The Golden State Warriors (14-9, 7-5 away) and Houston Rockets (16-8, 9-3 home) meet on Wednesday night at the Toyota Center with the final berth in the 2024 NBA Cup semifinals on the line. The winner will move onto face the OKC Thunder on Saturday in Las Vegas, and oddsmakers give the hometown Rockets a slight edge in Wednesday’s NBA odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:40 pm CT/9:40 pm ET.

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction

• Warriors moneyline (+108) at FanDuel – 2.0 units
  

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I believe in what the Rockets are building as a whole. They have a lot of talented,  still-young pieces that should have them in playoff contention for the next decade. But I don’t like this matchup. The Warriors are already 2-0 against Houston this season, including a 127-121 win on the road in early November and a 99-93 win at home just six days ago.

The Rockets were a very different team last year, but it’s worth noting that they were also 0-3 against the Dubs last season, losing by an average of 13 PPG.

Golden State’s defense has done a phenomenal job of keeping Alperun Sengun in check. The Turkish center has just 30 points combined in the first two games against Golden State.

The Warriors hit a rough patch, losing five in a row from Nov. 23 to Dec. 3, but that seems to be in the past. They’ve won two of their last three, including an impressive 114-106 victory over the surging Timberwolves last time out.

And it would be three wins in four for the Warriors if they had been able to hang onto a 113-106 lead against Denver with just four minutes remaining.

GSW vs HOU Player Props

NBA player props as of Dec. 11 at DraftKings. Claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on the NBA Cup tonight. 

The Rockets vs Warriors player props list Steph Curry (23.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 6.6 APG) with the highest point total of the night at 24.5 O/U followed by Houston center Alperen Sengun (18.5 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 5.3 APG) at 20.5 O/U. Sengun also has the highest rebound total at 10.5 O/U. No other player is over 7.5 O/U.

Fred VanVleet (16.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 5.9 APG) leads the assist totals at 6.5 O/U.

Best Warriors vs Rockets Odds

The Warriors vs Rockets spread is pretty consistent with most books listing Houston as two-point home favorites. The one book that has a different line is BetMGM, which has lowered it to Houston -1.5 (-115).

The best Warriors moneyline is currently +108 at FanDuel. The best Rockets moneyline is -125, which is available at a few different books, including Caesars, BetMGM, and bet365.

There is a full one-point range in the game total. It’s as high as 222.5 at BetMGM and as low as 221.5 at bet365 and DraftKings.

The NBA public betting trends for Wednesday strongly lean towards the Warriors and the over. Golden State is getting 70% of moneyline handle and 65% of ATS handle, while 75% of game-total money is on the over as of 12:57 pm ET.

The post Warriors vs Rockets Predictions, Player Props & Best Odds (Dec. 11) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Two of the hotter teams in the Association square off in the quarterfinals of the NBA Cup on Wednesday night as the Atlanta Hawks (13-12, 6-6 away, 10-15 ATS) visit the New York Knicks (15-9, 8-3 home, 11-12-1 ATS) at Madison Square Garden at 7:10 pm ET. Though the Hawks have certainly upped their game the past two weeks, the Knicks are still big favorites in Wednesday’s NBA odds.

Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks Odds

The Hawks vs Knicks odds favor New York by 7.5 points and set the home side as a -320 moneyline favorite, which amounts to a 76.19% implied win probability. The Hawks come back at +260 to win straight-up, a 27.78% implied win probability.  Odds as of Dec. 11 at ESPN Bet. New users can claim an ESPN Bet promo to get a bonus for the NBA Cup. Check out SBD’s ESPN Bet app review here. 

One of the reasons New York is laying so many points is injuries on the Atlanta side. Bogdan Bogdanovic (12.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.1 APG,) is questionable with a quad injury; Jalen Johnson (19.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 5.5 APG) is questionable with a shoulder injury, while Trae Young (20.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 12.2 APG) and De’Andre Hunter (19.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.3 APG) are both probable with Achilles and knee issues, respectively.

That quartet comprises four of Atlanta’s top-five scorers. Neither Bogdanovic nor Johnson played in Atlanta’s last game, an ugly 141-11 blowout at home against the Nuggets on Sunday, which ended Atlanta’s six-game win streak.

The Knicks aren’t fully healthy, either. Josh Hart (13.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 5.5 APG) is questionable due to a sprained ankle, while Karl-Anthony Towns (25.1 PPG, 13.3 RPG, 3.1 APG) is dealing with a knee injury and is listed as probable.

Both played last time out, a 115-108 win at Toronto on Monday, with Towns scoring a team-high 24 points and grabbing a game-high 15 rebounds while also dishing out six assists.

ATL vs NYK Player Props

Player props as of Dec. 11 at DraftKings. Lock in this DraftKings promo code to bet on Wednesday’s NBA props. 

Wednesday’s NBA player props list Jalen Brunson (25.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 7.8 APG) with a game-high point total of 27.5 followed by Towns at 26.5. Young has the highest total on the Atlanta side at just 21.5.

Towns has the highest rebound total at 12.5, which is three higher than any other player on the board.

Young, the NBA’s assist leader, has a massive assist total of 11.5. Young’s 12.2 APG average is a full two assists higher than any other player in the league.

Hawks vs Knicks Predictions

Atlanta went on an impressive run from Nov. 27 to Dec. 6. Not only did they win six in a row, those wins included two victories over the NBA-leading Cavaliers, plus the Bucks and the Lakers. But I have very little confidence the injury-riddled Hawks are going to maintain that level of play for any extended period of time. We already saw the first steps on the road to regression last time out.

With Johnson and Bogdanovic both questionable again, I expect a fairly decisive win for New York tonight on their home court, where they’ve won seven of their last eight. The one loss in that span was their most-recent home game against Detroit on Saturday (120-111). The Knicks haven’t lost back-to-back home games since Feb. 27 and 29 last season. A bounce-back effort is likely.

But with all the injuries on the Atlanta side, I expect Young to shoulder a bigger scoring load that he usually does, so I’m also betting the over on his point total at 21.5.

• Knicks -5.5 (-156) at FanDuel
• Young over 21.5 points (-110) at DraftKings

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NBA betting record: 30-32 (-3.38 units). All wagers one unit unless stated otherwise.

The post Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks Odds, Predictions & Player Props (Dec. 11) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A rematch from last year’s playoffs highlights the NBA Cup quarterfinals on Tuesday night as the Dallas Mavericks (16-8,8-5 away, 14-9-1 ATS) visit the OKC Thunder (18-5, 9-2 home, 14-9 ATS) at the Paycom Center at 8:40 pm CT/9:40 pm ET. Despite a run of three straight setbacks to Dallas, OKC is a 4.5-point favorite in Tuesday’s NBA odds.

Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Predictions

• Mavericks +4.5 (-110) at ESPN Bet
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Not only have the Mavericks been hot against OKC, they’re also the hottest team in the NBA overall entering play on Tuesday. Dallas has won seven straight games, three without Luka Doncic (28.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 8.1 APG), including a trio of wins over teams that are currently above .500 (Atlanta, Memphis, New York). Since Luka returned from a wrist injury on Dec. 1, he’s averaged 31.0 PPG, 10.0 RPG, and 9.5 APG in four straight wins.

In other words, the preseason favorite in the NBA MVP odds has picked up where he left off.

