UNLV vs Boise State Prediction, Preview & Odds

• The #10 Boise State Broncos host the #20 UNLV Rebels in the 2024 Mountain West Championship Game on Friday
• Boise State won 29-24 at UNLV back on October 25 and also beat the Rebels in last year’s MW title game (44-20)
• Below, see the UNLV vs Boise State predictions and odds

A berth in the College Football Playoff bracket is on the line in the 2024 Mountain West title game when the #10 Boise State Broncos (10-1, 6-0 home, 6-6 ATS) host the #20 UNLV Rebels (10-2, 6-0 away, 7-5 ATS) at Albertsons Stadium at 6:00 pm MT/8:00 pm ET. A rematch of a hard-fought Week 9 game in Las Vegas, which Boise State won 29-24, the Broncos are listed as slight favorites to make it nine straight wins over the Rebels.

UNLV vs Boise State Odds

The Broncos are currently 4.0-point favorites roughly 24 hours ahead of kickoff and -190 on the moneyline. UNLV comes back as a +160 road underdog while the total is sitting at 57.5.  Odds as of Dec. 5 at ESPN Bet. Lock in the ESPN Bet promo code to land a bonus for conference championship week. 

This UNLV vs Boise State line has moved 1.5 points in the Rebels’ direction since Saturday night, when the Broncos opened as a 5.5-point home favorite.

UNLV vs Boise State H2H History

To say that the recent history between these teams is lopsided would be a massive understatement, at least in terms of wins and losses. Boise State has won eight straight games against UNLV dating back to 1977, which includes seven straight wins since 2011. The meeting earlier this year was the only one of those last seven games to finish with a margin in single digits.

In last year’s Mountain West title game, Boise State never trailed in a decisive 44-20 win. Former Heisman trophy favorite Ashton Jeanty rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Jeanty had another 128 yards and a touchdown in the win this season, though he needed a massive 33 carries to get there.

UNLV dual-threat QB Hajj-Malik Williams went 12-of-21 passing for 179 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, plus another 105 rushing yards and a TD in the loss to Boise State back in October.

UNLV vs Boise State Predictions

The first game between these teams was an instant classic with five lead changes. The Rebels took a 24-23 lead into the fourth quarter before a one-yard TD plunge from Ashton Jeanty gave Boise State the lead for good in a low-scoring final frame. The Broncos outgained the Rebels 394 yards to 367, but the Rebels averaged more yards per pass (8.1 to 6.3) and more yards per rush (5.2 to 4.6). One missed field goal and one interception from Hajj-Malik Williams proved the difference in a hyper-tight game.

The analytics also believe the difference between the team isn’t huge. Boise State is currently ranked 27th in ESPN’s FEI at +10.5 while UNLV is 40th at +6.4.

Thought this rematch is in Boise State, I am still siding with UNLV against the spread. The Rebels are a very strong team that has won three in a row by at least 11 points, and showed they were effectively Boise State’s equal in the earlier regular-season meeting. I want to see Ashton Jeanty in the College Football Playoff, and I do think the Broncos are going to get there. But four points is not an insignificant number, and a field-goal win for the Broncos is what I’m expecting.