad Jaguars defense that’s giving up the third-most net yards per pass attempt. Jacksoville’s offense has also started to put things together a little, which only helps ensure Love is forced into enough passing situations.

The post Free Week 8 NFL Parlay Picks: Get 86-1 Odds with This 5-Leg Parlay appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.