Fading the Thunder has been a dangerous proposition this season. Not only are they the top seed in the West right now, two games clear of Memphis, they also have the seventh-best ATS record in the Association at 14-9. Yet this Dallas team just seem to have OKC’s number. They went 2-1 straight-up in Oklahoma City during last year’s playoffs (winning the best-of-seven four games to two) and already beat the Thunder 121-119 in OKC this season without Luka.

The spread of 4.5 points is not insignificant. Dallas has a great chance to win this one straight-up, and I love them getting a handful of points.

DAL vs OKC Player Props

NBA player props from FanDuel on Dec. 10. 

SGA leads the Mavericks vs Thunder props at with a point total of 30.5. Doncic has the highest total on the Mavs’ side at 28.5. OKC early-season acquisition Isaiah Hartenstein has the highest rebound total at 11.5, three higher than any other player on the board. Hartenstein was picked up in an effort to fill Chet Holmgren’s minutes while the Thunder center works his way back from a hip injury.

Best Mavericks vs Thunder Odds

The Mavericks/Thunder spread is currently OKC -4.5 across the board with only slight variations in the odds. The vast majority of books have the line at -110 both ways, but OKC bettors can get the Thunder -4.5 at -108 at DraftKings.

On the moneyline, bet365 and ESPN Bet have the best price on Orlando winning straight-up at +155, while Caesars and DraftKings have the best OKC moneyline at -180.

There is a bigger range when it comes to the total. The O/U is as high as 231.5 (O -105/U -115) at BetMGM and as low as 230.5 (O -110 / U -110) at FanDuel.

Tuesday’s NBA public betting percentages illustrate two contrasting trends; the Thunder are getting 74% of moneyline handle but the Mavericks are getting 72% of ATS handle as 4.5-point underdogs.

The post Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Predictions, Player Props & Best Odds (Dec. 10) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The shorthanded Orlando Magic (17-9, 7-9 away, ATS) visit the surging Milwaukee  Bucks (12-11, 8-4 home, ATS) at Fiserv Forum at 6:10 pm CT/7:10 pm ET tonight in the quarterfinals of the 2024 NBA Cup. With the Magic missing their two leading scorers, Milwaukee is a big favorite in Tuesday’s NBA odds.

Magic vs Bucks Odds

Milwaukee is a 7.5-point home favorite and -290 on the moneyline in the Magic vs Bucks odds, while Orlando comes back at +240 to win and advance to Saturday’s semifinals, where either the Hawks or Knicks will be waiting. 

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Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NBA betting record: 28-30(-2.80 units). All wagers one unit unless stated otherwise.

Down Goes Franz

As if missing All-Star Paolo Banchero (29.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 5.6 APG in 5 GP this year) wasn’t bad enough, Orlando got more bad news on Friday when Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.7 APG) suffered a torn oblique during a 102-94 loss at Philadelphia.

Wagner will be out for four-to-six weeks. The Magic responded admirably in their first game without both their star scorers, taking down the Kevin Durant-less Suns 115-110, led by 26 points from Jalen Suggs.

The victory improved Orlando’s home record to a perfect 10-0, which stands in stark contrast to their 7-9 record in road games.

ORL vs MIL Player Props

NBA player props from DraftKings Sportsbook on Dec 10.

Giannis (32.5 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 6.2 APG) has the highest point total (29.5 O/U) and rebound total (11.5 O/U) of the night. After a relatively sluggish start to the season, Giannis as gone over 29.5 points in seven of his last eight games, averaging 34.4 PPG in that eight-game span. Giannis’ hot streak has coincided with Milwaukee’s surge up the East standings. After starting the year an ugly 4-9, they are now a game over .500 thanks to going 8-2 in their last ten.

Suggs (16.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.9 APG) leads the Magic players at 24.5 O/U. In Orlando’s only game without Wagner and Bachero this season, he had a team-high 26.

Magic vs Bucks Predictions

Orlando is running into Milwaukee at the wrong time and in the wrong place. They showed remarkable resilience last time out, maintaining their perfect home record without their two most-important players but that was a fatigued Phoenix team playing it’s second game in as many nights and third in four. Tonight, Orlando faces a rested and resurgent Bucks group that’s won seven of its last eight at Fiserv Forum.

• Bucks -3.5 (-170) at FanDuel
• Antetokounmpo over 29.5 points (-120) at DraftKings

The post Orlando Magic vs Milwaukee Bucks Odds, Predictions & Player Props (Dec 10) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 2024 NFL regular season is down to its final quarter and odds are out for Week 15. I have narrowed down the lines and found my three favorite NFL Week 15 ATS picks to target early on. The week starts with the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers meeting on TNF as both try to track down Seattle at the top of the NFC West. Coincidentally, that’s also where my NFL Week 15 ATS picks commence.

Early NFL Week 15 ATS Picks

In Week 15, I am taking three home teams to cover, starting with the undervalued Niners on Thursday Night Football and continuing with two squads playing out the string in the early window on Sunday.

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NFL Week 15 ATS Pick #1: 49ers -2.5 (-110) Over Rams

The Niners (6-7, 4-3 home, 5-8 ATS) have had a hard-luck season, battling significant injuries at every turn and suffering multiple late-game collapses. But against the odds, they still have a an outside chance to make the postseason. Brock Purdy and company ended a three-game losing streak in style last Sunday, stomping the Bears 38-13, and certainly didn’t look like a fatigued bunch playing out the string.

The Rams are also coming off an impressive performance, edging out the Bills 44-42 at home and overcoming a record-setting day from Josh Allen in the process. But we’re still talking about a team with a -34 point differential going on the road to face a 49ers group that’s getting a bit healthier and was picked by 99% of pundits to repeat as NFC West champs. I expect the Week 15 NFL odds to move in San Francisco’s direction as the week goes on and will very gladly take the Niners laying less than a field goal.

NFL Week 15 ATS Pick #2: Browns +7.5 (-155) Over Chiefs

The Chiefs (12-1, 5-1 away, 5-8 ATS) are 6-1 straight-up in their last seven games but haven’t covered a single one of those games. They are scraping by on last-second field goals and stingy defense.

That’s not to say Patrick Mahomes won’t put up a 40-burger sooner or later, but I seriously doubt this is going to be the week. First, it’s on the road against a supremely talented Cleveland defense. Second, temperatures are going to be near-freezing with rain in the forecast. It won’t be the whiteout that the Steelers and Browns played in a couple weeks ago, but the conditions certainly won’t be conducive to prolific air yardage, which is the easiest way to cover a big spread.

The Browns (3-10, 2-4 home, 4-9 ATS) have an ugly win/loss record but have played reasonably well at home in the second half of the season. In their last four home games, they’re 2-2 straight-up with wins over Pittsburgh (24-19) and Baltimore (29-24), a close loss to Cincinnati (21-14), and a stinker against the Chargers (27-10).

I’m betting this line up a 1.5 points to get over a TD and taking the Browns at a reasonable -155.

NFL Week 15 ATS Pick #3: Panthers -3.0 (+120) vs Cowboys

The Carolina Panthers (3-10, 2-5 home, 6-7 ATS) are arguably the most-improved team since the start of the season. They are only 2-3 straight-up over the last five weeks – including three straight losses – but 5-0 against the number. All three of those setbacks were one-score games against division-leading opponents: 30-27 vs Kansas City, 26-23 OT vs Tampa Bay, and 22-16 at Philadelphia. Think of Carolina as the anti-Chiefs. No matter the opponent, they’re putting up a decent fight.

Dallas (5-7, 4-2 away, 4-8 ATS), meanwhile, has shown a surprising amount of fight over the last two weeks, stunning the Commanders in Washington (34-26) on Nov. 24 thanks largely to special-teams play, and then taking care of the lowly Giants (27-20) on Thanksgiving. But the Cowboys will be making a long road trip on a short week after hosting the Bengals on MNF in Week 14. Only three teams in the league has a worse ATS record than the disappointing Cowboys. I expect Dallas to lose on MNF tonight, which will de facto eliminate them from the NFL playoff bracket (if not mathematically), which will in turn lead to an ugly effort in Carolina six days later.

The post NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A quiet Monday in college basketball is headlined by the Indiana Hoosiers (7-2, 6-0 home, 5-4 ATS) kicking off their conference schedule with a home game against the struggling Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4, 0-0 away, 1-7-2 ATS) at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall at 6:30 pm ET. The Minnesota vs Indiana odds favor the home-town Hoosiers by as many as 10.5.

Minnesota vs Indiana Predictions

•  Indiana -9.5 (-115) at BetMGM
  

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The Hoosiers are already 6-0 on their home court and every one of those six wins has come by at least 11 points. They haven’t played the most difficult home slate so far, but they do own lopsided wins over South Carolina (87-71), which ranks 68th at KenPom, and Providence (89-73), which ranks 81st. Both rate significantly better than Minnesota (111th) at this early stage of the season.

It’s hard to find a single team in the nation that’s had a more disappointing start to the year than the Gophers. Returning leading scorer and rebounder Dawson Garcia (17.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.6 APG last season) from a team that went 19-15 overall and even won a game in the NIT, better things were expected for Minnesota in Ben Johnson’s fourth season at the helm. They finished last year rated 78th at KenPom and one spot higher at Torvik, and entered this season 66th at the former.

They managed five wins in their first six games (all at home) with lone loss against #69 North Texas (54-51) but they have since lost three of their last four: 68-66 vs Wichita State (neutral), 57-51 vs Wake Forest (neutral), an 90-72 vs Michigan State (home). Their only win in that span was over #292 Bethune Cookman.

The Gophers play slowly (362nd our 364 DI teams in tempo) and can’t shoot the three (29.7%, 294th in the nation), which has led to them being held under 60 points in four games already this season.

No one is going to mistake Indiana for a national-championship contender after their first nine games, which include ugly losses to Gonzaga (89-73 neutral) and Louisville (89-61 neutral) but you also can’t argue with what the Hoosiers have done at home so far.

Returnees Malik Reneau (15.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and Mackenzie Mgbako (15.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG), plus highly-coveted transfer center Oumar Ballo (12.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG) represent one of the most-formidable front lines in the nation. And the Hoosiers have managed to navigate their early home schedule flawlessly without that trio even rebounding the ball all that well. IU sits 137th in offensive-rebound percentage and 187th at the defensive end.

MIN vs IND Player Props

Player props from FanDuel on Dec. 9. Check out SBD’s list of online betting banking methods. 

Minnesota forward Dawson Garcia leads the point totals at 18.5 O/U. The senior is averaging a career-best 19.0 PPG through ten games but he’s only gone over 18.5 in one of Minnesota’s losses, and has averaged just 13.5 PPG in the Gophers’ quartet of setbacks.

Reneau has the highest point total on the Indiana side at 15.5 while Ballo leads the rebound props at 9.5.

Best Minnesota vs Indiana Odds

The Minnesota vs Indiana odds show a decent range as of Monday afternoon. The spread is as high as 10.5 at ESPN Bet and as low as 9.5 at BetMGM.

The best moneyline option on the Hoosiers is a hyper-short -550 at Caesars, while the longest odds on Minnesota winning straight-up are +425 at bet365.

There is also a one-point range in the game total with bet365 on the low end at 139.5 with -110 odds both ways and BetMGM on the high end at 140.5 (U -115).

Indiana is getting the vast majority of money in the college basketball public betting splits: IU has attracted 99% of moneyline handle and 92% of ATS handle despite the short odds and big spread.

The post Minnesota vs Indiana Predictions, Player Props & Odds (Dec. 9) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Neither the Cincinnati Bengals (4-8, 3-3 away, 6-6 ATS) nor Dallas Cowboys (5-7, 1-5 home, 4-8 ATS) is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but it would take a miracle for either to crack the field and their Monday Night Football meeting on Dec. 9 (8:20 pm ET) will likely feature two rosters that have resigned themselves to a long offseason. That doesn’t mean we won’t see fireworks, though. Cincinnati is a neutral observer’s wet dream: all offense, no defense, and my Bengals vs Cowboys same-game parlay banks on Joe Burrow and company continuing to light-up the scoreboard.

Bengals vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay

All three legs of today’s Bengals/Cowboys SGP are -184 or shorter on their own, but all three together add-up to a +105 price tag.

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Bengals vs Cowboys SGP Pick #1: Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TDs

The first leg is going to be the most difficult to achieve, at least based on the odds. But Joe Burrow has thrown multiple TD passes in nine of 12 games so far this season and leads the NFL with 30 through 12 games (2.5 TDs per game).

Dallas’ secondary isn’t the weakest point of the Cowboy defense, but it isn’t one of the elite pass defenses in the NFL either. Playing on the fast track at AT&T Stadium, I love the chances of Burrow connecting with his star-studded receiving corps for multiple majors. I’m not in love with -184 odds, which carry an implied probability of 64.79, but that’s still a reasonable number based on Burrows numbers this year.

CIN vs DAL Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Over 41.5 Points

Chris Amberley’s Bengals vs Cowboys prediction listed over 49.5 points as his best bet for the game. I’ve lowered that number to a miniscule 41.5 before including it as the second leg in tonight’s SGP. Each of Cincinnati’s last fives games has sailed over that number. Each of Cincinnati’s last four games has featured at least 61 points and have averaged 64.3 PPG.

Dallas games have been considerably lower scoring than Cincinnati games this year, but even the low-scoring cowboys have had three straight games go over 44 points, and Cincinnati tends to dictate pace of play, for lack of a better term. The Bengal offense is as lethal as ever with Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown all healthy. They score fast and often, forcing opponents to keep up.

And that’s where the uber-compliant Cincinnati defense comes into play. Only the Carolina Panthers (29.8 PPG) are giving up more points than the Bengals (28.3 PPG) this year. John Hyslop is confident enough in the porousness of the Cincinnati defense that he included Cooper Rush over 1.5 passing touchdowns in his best Bengals vs Cowboys player props.

Bengals vs Cowboys SGP Pick #3: Ja’Marr Chase Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

LSU alums Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson have separated themselves from the field as the top-two receivers in the NFL, and Chase has a chance to feast on a mediocre Dallas secondary tonight. I’ve kept his receiving-yards target at an extremely manageable 50 yards, a number he’s hit in 10 of 12 games this season, and which is barely half of his average receiving yards per game (95.2).

The post Bengals vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay for Monday Night Football appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Just four weeks remain in the 2024 NFL regular season and all the byes are over. With another Sunday almost in the books, oddsmakers have posted the NFL Week 15 odds for all 16 games on the schedule, which includes a Monday Night Football two-pack featuring the Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings, and Atlanta Falcons vs Las Vegas Raiders. The table below lists the opening Week 15 NFL odds, including spread, total, and moneyline, for all 16 games.

Opening NFL Week 15 Odds

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Biggest NFL Week 15 Point Spread: Ravens (-13.5) vs Giants

The biggest Week 15 spread comes from the Ravens vs Giants clash at MetLife Stadium, where Baltimore is a 13.5-point road favorite. No other Week 15 spread is over a touchdown.

The Giants have turned into the laughing stock of the league this year, tied with the Raiders for the worst record in the NFL at 2-11. Losers of eight straight, New York has scored just 38 points in its last three games combined, most-recently falling 14-11 at home to New Orleans in Week 14. Lest you think the G-Men should get a few points for home-field advantage, they are now 0-7 straight-up at home and 2-5 against the spread.

The 8-5 Ravens are coming off a Week 14 bye.

Highest NFL Week 15 Game Total: Bills vs Lions (52.5)

As with the ATS odds, the game totals show one matchup way higher than the others. The Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions heavyweight clash in Motown has opened with a game total of 52.5, which is five points higher than any other Week 15.

To some extent, the Lions’ inflated totals were still a product off their all-offense-no-defense approach from last season. Their D, despite significant injuries, has played much better this season. But it showed signs of cracking in Week 14’s 34-31 shootout victory over the Packers, and the Bills have one of the best scoring offenses in the league, averaging 29.5 PPG prior to their Week 14 meeting with the Rams.

Lowest NFL Week 15 Game Total: Falcons vs Raiders (41.5)

The lowest total on the board is 41.5 in Falcons vs Raiders, which wraps up Week 15 as the second kickoff of the MNF twin bill. It’s somewhat surprising to see this as the lowest total. As bad as the Las Vegas offense is (18.2 PPG), it’s defense is worse, surrendering 27.8 PPG, second-most in the league.

Atlanta is also below average in scoring on offense (21.4 PPG, 19th) but, like the Falcons, are even worse on defense (24.3 PPG, 22nd).

The post Opening NFL Week 15 Odds – Spread, Total, Moneyline for All 16 Games appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Just a game back of Kansas City for the #1 seed in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills (10-2, 4-2 away, ATS) bring a seven-game win streak into SoFi Stadium on Sunday afternoon as they visit the Los Angeles Rams (6-6, 3-3 home, ATS), who are only a game back of Seattle for the NFC West lead. The Bills vs Rams odds favor the visitors by 3.5 points as they close in on their sixth straight playoff berth. Kickoff is set for 1:25 pm PT/4:25 pm ET.

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams Predictions

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While this is a tough cross-country road trip for the Bills, Buffalo is the demonstrably better team in basically every measurable metric. The Bills’ +131 point differential dwarfs the Rams -36 number. Buffalo currently sits third in the NFL in DVOA at +26.1 while the Rams are 16th at +0.1%.

The Bills are a bit more banged-up with WR Keon Coleman and TE Dalton Kincaid both questionable, but they’re also in great shape injury-wise this deep into the season. The return of middle linebacker Matt Milano, who had five tackles in last week’s 35-10 win over the 49ers, was a huge boon to a defense that’s looked susceptible at times this year.

Matthew Stafford is having a decent season for the Rams (248.6 YPG, 17 TD, 7 INT, 94.2 passer rating) but it’s nothing in comparison to what Josh Allen is doing on the Buffalo side. Allen is averaging 224.3 passing yards and 52.5 rushing yards per game and has found the end zone 20 times through the air and another eight times with his legs, while throwing just five picks. His passer rating of 100.3 is the second-highest of his career, and he’s on pace to finish with a double-digit improvement in his interception total compared to last season, when threw 18.

All of Allen’s exploits have made him the -243 favorite, on average, in the NFL MVP odds.

BUF vs LAR Player Props

The Bills vs Rams player props list both starting QBs with very similar passing numbers. Matthew Stafford has a slightly higher passing yards O/U (255.5) than counterpart Josh Allen (244.5). Both are slight favorites to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns.

Rams bellcow running back Kyren Williams leads the rushing props at 67.5 yards O/U, while Buffalo RB1 James Cook is close behind him at 61.5 O/U.

Best Bills vs Rams Odds

The Bills vs Rams point spread is 3.5 across the board but there are minor variations in the odds. Bills bettors can get Buffalo -3.5 at -105 odds at BetMGM while Rams bettors can get LA +3.5 at -105 at DraftKings.

The longest Rams moneyline is +160, which is available at multiple books, including ESPN Bet, FanDuel, and DraftKings. The best Buffalo moneyline is -180 at bet365. All other sportsbooks have the Bills at -190 or shorter.

There is only a half-point range in the game total in the latest NFL odds. The best option for over bettors at the moment is 49.5 (-110) at BetMGM. The best option for under bettors is 50.0 (-115) at Caesars.

The NFL public betting percentages strongly favor the Bills both against the spread and on the moneyline. The Bills are getting 94% of moneyline handle and 71% of ATS handle as of 1:15 pm ET.

The post Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams Predictions, Player Props & Odds (Week 14) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Conference championships have been decided and the selection committee has cemented the first-even 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. The top-four seeds, who receive byes to the quarterfinals, are the #1 Oregon Ducks, #2 Georgia Bulldogs, #3, Boise State Broncos, and #4 Arizona State Sun Devils. The four first-round games will feature the #12 Clemson Tigers at #5 Texas Longhorns, #11 SMU Mustangs at #6 Penn State Nittany Lions, #10 Indiana Hoosiers at #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and #9 Tennessee at #8 Ohio State. The table below lists the opening odds for all four first-round matchups.

College Football Playoff: Round 1 Odds

The opening lines for the quartet of first-round games are all 6.5 points or higher, with the home team heavily favored in all four matchups.

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The latest national championship odds continue to favor Oregon (+320) and Georgia (+380) after the bracket reveal. Texas (+400), Ohio State (+450) and Penn State (+750) round out the top-five favorites. After Penn State, there is a fairly big drop to sixth-favorite Notre Dame (+1200) and then an even bigger drop to seventh-favorite Tennessee (+2500).

The longest shots on the board are SMU (+3000), Clemson (+4000), Arizona State (+4000), Indiana (+4000), and Boise State (+5000).

Early CFP Round 1 Predictions

I was stunned at just how big the opening lines are for these games, and I lean to all four underdogs. Yes, home-field advantage will be a real thing in the Round 1 matchups, but every one of the better-seeded teams already has a straight-up loss on its home field this season.

Texas fell 30-15 to Georgia on Oct. 19 in a game when they were decidedly the second-best team on the field. Penn State lost 20-13 to Ohio State on Nov. 2, getting out-gained 358 to 270 yards in the process. Notre Dame lost 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois in a game that will go down as the single-most puzzling result of the season. And Ohio State lost its fourth straight iteration of The Game in Columbus against Michigan (20-13).

Bookmark the college football public betting splits to see where the early money is going on the first-round games and how the lines are shifting.

The post Opening College Football Round 1 Playoff Odds & Early Predictions appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A rocky start to the season for the Minnesota Timberwolves (12-10, 5-6 away, 9-13 ATS) seems to be a thing of the past. The Wolves have won four straight, the last three by 17 or more points, all against teams that are over .500. On Sunday night, the Golden State Warriors (13-9, 6-4 home, 13-9 ATS) will look to bring Minnesota’s hot streak to an end when they host the Timberwolves for the second time in three days at the Chase Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 5:40 pm PT/8:40 pm ET and Sunday’s NBA odds list Golden State as a slight one-point favorite.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors Predictions

• Timberwolves moneyline (+100) at FanDuel
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It would be harder to pit a hotter team against a colder team in the NBA right now. Not only have the T-Wolves won four in a row, the last three all by massive margins over quality opponents, but the Warriors have managed just one victory in their last seven games.

Scoring has been the biggest issue for the Dubs. A couple weeks ago, the Warriors were the only team ranked in the top five in both O-Rating and D-Rating. Now, they’ve fallen all the way to 15th, and they’ve been held under 100 points in three of their last seven games.

On Friday, Minnesota took a lopsided 107-90 decision at the Chase Center, holding the Warriors to just 39.0% from the field and 28.2% from three. Steph Curry had a team-high 23 points for Golden State but was just 6-of-17 from the field.

Anthony Edwards, meanwhile, had his best game in weeks for Minnesota, dropping a game-high 30 with nine assists, four rebounds, two blocks, and a steal while shooting 11-of-18 from the floor (61.1%).

The Wolves finished +7 on the glass (48-41) and generated 22 Warriors turnovers.

While the recent trends for both teams go against what we saw from them at the start of the season, this regression/progression was expected. On paper, the Timberwolves are absolutely stacked, and the last four games have shown the ceiling for their roster with Julius Randle in the fold.

I expect recent trends to continue on Sunday night and Edwards to keep working his way out of an early-season funk.

MIN vs GSW Player Props

GSW Player Props

NBA player props from FanDuel on Dec. 8. 

Sunday’s NBA player props list Anthony Edwards (26.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.0 APG) with the highest point total of the night at 25.5 O/U, followed closely by Curry (22.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 6.5 APG) at 24.5 O/U.

Rudy Gobert (10.9 PPG, 11.1 RPG) has the highest rebound total on the board at 12.5 O/U. No other player has a total over 6.5.

Best Timberwolves vs Warriors Odds

The Timberwolves vs Warriors odds are fairly static across the board as of Sunday morning. The best ATS price on the T-Wolves is +1.5 (-115) at ESPN Bet, while the best spread option for Warriors bettors is -1.0 (-108) at DraftKings.

Most sportsbooks have the moneyline at Minnesota -105/Golden State -115. The main exception is FanDuel, which has a better moneyline option for the T-Wolves at even-money.

There is a one-point range in the Timberwolves/Warriors game total. BetMGM has best option for under bettors at 216.5 (U -110), while DraftKings has the best option for over bettors at 215.5 (O -112).

Sunday’s NBA public betting percentages show a conflicted betting public. The Timberwolves are getting 52% of ATS handle while the Warriors are getting 48%. Minnesota has a bigger percentage of the spread money, attracting 63% of ATS handle so far.

The public is also hammering the over, with 92% of money on the over so far.

The post Timberwolves vs Warriors Predictions, Player Props & Best Odds (Dec. 8) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A berth in the College Football Playoff bracket is on the line in the 2024 Mountain West title game when the #10 Boise State Broncos (10-1, 6-0 home, 6-6 ATS) host the #20 UNLV Rebels (10-2, 6-0 away, 7-5 ATS) at Albertsons Stadium at 6:00 pm MT/8:00 pm ET. A rematch of a hard-fought Week 9 game in Las Vegas, which Boise State won 29-24, the Broncos are listed as slight favorites to make it nine straight wins over the Rebels.

UNLV vs Boise State Odds

The Broncos are currently 4.0-point favorites roughly 24 hours ahead of kickoff and -190 on the moneyline. UNLV comes back as a +160 road underdog while the total is sitting at 57.5.  Odds as of Dec. 5 at ESPN Bet. Lock in the ESPN Bet promo code to land a bonus for conference championship week. 

This UNLV vs Boise State line has moved 1.5 points in the Rebels’ direction since Saturday night, when the Broncos opened as a 5.5-point home favorite.

UNLV vs Boise State H2H History

To say that the recent history between these teams is lopsided would be a massive understatement, at least in terms of wins and losses. Boise State has won eight straight games against UNLV dating back to 1977, which includes seven straight wins since 2011. The meeting earlier this year was the only one of those last seven games to finish with a margin in single digits.

In last year’s Mountain West title game, Boise State never trailed in a decisive 44-20 win. Former Heisman trophy favorite Ashton Jeanty rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Jeanty had another 128 yards and a touchdown in the win this season, though he needed a massive 33 carries to get there.

UNLV dual-threat QB Hajj-Malik Williams went 12-of-21 passing for 179 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, plus another 105 rushing yards and a TD in the loss to Boise State back in October.

UNLV vs Boise State Predictions

The first game between these teams was an instant classic with five lead changes. The Rebels took a 24-23 lead into the fourth quarter before a one-yard TD plunge from Ashton Jeanty gave Boise State the lead for good in a low-scoring final frame. The Broncos outgained the Rebels 394 yards to 367, but the Rebels averaged more yards per pass (8.1 to 6.3) and more yards per rush (5.2 to 4.6). One missed field goal and one interception from Hajj-Malik Williams proved the difference in a hyper-tight game.

The analytics also believe the difference between the team isn’t huge. Boise State is currently ranked 27th in ESPN’s FEI at +10.5 while UNLV is 40th at +6.4.

Thought this rematch is in Boise State, I am still siding with UNLV against the spread. The Rebels are a very strong team that has won three in a row by at least 11 points, and showed they were effectively Boise State’s equal in the earlier regular-season meeting. I want to see Ashton Jeanty in the College Football Playoff, and I do think the Broncos are going to get there. But four points is not an insignificant number, and a field-goal win for the Broncos is what I’m expecting.

The post UNLV vs Boise State Prediction, Preview & Odds appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A heavyweight NFC North battle starts Week 14 in the NFL as the Green Bay Packers (9-3, 4-1 away, 6-6 ATS) visit the NFC-leading Detroit Lions (11-1, 5-1 home, 9-3 ATS) on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET. After opening as 4.5-point home favorites, Detroit is now as low as 3.0-point chalk on TNF.

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Predictions

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The Packers vs Lions odds have been steadily moving in Green Bay’s direction all week. Detroit was a -225 moneyline favorite when the Week 14 NFL odds opened on Sunday night, and that number has come down as far -170 at ESPN Bet. That’s the difference between a 69.23% implied win probability and a 62.96% implied win probability, which is a massive shift for a Week 14 NFL game.

In my opinion, the line has moved too far towards the Packers. The movement isn’t without some justification. As Ian Jones pointed out in his Packers vs Lions same-game parlay, the Detroit defense is severely depleted. A handful of players, including Aidan Hutchinson, the erstwhile favorite in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds, were already on IR before last week, and now DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike are all out in Week 14.

But this type of adversity is nothing new for the Lions, especially on defense. Detroit has been playing at far less than 100% for the last two months, and the results have still be borderline immaculate. The Lions have only allowed more than 20 points once in the last six game (26-23 win over Houston) and have averaged just 13.8 PPG in that span. That includes a 24-14 win over Green Bay at Lambeau in Week 9, a game the Lions led 24-6 entering the fourth quarter.

Yes, the Packers wound up drastically out-gaining Detroit in that Week 9 tilt (411 to 261) but a lot of that was garbage-time yardage. Detroit was full-value for the lopsided victory, largely because of their defense, which had a second-quarter pick-six courtesy of Kerby Joseph.

KERBY JOSEPH PICK-6! His 6th INT of the season

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It’s certainly harder to defend the fast track at Ford Field than it is the tundra at Lambeau, but even at home, Detroit is only surrendering 18.2 PPG, which would be the fourth-best scoring defense in the league as a whole.

And the Detroit offense isn’t nearly as banged up. The loss of left tackle Taylor Decker (knee) certainly hurts but he also missed the Thanksgiving game against the Bears, so this isn’t novel territory for Detroit. The Lions surrendered just one sack without Decker, and Chicago’s pass rush grades out significantly better than Green Bay’s (13th vs 23rd at PFF).

Eric Rosales expects at least one major from Detroit RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs, including a Gibbs anytime touchdown (-150) among his favorite Packers vs Lions player props tonight.

Best Packers vs Lions Odds for TNF

With so much line movement over the course of the week, there is still a pretty decent range in the Packers vs Lions odds roughly four hours before kickoff. The spread is still as high as 3.5 and as low as 3.0. Green Bay ATS bettors can find their best option – Green Bay +3.5 (-115) – at BetMGM right now. Lions backers should head to DraftKings to get Detroit -3.0 at -118 odds.

On the moneyline, ESPN Bet has the best price on a Lions straight-up victory at -170, while bet365 has the longest Green Bay moneyline at +155.

One area where sportsbooks are basically in complete agreement is the game total. Every book has the over/under at 51.5 and all but DraftKings has the odds at -110 both ways. DK represents the best option for the under, shifting the line slightly to U 51.5 (-108).

The post Packers vs Lions Predictions & Best Odds for Thursday Night Football (Dec. 5) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

An intriguing interconference matchup kicks off Thursday night’s NBA slate as Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (11-8, 5-4 away, 7-11-1 ATS) travel to Ohio to face Donovan Mitchell and the NBA-leading Cleveland Cavaliers (19-3, 12-1 home, 16-6 ATS) at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse at 7:10 pm ET.

Nuggets vs Cavaliers Prediction

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The Nuggets have been shockingly inconsistent all season, and especially in the last two weeks. Denver hasn’t won back-to-back games since Nov. 8th and 10th, and has alternated wins and losses over its last eight contests. They needed a miraculous nine-point comeback in the final six minutes against Golden State last time out to emerge with a 119-115 win at home.

Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic was all-world in the victory, dropping 38 points and 10 rebounds to go along with six assists and  five steals.

The Cavaliers’ play has dipped a bit since their stunning 15-0 start, going just 4-3 in their last seven. But that includes a 115-111 win at home over the reigning-champion Boston Celtics on Sunday, spearheaded by a game-high 35 points from Donovan Mitchell (24.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.1 APG).

Mitchell had just 19 points on 6-of-15 shooting last time out against the Wizards on Tuesday, a lopsided 118-87 Cavaliers victory, and his scoring average of 24.3 PPG is more than two points below his point total for the night.

DEN vs CLE Player Props

NBA player props from DraftKings on Dec. 5. 

Coming off a massive 38-point, 10-rebound, six-assist, five-steal game in the comeback victory against the Warriors, Jokic leads both the point totals (28.5 O/U), rebound totals (11.5 O/U), and assist totals (8.5 O/U) on Thursday night.

Mitchell has the highest point total for the Cavs at 26.5 while Jarrett Allen is the only other player with double-digit rebound total at 10.5.

Best Nuggets vs Cavaliers Odds

The Nuggets/Cavaliers point spread is sitting at 4.5 across the board. The best price on the Cavaliers to cover is currently -106 at FanDuel while a handful of books have Nuggets +4.5 at -110, including ESPN Bet and bet365.

ESPN Bet also has the best moneyline option for the Cavaliers, listing Cleveland -175 to win straight-up. Caesars has the longest odds on a Nuggets victory at +158.

There is a one-point range in the game total at the moment. Most books, including BetMGM, have the total at 234.5 with -110 odds both ways, but FanDuel has it a point lower at 233.5 with -110 odds on each side.

The NBA public betting splits for Thursday heavily lean to the Cavs. Cleveland is getting 72% of moneyline handle and 68% of ATS handle as of 1:10 pm ET. The public was also favoring the over, putting 61% of game-total money on the over so far.

The post Nuggets vs Cavaliers Predictions, Player Props & Odds for Dec. 5 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The worst team in the NBA each of the last two seasons, the young and improving Detroit Pistons (9-14, 5-7 away, 10-12 ATS) head to Beantown on Wednesday night for a meeting with the reigning-champion Boston Celtics (17-4, 8-2 home, 9-12 ATS) at TD Garden at 7:40 pm ET. As they usually are, the Celtics are big home favorites against the Pistons, laying 14.5 points in Wednesday’s NBA odds.

Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics Predictions

• Pistons +14.5 (-105) at Caesars
• Cunningham over 22.5 points (-115) at DraftKings 
  

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Detroit has been one of the most-improved teams in the league this year compared to last. Not only are they just five wins show of their entire win total from last season (14), they have made huge leaps in the analytics. The Pistons have jumped all the way from 29th in Net Rating (-9.0) last season to 18th this season (-2.6). They are currently just half a game out of a spot in the Play-In Tournament and have a better per-game point differential (-2.7) than the three teams immediately above them in the standings: the Bulls (-4.3), Nets (-4.2), and Pacers (-4.6).

Fading Boston is not for the faint of heart. They finished last season with the best point differential in the league by a wide margin (+11.4, no other team was better than +7.4) and are approaching that number again this year, currently sitting at +10.2. They also have the second-best Net Rating (+10.2), trailing only OKC (+10.8), and their last three victories have all come by at least nine points.

But Detroit played Boston tough early last season (losing 128-122 in OT) and I expect a similarly competitive game on Wednesday, especially with Boston being banged-up. Both Jayson Tatum (28.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 5.6 APG) and Jrue Holiday (11.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.9 AGP) are listed as questionable with knee injuries.

I’m also backing Cade Cunningham (23.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 8.8 APG) to go over 22.5 points. The 2021 first-overall pick is having a career-best season and has gone over 22.5 points in four straight. Last time out, he had 23 points in just 33 minutes in a 128-107 loss to Milwaukee.

DET vs BOS Player Props

NBA player props from DraftKings on Dec. 4. Check out SBD’s list of betting apps that accept Venmo. 

With Tatum’s status in question, he is the only Boston player listed in the Pistons/Celtics player props. The C’s leading scorer has a game-high point total of 26.5 while Cunningham leads the Pistons at the aforementioned 22.5.

Best Pistons vs Celtics Odds

The Pistons/Celtics spread is currently Boston -14.5 across the board. The best price on the Celtics to cover is -105 at BetMGM, while Caesars has the best price on the Pistons to cover at -105 as well.

The best Boston moneyline is a hyper-short -1100, which is available at bet365. The longest odds on a Pistons victory (+750) can be found at ESPN Bet and DraftKings.

There is a half-point range in the game total at the moment. Over bettors can get O 221.0 (-110) at best365 while under bettors should take U 221.5 (-110) at Caesars.

Wednesday’s NBA public betting splits show the public hammering the C’s despite the short moneyline/massive spread. Boston is getting 89% of moneyline handle and 74% of ATS handle roughly five hours before tip-off.

The post Pistons vs Celtics Predictions, Player Props & Best Odds (Dec. 4) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

On a stacked Wednesday night of college basketball, the marquee matchup sees the #2 Auburn Tigers (7-0, away, ATS) visiting the #9 Duke Blue Devils (5-2, home, ATS) at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC, at 9:15 pm ET. Auburn already beat the Houston Cougars at the Toyota Center in Houston but this will be their first on-campus road game of the year, and oddsmakers give the Blue Devils a slight on their home court.

Auburn vs Duke Odds

The Auburn vs Duke odds list the Blue Devils as 2.5-point favorites and in Wednesday’s college basketball odds and -150 on the moneyline.

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This game pits two of the top-five favorites in the Wooden Award odds against each other: Auburn senior Johni Broome (20.7 PPG, 12.9 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.9 BPG) and Duke freshman Cooper Flagg (15.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.3 BPG).

Auburn is coming off three wins at the Maui Invitational: 83-81 over then-#5 Iowa State (overcoming an 18-point halftime deficit), 85-72 over then-#12 North Carolina, and 90-76 over Memphis in the finale. Broome had at least 21 points and 10 rebounds in all three games, averaging 21.6 PPG and a stunning 15.0 RPG during the tournament.

Duke’s top-rated recruiting class has had an up-and-down start while navigating a fairly difficult schedule. They own five lopsided wins (all by  14 or more points), including on the road at then-#17 Arizona (69-55). But they’ve also dropped neutral-court games to then-#19 Kentucky (77-72 in Atlanta) and #1 Kansas (75-72 in Las Vegas).

Flagg leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists, while fellow freshman guard Kon Knueppel is second in scoring 13.4 PPG followed by junior guard Tyrese Proctor is third at 12.4 PPG. Duke currently has the top-ranked defense in terms of efficiency at KenPom, but sits 22nd on offense. Auburn is first on offense and eighth on defense. Tennessee is the only other team that’s top-ten in both categories.

AUB vs DUKE Player Props

Player props from FanDuel on Dec. 4. See SBD’s list of online betting banking methods. 

Broome has the highest point total of the night at 20.5 O/U while Flagg isn’t far behind at 17.5 O/U. Broome, who’s been an absolute beast on the glass lately, also leads the rebounding props at 11.5.

Auburn vs Duke Predictions

I have no doubt that Auburn is going to be in the mix for a #1 seed when the 2025 NCAA Tournament rolls around. They’ve already jumped from +2750 to roughly +1300 in the March Madness championship odds since the start of the season. But Duke is a more-talented team with the size and athleticism to defend Broome.

Cameron Indoor also provides, arguably, the best home-court advantage in the entire nation. Duke hasn’t played any top-100 teams at home yet this season, but they’ve also won all four home games by at least 22 points and by an average of 37.3 PPG. This young Duke squad clearly enjoys the comforts of home.

AUB vs DUKE picks: Duke moneyline (-142) at FanDuel  – 1.42 units to win 1 unit

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 8-5 (+2.67 units). All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

The post Auburn vs Duke Odds, Player Props & Predictions (Dec. 4) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Call in a win for the schedule-makers in Week 14 as the NFC-leading Detroit Lions (11-1, 5-1 home, 9-3 ATS) get set to host the division-rival Green Bay Packers (9-3, 4-1 away, 6-6 ATS) at Ford Field on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is slated for 8:15 pm ET and the Lions, who opened as 4.5-point home chalk, are laying only 3.5 points as of Tuesday morning.

Packers vs Lions Odds

After opening as -225 chalk on Sunday night, Detroit is now just -185 on the moneyline, while the Packers have improved from +188 to +155 road underdogs.

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Early Packers vs Lions Public Betting Splits

While the early money was coming in on the Packers, which moved the line down a point, the public is now hammering the Lions with the spread at just 3.5. As of last Tuesday, Detroit was getting 76% of moneyline handle and 56% of ATS handle in the NFL public betting splits. Only the Denver Broncos (10-3 ATS) have a better record against the spread than the Lions this season, and Detroit will move into a tie with the Broncos if they cover on TNF.

The public is also siding with the under of 51.5, which is the highest total on the board in the Week 14 NFL odds. Currently, 65% of early money is on the under, but that hasn’t shifted the total at all. The line opened at 51.5 last Sunday and remains there. Detroit is just 5-7 O/U this year after going 13-7 last year (including playoffs). Green Bay is 5-6-1 O/U.

Green Bay vs Detroit H2H History

While the Packers still own a commanding 106-77-7 all-time head-to-head record against the Lions, Detroit has dominated this NFC North rivalry recently. The Lions have won five of the last six against the Packers, including a convincing 24-14 win at Lambeau earlier this season. The Lions dominated that game almost from the opening kick, taking a 17-3 lead into halftime and stretching it to 24-3 in the third quarter.

Green Bay did win in Detroit last season though (29-22), getting an outstanding performance from Jordan Love, who tied his career high with three touchdown passes on the day while also posting a 125.5 passer rating.

Packers vs Lions Picks

• Lions -3.5 (-105)
• Over 51.5 (-110) 

No offense to the Packers, they’re a solid team that deserves the playoff berth coming their way, but the Lions are an absolute truck. Detroit rates first in overall DVOA (43.2%) and grades out as the top team at PFF (93.4). And both metrics give the Lions a sizable gap on the field. Green Bay sits fifth overall in DVOA at 21.3%, but the gap between Detroit and Green Bay (21.9%) is roughly the same as the gap between Green Bay and 18th-ranked Seattle.

The Lions, despite being 11-1, will feel like this is a must-win game if they’re going to achieve their ultimate goal of bringing the franchise its first Super Bowl. The Vikings and Eagles are both 10-2 and breathing down Detroit’s neck for the one and only bye in the NFC.

The atmosphere at Ford Field is going to be electric, and I expect Dan Campbell’s Lions to come up big in a playoff-type environment.

The post Packers vs Lions Odds, Lines & Pick for TNF (Week 14) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A dream start to the season has suddenly turned sour for the Golden State Warriors (12-7, 7-4 away, 11-8 ATS), who bring a four-game losing streak to the Mile High City on Tuesday night as they prepare to do battle with the underperforming Denver Nuggets (10-8, 5-4 home, 7-10-1 ATS) at Ball Arena at 8:10 pm MT/10:10 pm ET. With the Warriors battling significant injuries, the Nuggets are listed as 4.5 or 5.0-point favorites in Tuesday’s NBA odds.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Prediction

• Nuggets -4.5 (-115) at BetMGM
• Jokic over 12.5 rebounds (-115) at DraftKings
  

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  Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NBA betting record: 25-25 (-0.19 units). All wagers one unit unless stated otherwise.

As mediocre as Denver has been so far this season, they will eventually right the ship and battle for top seed in the West yet again. They’re too talented not too. And there is a decent chance that turnaround starts on Tuesday when the Nugs return from a two-game road trip, eager to stem a two-game home losing streak. Aaron Gordon, who returned from a month-long absence in Sunday’s 126-122 loss at the Clippers, is listed as “probable” and will be a big help to a team that sits just 13th in Rebound% a year after finishing sixth in that category.

The Warriors, meanwhile, have dropped four in a row and are likely to be without Draymond Green (8.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.9 APG) tonight due to calf tightness. Making matter worse, Steph Curry (22.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 6.3 APG) is “probable” due to a lingering knee injury. Curry missed the Dubs’ 105-101 loss at home to OKC last Wednesday before returning in their 113-105 road loss at Phoenix, scoring 23 points on just 8-of-21 shooting (38.1%) in 32 minutes.

I’m also betting Jokic to go over 12.5 rebounds at -115. The Warriors play at a fast pace (fifth-fastest in the NBA), have been missing a ton of shots lately, and are likely to be missing their second-leading rebounder in Green (6.3 RPG), leaving Kevon Looney to battle with Jokic in the post.

All the variables point to Jokic having a huge night on the glass.

GSW vs DEN Player Props

NBA player props from DraftKings on Dec. 3. See the full list of DraftKings legal states.

With Curry’s status not set in stone, the Warriors/Nuggets player props are a little on the lighter side, especially for Dubs players. Jokic is listed with the highest point total of the night at 28.5 followed by Curry (24.5) and Murray (18.5). Andrew Wiggins (17.5) is the only other Golden State player on the board.

Jokic, per usual, also has the highest rebound total (12.5) and assist total (9.5) of the night.

Best Warriors vs Nuggets Odds

The Warriors vs Nuggets odds favor Denver by either 4.5 or 5.0 points depending on the sportsbook. The best ATS odds for the Warriors at the moment are at Caesars, where Golden State +5.0 is priced at -105. The best ATS odds on the Nuggets are at BetMGM, where Denver -4.5 is sitting at -115.

The best moneyline on the Warriors is +165 at bet365, while the best moneyline on the Nuggets is -185 at DraftKings. All other books have Denver at -190 or shorter.

There is a one-point range in the game total. FanDuel and BetMGM are on the low end at 237.5 with -110 odds each way. ESPN Bet and bet365 are on the high end at 238.5, again with -110 odds both ways.

The NBA public betting splits for Tuesday are almost evenly split when it comes to the spread (Denver is gettin 51% of ATS handle) but are hammering the Nuggets to win straight-up; Denver is getting 81% of moneyline handle as of 11:35 am ET.

The post Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Predictions, Player Props & Best Odds (Dec. 3) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The Mark Pope era is off to a strong start for the Kentucky Wildcats (7-0, 0-0 away, 4-3 ATS), who are 7-0 including a neutral-court win over Duke. But the new-look Wildcats will get their first taste of a hostile road environment on Tuesday when they visit the Clemson Tigers (7-1, 5-0 home, 4-4 ATS) at Littlejohn Coliseum at 9:30 pm ET.

Kentucky vs Clemson Odds

Kentucky is a slight 1.5-point road favorites in Tuesday’s college basketball odds and -135 on the moneyline. Clemson comes back as a +115 home underdog while the game total is sitting at 155.5.

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Clemson is 4-4 O/U this season, averaging 142.5 PPG. Kentucky, though, is 5-2 O/U and averaging 164.8 PPG.

The Wildcats lost every meaningful contributor from last year’s team, which went 23-8 in the regular season before bowing out in their first game of the SEC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament (as a #3 seed). Some departed for the NBA and more followed John Calipari to Arkansas. Former BYU boss Mark Pope hit the transfer portal hard, landing four of the top-60 available transfers, which included bringing standout sixth-man Jaxson Robinson (14.2 PPG, 2.5 RPG) from BYU.

The results have been outstanding so far. Seven different Wildcats are scoring in double-figures seven games into the season, led by , and they already own a 77-72 neutral-court win over Duke as 5.5-point underdogs. Though Duke is the only top-100 team they’ve played. Their other six victories have all been by 19 or more points, however.

Kentucky is already back among the top-ten favorites in the March Madness championship odds at +2100 after starting the season as a +3500 longshot.

Expectations are fairly high in Clemson. Coming off an Elite Eight berth and returning the likes of Chase Hunter and Ian Schieffelin, the Tigers were picked to finish fourth in the ACC preseason coaches poll, ahead of Virginia, Pitt, Miami, and NC State.

Brad Brownell’s group hasn’t disappointed in the early going, running up a 7-1 record, winning all five of their games at home. The only blemish is an 84-71 road loss at Boise State as 3.5-point underdogs.

UK vs CLEM Player Props

Player props from ESPN Bet on Dec. 3. 

Clemson’s Chase Hunter (16.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.4 APG) has the highest point total of the night at 19.5 while Otega Oweh (15.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.4 APG) leads the Wildcats at 16.5.

Clemson forward Ian Schieffelin (12.5 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 3.6 APG) has the highest rebound total at 11.5. No one else on the board is over 5.5.

Kentucky vs Clemson Predictions

Mark Pope has done a phenomenal job of turning a barren roster obliterated by transfers into a semblance of a national-championship contender. And it’s stunning how quickly the Wildcats seem to have built chemistry with a group of guys who’ve never played together.

But Clemson is very good team returning many of the key pieces from a group that went 24-12 last year, earned a #6 seed in the tourney, and made it all the way to the Elite Eight. The Tigers’ only loss this season was a true road game at Boise State and all five of their home wins have come by 13 or more points. They beat two reasonably good teams at the Sunshine Slam in Dayton (70-55 vs San Francisco, 75-67 vs Penn State) and are good value as a home underdog against Pope’s newly assembled Wildcats.

• UK vs CLEM Pick: Clemson moneyline (+115) 

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 7-5 (+1.52 units). All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

The post Kentucky vs Clemson Odds, Player Props & Predictions (Dec. 3) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The last week of the season with byes, NFL Week 14 includes 13 games, starting the the Green Bay Packers (8-3) vs Detroit Lions (10-1) on Thursday Night Football and culminating with an ugly MNF tilt between the underperforming Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) and borderline-unwatchable Dallas Cowboys (5-7). Luckly, Bengals/Cowboys is included in my three favorite NFL Week 14 ATS picks, which will add to the watchability.

Early NFL Week 14 ATS Picks

I’m taking three underdogs again this week and moving the line in all three.  Odds as of Dec. 3. Claim the best sportsbook promotions for NFL Week 14. 

Week 14 ATS Pick #1: Panthers +14.5 (-155) at Eagles

Here’s something I didn’t think I’d say this season: the Carolina Panthers are not that bad. Carolina is 2-2 straight-up in its last four and 4-0 against the spread. Their two setbacks in that span were a last-second 30-27 loss to Kansas City (as 10.5-point underdogs) and a 26-23 OT loss to Tampa Bay (as 6.5-point underdogs).

Now the Panthers are catching 12.5 points at the Eagles, and you can move the line up to +14.5 at -155 odds at BetMGM.

I have nothing negative to say about the Eagles, but they don’t play in the highest-scoring games (44.8 PPG on average) and their tendency to run the ball (NFL-best 188.9 rushing yards per game) churns clock and shortens games.

Week 14 ATS Pick #2: Chargers +3.5 (-100) vs Chiefs

The Chiefs are not playing like a two-time defending Super Bowl champion. While their 11-1 record is tied with Detroit for the best record in the league, their +54 point differential isn’t even in the top ten, and its 18 points worse than the 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers (+72).

Kansas City enters on a two-game win streak but those wins were by three points and two points against the Panthers (30-27) and Raiders (19-17), who are a combined 5-19. The Chiefs are an ugly 5-7 ATS and have lost six in a row against the number.

The Chargers, on the other hand, have the fourth-best ATS record in the league (8-4) and have covered five or their last six. LAC has also played reasonably well away from home, going 4-2 away so far.

Week 14 ATS Pick #3: Bengals vs Cowboys +3.5 (+130)

The Bengals are broken, at least on defense. Cincinnati’s 44-38 loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday was the fourth time in five games the defense conceded 34 or more points. Only Carolina (30.5 PPG) is allowing more points per game than the Bengals (28.3).

Facing a Cooper Rush-led Dallas offense might be just the remedy, and Joe Burrow might absolutely tee-off on a bad Cowboy defense that is tied with Cincinnati for second-worse in the league (28.3 PPG). But there is just no way I can lay points with the Bengals right now given how brutally their defense is playing.

Another reason I’m fading Cincinnati is that their playoff hopes are dead. Not mathematically, but realistically. Even before last week’s loss to Pittsburgh, their playoff chances were on life support. Now it will take a miracle of epic proportions for 4-8 Cincinnati to catch 7-5 Denver and leapfrog 5-7 Miami and 6-7 Indianapolis in the process. This might be the week the majority of the disappointed Bengals roster quits on the season.

The post NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.